News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Just because I don’t care doesn’t mean I don’t understand.

Homer Simpson

 

Kansas City wheat begins trading at the CBOT today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ½ at 1257 ½
  • CZ down 5 ¾ at 505 ¼
  • WU up 2 ¼ at 660
  • SMZ up .50 at 374.50
  • BOZ up 34 at 4546
  • RRU up .50 at 1559.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 20,061.
  • CZ 32,449
  • WU 6,437
  • SMZ 7,430
  • BOZ 10,656
  • RRU 80

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal steady to 1 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar lower. Stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver higher

 

Nikkei up 1.281%

Hang Seng up 1.777%

Shanghai index up .812%

Most world stock markets higher

 

China’s HSBC final June PMI at 48.2 (9 month low)

 

China’s official final June PMI at 50.1 as expected vs. 50.8 in May

 

Eurozone official final June PMI at 48.8 expecting 48.7 and vs. 48.3 in May

 

German official final June PMI at 48.6 expecting 48.7 and vs. 49.4 in May

 

UK official June PMI at 52.5 expecting 51.3 and vs. 51.5 in May

 

France official June PMI at 48.4 expecting 48.3 and vs. 46.4 in May

 

Palm oil down 1. Chinese grain markets lower except oils were higher.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s June palm oil exports at 1.32 MMT up 5.4% from May

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June palm oil exports at 1.35 MMT up 7% from a month ago

 

Iraq seeks 30K rice from Thailand, US, Argentina, or Uruguay

 

South Korea CJ bought 15K Australian wheat for October shipment

 

Indonesia Stats Bureau estimated 2013 rice crop at 69.27 MMT vs. 69.06 MMT in 2012

 

Indonesia Stats Bureau estimated 2013 corn crop at 18.84 MMT vs. 19.39 MMT

 

Indonesia Stats Bureau estimated 2013 bean crop at 847,160 tons vs. 843,150 tons

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 125K and 45K feed wheat optional origin for Sept /Nov shipment

 

Syria seeks 200K wheat flour

 

South Korea KFA seeks 60K optional origin corn  excluding China for Sept Nov shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 100K soft wheat and 75K feed barley optional origin for Aug/Oct shipment

 

UK Ag Min estimated ‘12/13 grain exports at 22.8 MMT vs. 21.8 MMT a year ago

 

Brazilian truckers are on strike. The strike started this morning at 6 am local time and will end Thursday at 6 am local time

 

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that 99% of the bean harvest was complete as of Friday the same as a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that 88% of the corn harvest is complete vs. 80% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that 54% or the wheat crop has been harvested vs. 47% a year ago

 

21 rice receipts canceled Friday afternoon

 

July meal made new contract highs overnight of 499.00 vs. Friday’s high of 491.50

 

Favorable Midwest weather

 

Deliveries

  • 0 corn, meal, beans , and Minneapolis wheat
  • Bean oil 170 with the date moving to 6/14/13
  • Wheat 2 with the date moving to 12/26/12

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1255 ½
  • SX 100 day 1256 ½

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of 6/25/13 Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 50,623
  • KC wheat short 17,171
  • Corn short 2,845
  • Beans long 81,554
  • Meal long 43,743
  • Bean oil short 52,801

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CN 22,591 open, down 13,074
  • CZ 522,490 open, up 43
  • Total corn 1,093,487 open, down 15,631
  • SN 10,170 open, down 4,790
  • SX 349,142 open, down 9,388
  • Total beans 531,798 open, down 10,453
  • SMN 11,076 open, down 4,581
  • SMZ 158,538 open, down 749
  • Total meal 301,002 open, down 5,332
  • BON 7,517 open, down 2,284
  • BOZ 161,346 open, up 1,400
  • Total oil 338,475 open, down 1,847
  • WN 4,838 open, down 1,854
  • WU 188,854 open, up 2,858
  • Total wheat 387,377 open, up 409

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress comes out on today at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • Good to excellent conditions to increase by 2-3% today for corn and beans.
    • Good to excellent conditions to increase by 1-2% for spring wheat
    • Bean planting should be almost complete. 92% was planted a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • See attachment for 4th of July holiday trading schedule- weekly DOE and Nat Gas storage report comes out on Wednesday at 930 and weekly US jobless claims and US export sales report comes out Friday at 730 am CDT
  • ECB meets on Thursday ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • US June unemployment report comes out Friday July 5th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg