News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Loss is nothing else but change, and change is Nature’s delight.”

— Marcus Aurelius

 

Goldman Sachs Roll begins today. GS roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling long July positions forward.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 11 ¼ at 1538 ½
  • SX up 21 ¾ at 1327 ½
  • CN up 1 at 664 ¼
  • CZ up 7 ¾ at 556
  • WN up 4 ¼ at 702
  • SMN up 4.00 at 458
  • BON up 26 at 4842
  • RRN up 8 at 1593.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,372
  • SX 14,242
  • CN 5,931
  • CZ 10,242
  • WN 3,129
  • SMN 4,137
  • BON 9,748
  • RRN 94

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-12 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 7-9 higher

 

Dollar and stock market  higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

May US unemployment report came out this morning

  • May non-farm payrolls +175K expecting +169K
  • May unemployment rate 7.6% expecting 7.5%
  • April non-farm payrolls revised to +149K from +165K

 

Lack of news this morning

 

Palm oil up 22. Chinese grain markets slightly lower beans and corn and higher meal and oils

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.6 MMT and estimated June imports at 7.0-7.5 MMT

 

60K tons of Argentine GM corn is on the way to China. Argentine farmers hoping corn will pass customs. Argentine farmers expecting to export more corn to China in ‘13/14

 

Russia exported 619,300 wheat between Jan – April – Customs data

 

India’s June 1st wheat stocks at 44.4 MMT vs. 42.7 MMT on May 1st

 

India’s June 1st rice stocks at 33.3 MMT vs. 34.7 MMT a month ago

 

Mississippi river reopens 5 mile stretch near St Louis . River had been closed for 4 days due to high water.

 

South Germany’s river Rhine may be reopened tonight or tomorrow.

 

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends Monday.

 

39 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Rains in Midwest late Saturday through Tuesday 90% coverage amounts .25-1.25 inches

 

6-10 and 11-15 day wetter in northern areas

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Argentina’ weekly crop report from yesterday

  • 98% of the bean crop is harvested vs. 96.1% a week ago and vs. 95% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘12/13 bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous
  • 61% of the corn crop is harvested vs. 54.7% a week ago and vs. 64.8% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘12/13 corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous
  • 19.4% of the wheat crop is planted vs. 9% a week ago and 11.1% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 wheat area at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 672 ¼
  • CZ 100 day 554 ½
  • WN 50 day 702 ¾
  • WZ 50 day 725 ¾

 

Open interest from yesterday’s close

  • CN 368,052 open, down 2,725
  • CZ 464,773 open, up 4,868
  • Total corn 1,190,621 open, up 6,731
  • SN  240,736 open, down 10,245
  • SX 255,726 open, up 12,469
  • Total beans 606,954 open, up 4,126
  • SMN 127,699 open, down 2,796
  • Total meal 295,451 open, up 1,718
  • BON 151,509 open, down 4,741
  • Total bean oil 368,109 open, down 133
  • WN 173,818 open, down 7,943
  • Total wheat 425,506 open, up 674

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • China’s customs data comes out tomorrow with May import figures.
  • China’s May CPI comes out on Sunday. BOC expecting +2.5% vs. +2.4% in April
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out with their May data report on Monday, June 10. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts , estimates for the report are
    • May palm oil production average estimate 1.39 MMT vs. April production of 1.37 MMT
    • May palm oil stocks average estimate 1.78 MMT vs. April stocks of 1.93 MMT
    • May palm oil exports average estimate 1.41 MMT vs. 1.45 MMT in April.
  • Surveyors will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports on Monday, June 10
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand  report come out on June 12th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg