News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Bad taste is simply saying the truth before it should be said.

Mel Brooks

 

Today is month end and end of the quarter .

 

USDA quarterly stocks and acreage report comes out today at 11 am CDT.

 

Estimates for the report. – I will email the report out as quickly as possible.

 

Estimate for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .750 BB, range of estimates are .732-.781 BB. June 1st 2012 wheat stocks were .743 BB and March 1st2013 wheat stocks were 1.234 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.856 BB, range of estimates are 2.761-3.000 BB . June 1st 2012 corn stocks were 3.148 BB and March 1st2013 corn stocks were 5.399 BB.
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .441 BB, range of estimates are .413-.490 BB . June 1st 2012 bean stocks were .667 BB and March 1st2013 bean stocks were .999 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US Acreage

  • Corn (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 95.340 MA, range of estimates are 94.2-96.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 97.282 MA and 2012 US final corn acreage was 97.155 MA
  • Beans (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 78.024 MA , range of estimates are 77.1-79.24 MA. USDA March estimate was 77.126 MA and 2012 US final bean acreage was 77.198 MA
  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.751 MA, range of estimates are 55.2-56.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 56.44 MA and 2012 US final all wheat acreage was 55.736 MA
  • Spring wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.117 MA, range of estimates are 11.7-12.7 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.701 MA and 2012 US final spring wheat acreage was 12.289 MA
  • Durum (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.657 MA, range of estimates are 1.55-1.80 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.751 MA and 2012 US final durum acreage was 2.123 MA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up ¾ at 1276
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 535 ¾
  • WU up 2 ¾ 676 ½
  • SMZ up .20 at 387.40
  • BOZ down 4 at 4515
  • RRU down 5 at 1551.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 6,980
  • CZ 8,134
  • WU 7,053
  • SMZ 3,590
  • BOZ 6,282
  • RRU 78

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal steady to 1.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver lower. Crude higher

 

Nikkei up 3.510%

Hang Seng up 1.777%

Shanghai Index up 1.499%

 

Palm down 11. China grain markets higher except meal was lower.

 

Analysts expect Malaysia’s June palm oil ending stocks to fall to 1.75 MMT. 6th consecutive decline In May Malaysia’s palm oil ending stocks were 1.816 MMT

 

South Korea CJ Cheiljedang seeks 15K milling wheat from Australia for October shipment

 

South Korea Daehan Flour Mills bought 30K Canadian milling wheat for Sept shipment

 

Indonesia bought 200K Russian milling wheat this week for August shipment
Thailand bought 45K US wheat this week for Aug/Sept shipment

 

Analysts expect Thailand and the Philippines to buy 2.0 MMT of Black Sea origin feed wheat in ‘13/14

 

Iraq canceled tender for 50K wheat- Iraq issues new tender for 50K wheat

 

SMN made new contract highs overnight. High overnight is 481.10. Yesterday’s high was 480.10

 

APK estimated Ukraine ‘13/14 wheat exports at 9.2 MMT up 37% from a year ago vs. USDA wheat export estimate of 8.0 MMT

 

APK estimated Ukraine ‘13/14 wheat crop at 20.5 MMT vs. 15.7 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated Egypt’s wheat imports in 2013 at 8 MMT down 10% from a year ago

 

Favorable Midwest weather

 

India’s Rice Exporters Association estimated India’s ‘13/14 rice exports at 9.5 MMT down 6% from a year ago

 

Most of Kansas and Oklahoma winter wheat harvest is almost complete – Better than expected yields being seen in Kansas

 

On Monday KC wheat will trade at the CBOT

 

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 542 ¾

 

200 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Deliveries

  • Corn 0 as expected
  • Beans 0 as expected
  • Meal 0 as expected
  • Wheat 2 with the date at 11/27/12 expecting 0-100 – ABN issued at Rosenthal stopped
  • KC wheat 0 expecting 0-500
  • Minneapolis wheat 0 as expected
  • Rice 378 with the date at 6/11/12
  • Bean oil 9 with the date at 2/28/13 expecting 500-1,500

 

Argentine government halted wheat exports due to rising domestic flour prices. Argentina’s government order grain exporters to sell 370K tons of wheat to local millers .  Argentina may have to import wheat before harvest in November. Brazil , Argentina’s biggest wheat buyer, may have to import wheat from other countries. Argentina’s ‘12/13 wheat crop was 9.0 MMT vs. 14.5 MMT in ‘11/12 . 6.2 MMT of wheat went to domestic use and 3.5 MMT of wheat was set aside for export

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly report from yesterday

  • Argentine corn harvest is 76.9% complete vs. 71.8% a week ago
  • Estimated Argentine corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous
  • Said they may raise their corn crop estimate due to better than expected yields being noted
  • Argentine wheat planting 52.8% complete vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 46.8% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentine wheat area at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine barley planting is 26.2% complete vs. 28% a year ago

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 35,947 open, down 27,824
  • CZ 523,444 open, down 2,045
  • Total corn 1,110,406 open, down 22,143
  • SN 14,973 open , down 16,007
  • SX 358,678 open, down 2,145
  • Total beans 542,165 open, down 11,496
  • SMN 15,667 open, down 9,608
  • SMZ 159,465 open, up 692
  • Total meal 306,580 open, down 3,785
  • BON 9,801 open, down 7,788
  • BOZ 159,965 open, up 1,605
  • Total bean oil 340,368 open, up 2,201
  • WN 6,695 open, down 10,415
  • WU 186,229 open, up 6,969
  • Total wheat 387,259 open, down 4,184+

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • China’s PMI comes out on Monday
  • Intertek and SGS estimate Malaysia’s June palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • See attachment for 4th of July holiday trading schedule- weekly DOE and Nat Gas storage report comes out on Wednesday at 930 and weekly US jobless claims and US export sales report comes out Friday at 730 am CDT
  • US June unemployment report comes out Friday July 5th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg