News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest stars in the world, but if they don’t play together, the club won’t be worth a dime”

– Babe Ruth

 

USDA announced 360K tons of SRW US wheat sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery – This had been rumored in the market since Monday

 

Grain markets close at noon CDT today. Grain markets do not reopen until Friday morning at 830 am CDT .

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with their US 2013 crop production estimates. Previous estimates were

  • All wheat crop estimated at 2.057 BB
  • All wheat yield estimated at 44.8 BPA
  • Corn crop estimated at 14.078 BB vs. USDA estimate of 14.005 BB
  • Corn yield estimated at 160.9 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 156.5 BPA
  • Bean crop estimated at 3.366 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.390 BB
  • Bean yield estimated at 43.9 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 44.5 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 12 at 1254 ½
  • CZ up 5 ¼ at 508
  • WU up 10 ¾ at 669
  • SMZ up 2.80 at 368.70
  • BOZ up 35 at 4597
  • RRU down 2.50 at 1527.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,386
  • CZ 13,632
  • WU 8,640
  • SMZ 4,181
  • BOZ 7,715
  • RRU 92

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 11-13 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 10-12 higher
  • Meal 2-3 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Crude, gold, and silver higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .306%

Hang Seng down 2.475%

Shanghai Index down .611%

All world stock markets lower

 

China’s June non-manufacturing PMI came out this morning at 53.9% vs. 54.3% in May

 

HSBC said China’s June non-manufacturing PMI is at 51.3% vs. 51.2% in May

 

Political turmoil in Egypt

 

Political crisis in Portugal

 

S&P downgraded long-term ratings on Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 9.4 MB expecting a draw of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 183K expecting a build of 600K
  • Distillates a draw of 2.3 MB expecting a build of 1.2 MB

 

Palm oil up 26. Chinese grain markets higher except for oils were lower

 

CNGOIC said China bought 3 cargoes of US new crop corn .

 

CNGOIC said China has bought a total of 2.8 MMT of new crop US corn this year

 

China bought 300K tons of new crop Australian wheat for Jan shipment

 

Hearing China bought another cargo of South American bean oil yesterday for reserves for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Japan bought 42,810 tons of US feed wheat and 32,250 tons of Australian feed barley via SBS tender for October shipment

 

Japan seeks 200K feed barley and 120K feed wheat via SBS tender for October shipment

 

PED virus (swine virus kills piglets) has been found on 2 hog farms in North Carolina

 

Brazil truckers strike continues. Strike ends tomorrow at 6 am local time

 

Russia sold 28,340 tons of intervention grain today making the total since 10/23/12 at 3,671,228 tons

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of July 3rd Ukraine has harvested 6.0 MMT of grain on 2.6 MH with an average yield of 2.3 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 3.04 MMT of grain on 1.74 MH with an average yield of 1.75 TPH

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s July grain exports at 500K tons vs. 1.0 MMT a month ago

 

Indonesia has been buying eyeing Australian wheat

 

ANZ Research expects Indonesia’s ‘13/14 wheat imports to rise 15% this season

 

Ideal Midwest crop weather.

 

32 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon 1 out of Bunge Decatur IN, 17 out of Cargill Buffalo IA, and 14 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

50 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Brazil Trade Ministry – Brazil June exports

  • Beans 6.35 MMT vs. 7.325 MMT in May and vs. 4.392 MMT in June 2012. – Shipped 4.9 MMT of beans to China in June vs. 6.1 MMT in May and vs. 3.1 MMT in June 2012
  • Meal 1.32 MMT vs. 1.5 MMT in May and vs. 1.485 MMT in June 2012
  • Bean oil 110K vs. 200K in May and vs. 158K in June 2012
  • Corn 368,900
  • January – June Brazil exported 8.615 MMT of corn vs. 1.82 MMT a year ago

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 269 with the date current
  • KC wheat 820 with the date current- ADM house stopped 253, Term house stopped 181
  • Chicago wheat 2 with the date moving to 2/22/13
  • Rice 157 with the date moving to 7/01/13
  • Bean oil 153 with the date moving to 6/18
  • No beans, corn, or meal

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1257 ¼
  • SX 100 day 1255 ¼
  • SMZ 200 day 364.00

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 13,284 open, down 2,301
  • CZ 535,100 open, up 6,990
  • Total corn 1,109,843 open, up 8,023
  • SN 8,211 open, down 6914
  • SX 336,113 open, down 3,317
  • Total beans 522,802 open, down 4,471.
  • SMN 7,997 open, down 1,244
  • SMZ 156,675 open, up 6
  • Total meal 294,521  down, 2,696
  • BON 5,196 open, down 738
  • BOZ 162,742 open, up 2,723
  • Total bean oil 339,541 open, up 2,736
  • WN 2,410 open, down 774
  • WU 203,678 open, up 9,288
  • Total wheat 414,524 open, up 20,114

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • See attachment for 4th of July holiday trading schedule- Markets will close today at noon CDT and will not reopen until Friday July 5th at 830 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.6 MB
    • Gas a build of 600K
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with US bean, corn and wheat production estimates
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 11 am CDT expecting +74 B (due to US holiday on Thursday)
  • ECB meets on Thursday ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • US June unemployment report comes out Friday July 5th at 730 am CDT
  • CONAB comes out July 9th with their monthly Brazilian crop report previously
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.3 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean exports at 36.78 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 meal exports at 14.93 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean oil exports at 1.75 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn crop at 78.5 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.56 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 rice crop at 11.92 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 cotton crop at 326,000 tons
  • Brazil port workers to strike on July 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out with July 1-10 Malaysian export estimates on July 10th
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out July 11th at 11 am CDT – USDA does not release survey of corn and bean output until August report
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Board comes out next week with their June data report. In May
    • Palm oil output was at 1.384 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks was at 1.816 MMT- Expecting June stocks to fall to 1.68-1.78 MMT
    • Palm oil exports was at 1.412 MMT
  • Last trading day for July futures is July 12th at noon CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg