News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The nest is full of nothing when the bird has flown

Ian Anderson

 

USDA announced at 8 am CDT

  • 120K tons of new crop US beans sold to China
  • 135K tons of US new crop beans sold to unknown
  • 840K tons of US SRW wheat sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery
  • 120K tons of US new crop corn sold to Mexico

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 at 1238 ¼
  • CZ up 5 at 496 ½
  • WU up 2 ½ at 662 ½
  • SMZ up 4.10 at 362.00
  • BOZ down 21 at 4583
  • RRU down 8 at 1487.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,969
  • CZ 18,319
  • WU 2,513
  • SMZ 5,383
  • BOZ 8,476
  • RRU 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 7-9 lower

 

Dollar and crude oil lower. Stock market, gold, and silver higher.

 

Eurozone finance ministers meet today in Brussels

 

Palm oil down 10. Chinese grain markets lower except palm oil was unchanged

 

Taiwan seeks 60K US, South American, or South African corn for Sept shipment

 

Jordan seeks 150K feed barley optional origin for Nov –Jan shipment

 

Maldives seeks 9K rice and 6K wheat flour

 

Hearing last week that China bought 1 US bean cargo for October shipment, bought 1 Canadian bean cargo for October shipment, bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo for April-May shipment and heard rumors of China buying 1 cargo of Argentine beans for August shipment

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 7/05/13 8.3% of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop has been harvested vs. 6.7% a year ago – In Mato Grosso 14% of the second corn crop has been harvested

 

Argentine truckers are on strike today

 

Strike of sailors in port in Rosario San Lorenzo

 

Argentina’s government invoked a rarely used law Friday that will force companies to sell their stocks of wheat and flour, as President Cristina Kirchner tries to contain rising bread prices in an economy suffering from years of double-digit inflation. – Dow Jones

 

Argentine Ag Minister said as of Friday 64% of Argentina’s wheat crop has been planted vs. 57% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Minister said as of Friday 100% of Argentina’s bean crop has been harvested vs. 95% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Minister said as of Friday 90% of the corn crop has been harvested vs. 85% a year ago

 

Purdue University agronomist said IN early wheat harvest showing yield of 110 BPA vs. 2012 average yield of 67 BPA

 

North Carolina State University agronomist said NC early wheat yields at 60-100 BPA vs. 2012 average yield of 57 BPA

 

Analysts said that Japan should resume buying US western white wheat as early as August

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 52.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 91.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.0 MMT

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 49.5-51.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.5-52.5 MMT

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 83-87.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85-89 MMT

 

As of July 4th India has planted grain on 8.32 MH vs. 1.90 MH a year ago

 

Algeria customs data showed Algeria imported 2.451 MMT of wheat between Jan – May down 5.2% from a year ago

 

Thai Commerce Minster estimated July Thailand rice exports at 500K tons

 

Favorable Midwest weather

 

Rains are delaying US winter wheat harvest

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 364.90

 

88 new ethanol receipts were registered Friday afternoon

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Iowa Falls, IA

 

71 rice receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • KC wheat 48 with the date at 7/02/13 – Term house stopped 13, ADM house issued 22 and stopped 29
  • Chicago wheat 2 with the date at 3/18/13
  • Ethanol 88 with the date at 6/24/13 – ADM house stopped 31
  • Rice 45 with the date current
  • No corn
  • No bean oil
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No meal

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT – did not come out Friday due to the US holiday on Thursday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean good to excellent ratings to go up 1% this afternoon
  • Chinese economic data comes out tonight/tomorrow
  • Holiday in Argentina tomorrow
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their monthly Brazilian crop report previously
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.3 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean exports at 36.78 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 meal exports at 14.93 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean oil exports at 1.75 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn crop at 78.5 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.56 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 rice crop at 11.92 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 cotton crop at 326,000 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • On July 10th Brazilian dockers will stop operations in major ports on July 11th port workers will strike on all Brazilian ports
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with July 1-10 Malaysian export estimates on July 10th
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out on July 10th with their June data report. Based on a Reuters survey here are estimates for the report
    • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.47  MMT vs. May output of  1.384 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.74 MMT vs. May stocks of 1.816 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.45 MMT vs. May exports of  1.412 MMT
  • FOMC to read minutes from 6/18-6/19 meeting on Wednesday
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out July 11th at 11 am CDT – USDA does not release survey of corn and bean output until August report – surveys for the report will come out later in the day today
  • Last trading day for July futures is July 12th at noon CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg