News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Egypt in for wheat for August shipment – Should have results by 9 am CDT

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ¾ at 1249
  • CZ up 4 ½ at 505 3/4
  • WU up 9 ½ at 664 1/2
  • SMZ up 3.30 at 369.30
  • BOZ down 14 at 4554
  • RRU down 4 at 1541

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,200
  • CZ 16,526
  • WU 11,280
  • SMZ 5,306
  • BOZ 9,292
  • RRU 69

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 8-10 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and crude higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 1.778%

Hang Seng down .695%

Shanghai Index up .570%

 

Palm oil down 4. Chinese grain markets higher

 

South Korea NOFI bought 124K corn for Nov shipment 55K from Black Sea region and 69K from Brazil

 

South Korea KFA bought 55K Black Sea origin corn for Nov shipment

 

South Korea millers will meet this week to discuss ending ban on US white wheat

 

No weekly tender from Japan this week

 

TALK yesterday China bought 3-4 cargoes of South American bean oil for Jan-March 2014 shipment for reserves

 

TALK yesterday China private buyers bought at least 2 cargos of US new crop corn

 

Brazil Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 6.57 MMT of beans in June vs. 7.95 MMT (record) in May

 

Brazilian truckers strike continues through Thursday at 6 am local time

 

Brazilian union port workers announced they will be a nationwide strike on July 10th

 

Ideal weather conditions in Midwest

 

Dec corn testing psychological support of $5 the low overnight was 500 ¼

 

100 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 64 with the date moving to 6/14
  • Rice 528 with the date moving to 6/27
  • Wheat 2 with the date moving to 1/14/13
  • KC wheat 821 with the date at 5/28/13 – ADM house issued 821.
  • Minneapolis wheat 600 with the date at 6/28/13
  • No beans, corn, or meal

 

Iowa corn planting is 99% complete

Wisconsin corn planting is 96% complete

 

Weekly US Crop Progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 67% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago (market was expecting a 2-3% increase from a week ago) and vs. 48% a year ago
    • MI good to excellent ratings up 9% from a week ago at 76%
    • IN good to excellent rating up  7% from a week ago at 79%
    • OH good to excellent condition up 7% from a week ago at 85%
    • KS down 8% from a week ago to 59%
    • WI down 2% from a week ago at 60%
    • IL unchanged from a week ago at 69%
    • IN up 4% from a week ago at 57%
  • Condition poor to very poor 8% unchanged from a week ago
  • Silking 3% vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Beans – this was the last week the USDA will report bean planting progress

  • Condition 67% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago (market expecting a 2-3% increase from a week ago) and vs. 45% a year ago
    • MO up 4% from a week ago at 59%
    • IA up 3% from a week ago at 56%
    • MI down 3% from a week ago at 64%
    • IL up 3% from a week ago at 72%
  • Poor to very poor condition 7% unchanged from a week ago
  • Planted 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 98% 5 year average (market was expecting 95-99% complete)- There is still 1.48 MA of US beans that have not been planted
    • IA bean planting 96% complete vs. 90% a week ago
    • MN bean planting 96% complete
    • ND bean planting 95% complete
    • WI bean planting 93% complete
  • Emerged 91% vs. 81% a week ago and vs. 94% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 68% down 2% from a week ago (market was expecting steady to 2% higher) vs. 71% a year ago
  • Emerged 93% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average
  • Headed 18% vs. 69% a year ago and vs. 32% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 34% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • Harvested 43% vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 52% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 66% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 72% a year ago
  • Headed 7% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 10% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 47% good to excellent up 4% from a week ago and vs. 47% a year ago
  • Squaring 37% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 45% 5 year average
  • Setting bolls 6% vs. 13% a year ago and vs. 11% 5 year average

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 15,565 open, down 6,990
  • CZ 528,298 open, up 6,307
  • Total corn 1,101,923 open, up  7,217
  • SN 8,902 open, down 1,259
  • SX 339,567 open, down 9,375
  • Total beans 526,957 open, down 4,909
  • SMN 9,237 open, down 1,826
  • SMZ 156,816 open, down 1,634
  • Total meal 297,399 open, down 3,434
  • BON 5,934 open, down 1,583
  • BOZ 160,032 open, down 1,296
  • Total bean oil 336,834 open, down 1,527
  • WN 3,184 open, down 1,654
  • WU 194,437 open, up 5,646
  • Total wheat 394,682 open, up 7,609

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • See attachment for 4th of July holiday trading schedule- Markets will close tomorrow at noon CDT and will not reopen until Friday July 5th at 830 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 3.2 MB
    • Gas a build of 500K
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with US bean, corn and wheat production estimates
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow (due to US holiday on Thursday)
  • ECB meets on Thursday ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT
  • US June unemployment report comes out Friday July 5th
  • CONAB comes out July 9th with their month crop report
  • USDA July supply and demand and crop production report comes out July 11th at 11 am CDT – USDA does not release survey of corn and bean output until August report
  • Last trading day for July futures is July 12th at noon CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg