News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Justice without force is powerless; force without justice is tyrannical.

– Blaise Pascal

 

USDA announced 120K new crop US corn sold to unknown

 

USDA announced 120K ‘13/14 US SRW wheat sold to China

 

Opening calls – this is just a guess

  • Beans  old crop 1-2 higher new crop 5-10 lower
  • Corn 3-6 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil mixed
  • Rice  steady better

 

Dollar, stock market, and crude sharply higher. Silver and gold lower

 

Nikkei up 2.076%

Hang Seng up 1.886%

Shanghai Index up .057%

 

ECB left rates unchanged yesterday at .50% as expected

 

China’s State Information Center said yesterday they expect China’s economic growth will remain steady in the second half of 2013 with the GDP at 7.6%

 

US June Unemployment report came out this morning

  • June Nonfarm payrolls +195K expecting +160K
  • June unemployment rate 7.6% expecting 7.5%
  • May Nonfarm payrolls revised to +195K from +175K

 

Yesterday –  Palm oil up 5. Chinese grain markets higher

 

Today – Palm oil up 13 Chinese grain markets higher except for oils were lower

 

South Korea lifts ban on US wheat imports

 

Jordan bought 100K tons of wheat optional origin for Oct/Dec shipment

 

Brazil’s truckers strike ended yesterday.

 

Favorable US crop weather

 

18 new ethanol receipts were registered Wednesday afternoon

 

69 bean oil receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon  out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

118 rice receipts canceled Wednesday afternoon

 

USDA attaché in China estimates

  • ‘13/14 China wheat crop at 118 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 121 MMT
  • ‘13/14 China wheat imports at 4.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 3.5 MMT- highest in 9 years
  • ‘13/14 China corn crop at 210 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 212.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn imports estimated at 5.0 MMT up 67% from a year ago
  • ‘13/14 bean imports at 67.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ’12/13 bean imports at 59.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 12.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean planted area at 6.8 MH

 

China Industry Analysts Chinese Crush Breakdown

  • Total crush volume for the week June 22-28 at 1,312,200 tons down 5.59% from a week ago
  • Total crush capacity utilization for the week June 22-28 at 51.03% vs. 54.05% a week ago
  • Total crush volume Oct 1st 2012-June 28th 2013 at 44,050,600 tons up .45% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume Jan 1st 2013-June 28th 2013 at 28,488,020 tons up 2.70% from a year ago
  • As of June 28th China’s import bean stocks at 4.825 MMT vs. 4.6173 MMT a week ago
  • Estimated China’s June bean imports at 7.2768 MMT
  • Estimated China’s July bean imports at 7.5 MMT

 

Buenos Aires weekly report from yesterday

  • Argentine corn harvest 84.1% complete vs. 76.9% a week ago and vs. 81% a year ago
  • Argentine corn crop estimated at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine wheat planting is 66.2% complete vs. 52.8% a week ago and vs. 57.9% a year ago
  • Argentine wheat area estimated at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 5 with the date at 7/02/13
  • KC wheat 212 with the date at 7/02/13 House ADM stopped 100 House Term stopped 47
  • Ethanol 40 with the date at 5/20/13
  • Wheat 2 with the date at 2/27/13
  • No beans, bean oil, meal, or corn

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 593,000 (expecting 400-800K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 233,100 ‘13/14 81,400 (expecting 250-500K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 120,600 ‘13/14 249,100 (expecting 200-500K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 116,300 ‘13/14 4,200 (expecting 50-125K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 1,600 (expecting 0-10K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 593,000 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for China (239,300 MT, including 165,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (122,900 MT), Nigeria (99,900 MT, including 7,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (60,500 MT), and Ecuador (32,800 MT, including 27,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and 3,400 MT switched from Peru). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (107,100 MT). Exports of 688,500 MT were primarily to China (233,000 MT), Brazil (89,000 MT), Thailand (76,200 MT), Japan (66,900 MT), Mexico (54,000 MT), Ecuador (48,300 MT), and the Philippines (28,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 233,100 MT for 2012/2013 were down 31 percent from the previous week, but up 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (146,600 MT, including 94,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), Venezuela (70,900 MT, including 31,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (32,000 MT), Panama (16,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (14,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (62,700 MT). Net sales of 81,400 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for unknown destinations (69,000 MT) and Mexico (10,800 MT). Decreases were reported for Japan (7,900 MT). Exports of 353,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (240,600 MT), Mexico (60,500 MT), Venezuela (31,900 MT), and the Dominican Republic (15,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 120,600 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were for Mexico (39,900 MT), Indonesia (28,900 MT, including 25,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT), unknown destinations (24,500 MT), Taiwan (11,900 MT), and Japan (8,700 MT). Net sales of 249,100 MT for 2013/2014 were for unknown destinations (196,500 MT) and Mexico (52,600 MT). Exports of 115,900 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (48,600 MT), Mexico (29,500 MT), Indonesia (29,300 MT), Vietnam (4,500 MT), and Taiwan (2,200 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 116,300 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for the Philippines (59,200 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Mexico (10,200 MT), Panama (7,900 MT), Canada (7,600 MT), and Israel (7,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (7,500 MT), Bangladesh (600 MT), Nicaragua (500 MT), and Ecuador (200 MT). Net sales of 4,200 MT for 2013/2014 were for Canada. Exports of 86,300 MT were down 39 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (32,300 MT), Ecuador (29,900 MT), Canada (14,400 MT), the Philippines (3,200 MT), and Bangladesh (2,200 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,600 MT for 2012/2013 were down 45 percent from the previous week and 87 percent and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nicaragua (800 MT), Trinidad (700 MT), and Australia (100 MT). Exports of 5,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (2,500 MT), Mexico (900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Nicaragua (800 MT).

 

 

Open interest as of Wednesday close

  • CN 11,586 open, down 1,576
  • CZ 544,359 open, up 9,458
  • Total corn 1,123,422 open, up 13,942
  • SN 7,349 open, down 780
  • SX 335,062 open, down 1,007
  • Total beans 526,319 open, up 3,248
  • SMN 6,667 open, down 1,251
  • SMZ 155,301 open, down 1,296
  • Total meal 291,515 open, down 2,648
  • BON 4,005 open, down 1,191
  • BOZ 161,344 open, down 1,364
  • Total bean oil 336,637 open, down 2,834
  • WN 1,764 open, down 620
  • WU 205,897 open, up 2,321
  • Total wheat 414,350 open, up 15

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • CONAB comes out July 9th with their monthly Brazilian crop report previously
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.3 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean exports at 36.78 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 meal exports at 14.93 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean oil exports at 1.75 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn crop at 78.5 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.56 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 rice crop at 11.92 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 cotton crop at 326,000 tons
  • On July 10th Brazilian dockers will stop operations in major ports on July 11th port workers will strike on all Brazilian ports
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with July 1-10 Malaysian export estimates on July 10th
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out July 11th at 11 am CDT – USDA does not release survey of corn and bean output until August report
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out next week with their June data report. In May
    • Palm oil output was at 1.384 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks was at 1.816 MMT- Expecting June stocks to fall to 1.68-1.78 MMT
    • Palm oil exports was at 1.412 MMT
  • Last trading day for July futures is July 12th at noon CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg