News From The Grain Floor

Freedom of the press is limited to those who own one.

A. J. Liebling

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 2 at 1462 ½
  • SX down 7 ½ at 1217 ½
  • CN down 13 ¼ at 636 ¼
  • CZ down 8 at 512 ¼ – June 15th low is 511
  • WN down 9 ¾ at 674 ½
  • SMN down .50 at 434.80
  • BON down 15 at 4905
  • RRN up 5.50 at 1523

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 15,239
  • SX 7,806
  • CN 13,778
  • CZ 19,090
  • WN 4,818
  • SMN 5,490
  • BON 5,871
  • RRN 195

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 8-10 lower
  • Wheat 8-10 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .132%

Hang Seng down .539%

Shanghai Index up .223%

 

Palm oil unchanged . Chinese grain markets mixed , unchanged beans, lower corn and oils, higher meal

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans off the Gulf yesterday for Sept/Oct shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1cargo of Brazilian beans yesterday for July shipment

 

Informa’s Senior Vice President forecasted ‘13/14 corn futures price at $4-$5

 

Macquarie forecasted 2014 average corn price at $4.75

 

Grain.gov said China’s 2012 corn crop at 205.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 208.1 MMT

 

Japan seeks 122,222 tons of milling wheat for June/August shipment Breakdown

  • 25,261 tons of western white US wheat
  • 26,240 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 22,396 tons of DNS US wheat
  • 22,370 tons of WRS Canadian wheat
  • 31,955 tons of Australian wheat

 

Jordan seeks 150K wheat and 100K feed barley optional origin

 

Israel seeks 80K corn, 60K feed wheat, and 20K barley for June Sept shipment North America, South America, Europe, or Black Sea origin

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K sunflower oil

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 20-24K sunflower oil for June shipment

 

Iraq seeks 30K optional origin , excluding China and the Ukraine, sunflower oil

 

India MMTC canceled export tender for 100K wheat due to lack of bids

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn exports at 18.5 MMT up 8% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn crop at 25.7 MMT (record)

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 11.0 MMT up 22% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013 wheat planting area at 3.5 MH

 

FAO estimated Brazil’s 2013 corn exports at 23.0 MMT down 10% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated Brazil’s 2013 corn crop at 77.81 MMT (record)
FAO estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT up 25% from a year ago

 

Paraguay’s exporters chamber estimated their ‘12/13 bean crop at a record 9.0MMT vs. government estimate of 8.4 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Ministry said Russia exported 14.788 MMT of grain between 7/1/12-5/15/12 down 41% from a year ago
Russia’s Ag Ministry said Russia exported 211,000 tons of grain between May 1 – May 15th

 

Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated ‘12/13 grain exports at 15.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10-12 MMT , they said they may reduce their estimate to 14.8 MMT

 

Russia’s Grain Union estimated 2013 grain crop at 90-100 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90-95 MMT

 

Russia’s Grain Union estimated ‘13/14 exportable surplus at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.0 MMT

 

Russia sold 39,1496 tons of intervention grain , making the total since 10/23/13 at 3,228,186 tons

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 344.10

 

Rain in the forecast for the Midwest

 

22 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Article from Financial Times 

  • Rabobank said Argentina farmers are slowly starting to sell beans.
  • Argentina farmers had sold less than 33% of their crop by the end of April vs. 53% sold a year ago and vs. 45% average
  • Agritend said sales are starting to pick up in Argentina to 1.8-2.0 MMT per month and they expect them to increase further to 3.5-4.0 MMT per month
  • Many farmers still are reluctant to sell

 

China’s April imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 203,337 tons down 30.69% from a year ago
  • Corn 419,505 tons up 2454% from a year ago
  • Barley 197,803 tons down 48.97% from a year ago
  • Rice 301,078 tons up .68% from a year ago
  • Beans 3.977 MMT down 18.59% from year ago
  • Rapeseed 364,366 tons up 26.85% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 187,514 tons up 171% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 1,810 tons down 97.3% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 30,137 tons down 61.27% from a year ago
  • Soymeal  1,194 tons up 311% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 588,981 tons up 28.38% from a year ago

 

China’s January – April imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 894,556 tons down 36.75% from a year ago
  • Corn 1.45 MMT down 17.76% from a year ago
  • Barley 556,376 tons down 48.3% from a year ago
  • Rice 993,313 tons up 84.54% from a year ago
  • Beans 15.47 MMT down 14.77% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 1.18 MMT up 11.05% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 574,703 tons up 93.09% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 4,839 tons down 97.33% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 220,014 tons down 43.55% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 8,540 tons down 75.49% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 2.077 MMT up 11.06% from a year ago

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted 71% vs. 28% a week ago and vs. 79% 5 year average (market was expecting 55-75% complete, the majority of the market was looking for 60-65% complete)- 43% is a one week record for the US
    • IL at 74% up 57% from a week ago
    • IA at 71% up 56% from a week ago
    • MI at 78% up 56% from a week ago
    • MN at 70% up 52% from a week ago
    • ND at 61% up 43% from a week ago
    • MO at 70% up 42% from a week ago
    • NE at 84% up 41% from a week ago
    • IN at 64% up 34% from a week ago
  • Emerged 19% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 46% 5 year average

 

Beans

  • Planted 24% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 42% 5 year average (market was expecting 25-35% complete)
    • IL 19% vs. 0% a week ago vs. 75% a year ago and vs. 35% average
    • IA 16% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 59% average
    • OH 45% vs. 16% a week ago vs. 70% a year ago and vs. 33% average
    • IN 30% vs. 6% a week ago vs. 84% a year ago and vs. 36% average
  • Emerged 3% vs. 32% a year ago and vs. 14% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Planted 67% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 76% 5 year average
  • Emerged 22% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 49% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 31% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 58% a year ago
  • Condition 41% poor to very poor up 2% from a week ago vs. 14% a year ago
    • KS good to excellent 28% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
    • KS poor to very poor 42% up 1% from a week ago and vs. 22% a year ago
    • OK good to excellent 19% down 2% from a week ago and vs. 75% a year ago
    • OK poor to very poor 52% up 5% from a week ago and vs. 6% a year ago
    • TX good to excellent 6% down 3% from a week ago and vs. 34% a year ago
    • TX poor to very poor 76% up 3% from a week ago and vs. 32% a year ago
  • Headed 43% vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 62% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 54% good to excellent vs. 66% a year ago
  • Emerged 60% vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 67% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 39% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 52% 5 year average

 

Oats planted is 86% complete vs. 70% a week ago vs. 99% a year ago and vs. 91% average

 

Sorghum planting 35% vs. 29% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 42% average

 

Barley planting 70% complete vs. 55% a week ago vs. 97% a year ago and vs. 77% average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 437,230 open, up 4
  • Total corn 1,170,665 open, up 9,174
  • SN 295,150 open, down 2,097
  • Total beans 580,233 open, down 563
  • SMN 139,220 open, down 450
  • Total meal 265,840 open, down 410
  • BON 183,813 open, up 4,361
  • Total bean oil 358,339 open, up 7,469
  • WN 221,738 open, up 3,210
  • Total wheat 413,888 open, up 6,561

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 800K
    • Gas a draw of 550K
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • EU summit in Brussels on Wednesday
  • FOMC to read minutes from April 30th – May 1st meeting on Wednesday
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out on Thursday
  • ECB president speaks on “Future of Europe” in London on Thursday
  • June options expire Friday
  • See attachment for Memorial Day trading hours schedule
  • Rogers roll begins May 30th. Lasts for 3 days
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st
  • CME to launch palm oil swaps contract on June 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins June 7th . Lasts for 5 days

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg