News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Stupidity combined with arrogance and a huge ego will get you a long way.”

– Chris Lowe

 

Deutsche Bank roll begins today. They will be rolling wheat only, Long July 2013 positions into July 2014. Roll lasts 5 days. Hearing they will roll 4,000 -4,500 contracts per day.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 11 ½ at 1521
  • SX down 19 ¾ at 1305 ¾
  • CN down 6 ¼ at 649 ½
  • CZ down 11 ½ at 548 ½
  • WN down 8 at 700 ¾
  • SMN down 4.10 at 450.30
  • BON down 30 at 4836
  • RRN down 1 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,999
  • SX 15,864
  • CN 7,360
  • CZ 11,081
  • WN 5,212
  • SMN 3,435
  • BON 6,591
  • RRN 47

 

Opening Calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 8-10 lower
  • Wheat 7-9 lower
  • Meal 4-5 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce monetary stimulus

 

Nikkei up 2.051%

Hang Seng up .015%

Shanghai Index down 1.152%

 

Palm oil down 21. Chinese grain markets lower except for beans were slightly higher.

 

Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan.

 

Not a lot of news this morning. Technical selling after prices failed to challenge overhead resistance for the third time on July corn .

 

China’s COFCO bought 60K tons of Argentine corn for July shipment . This is China’s first Argentine corn purchase since China and Argentina signed import deal in February 2012

 

China’s Ag Min said summer grain crop area at 27.67 MH up 700K from a year ago

 

China’s Ag Min said summer grain yield to hit record high

 

South Korea Kocopia bought 50K South African corn for September shipment

 

Japan seeks 163,605 tons of milling wheat for July – Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 35,335 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,805 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 49,000 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 53,465 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan has temporarily suspended western white US wheat due to unapproved GM wheat being found in Oregon last week

 

Indonesia Flour Mill Association said they have not heard of any flour mills canceling US wheat

 

Algeria seeks 50K tons of optional origin milling wheat for August/Sept shipment

 

Clarivi estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 76.0 MMT up 2.0 MMT from previous estimate

 

Brazil’s Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 1.52 MMT of meal in May vs. 1.50 in April and vs. 1.35 MMT in May 2012

 

Brazil’s Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 200K tons of bean oil in May vs. 92K tons in April and vs. 285K tons in May 2012

 

Soybean Processors Association of India said India exported 97K tons of meal in May vs. 139K tons a year ago

 

Soybean Processors Association of India said India exported 198K tons of meal in April-May vs. 475K tons a year ago

 

India’s Farm Ministry exports 2013 food grain output to be above 2012 estimate of 255.36 MMT due to Monsoon rains arriving as expected. In 2011 India produced a record crop of 259.32 MMT

 

IGC estimated China’s 2013 rice imports at 2.3 MMT up 4.5% from previous estimate

 

IGC estimated China’s 2013 domestic rice consumption at 143.1 MMT vs. 139.5 MMT a year ago

 

IGC estimated China’s 2013 rice production at 142.5 MMT

 

Russia sold 30,645 tons of intervention grain today making the total since the program started on Oct 23, 2012 at 3,387,941 tons

 

28 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

88 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

US Coast Guard closed Port of St Louis yesterday.

 

German State Agency said River Rhine in south Germany to be closed to shipping until at least Thursday due to high water

 

Some rains in forecast for the Midwest through Saturday – Rains not as widespread as originally forecasted

 

Moving averages

  • CN 50 day 646 ¼
  • CZ 50 day 542 ¼
  • CZ 100 day 555 ½
  • WN 50 day 704 ½
  • WZ 50 day at 727 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 396,463 open, down 6,986
  • CZ 442,626 open, down 3,882
  • Total corn 1,184,682 open, down 8,278
  • SN 263,132 open, down 3,058
  • SX 232,563 open, up 4,919
  • Total beans 599,304 open, up 4,608
  • SMN 133,700 open, down 3,380
  • Total meal 284,829 open, up 1,368
  • BON 167,648 open, down 7,027
  • Total bean oil 373,287 open, down 3,189
  • WN 198,221 open, up 763
  • Total wheat 428,081 open, up 8,297

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday- US corn and bean planting progress slowest in 17 years

 

Corn

  • Planting 91% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 95% 5 year average (market was expecting 89-94% complete)
    • IA 88% complete vs. 85% a week ago and vs. average of 99%
    • IL 91% complete vs. 89% a week ago and vs. average of 95%
    • OH 98% complete vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 95% average
    • MN 87% complete vs. 98% average
    • ND 84% complete vs. 93% average
    • WI 74% complete vs. 94% average
  • Emerged 74% vs. 54% a week ago and vs. 82% 5 year average
  • Condition 63% good to excellent vs. 72% good to excellent a year ago (market was expecting 60-65% good to excellent)

 

Beans

  • Planting 57% vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 74% 5 year average (market was expecting 45-55% complete, a few analysts were expecting as high as 65% complete)
    • MS 74% complete up 28% from a week ago
    • OH 89% complete up 19% from a week ago
    • ND 51% complete up 18% from a week ago
    • IA 44% complete vs. 91% average
    • IL 49% complete vs. average of 69%
  • Emerged 31% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 49% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Planting 80% vs. 79% a week ago and vs. 92% 5 year average (market was expecting 85-90% complete)
  • Emerged 61% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 80% 5 year average
  • Condition 64% good to excellent vs. 78% a year ago

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 32% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 52% a year ago
  • Condition 43% poor to very poor  up 1% from a week ago and vs. 18% a year ago
    • Kansas good to excellent 28% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 40% a year ago
    • Kansas poor to very poor 45% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 24% a year ago
    • Oklahoma good to excellent 18% up 1% from a week ago and vs. 72% a year ago
    • Oklahoma poor to very poor 54% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 7% a year ago
    • Texas good to excellent 7% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 26% a year ago
    • Texas poor to very poor 79% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 42% a year ago
  • Headed 73% vs. 60% a week ago vs. 80% five year average

 

Rice

  • Planted 97% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Emerged 88% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 87% 5 year average
  • Condition 61% good to excellent vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 65% a year ago

 

Cotton

  • Planting 82% vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 83% 5 year average
  • Squaring 4% vs. 11% a year ago and vs. 7% 5 year average

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • ECB meets on Thursday
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday. Their previous estimates were
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop at 81.5 MMT
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian bean exports at 36.78 MMT
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian total corn crop at 78.0 MMT
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian wheat crop at 5.4 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian wheat exports at 6.8 MMT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday, June 7th . Lasts for 5 days
  • May US unemployment comes out Friday June 7th
  • China’s May CPI comes out on June 9th. BOC expecting +2.5% vs. +2.4% in April
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out with their May data report on June 10th
  • Surveyors will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports on June 10
  • USDA report on June 12th

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg