News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

“Don’t cry about it. Deal with it.”

Robert Benmosche, CEO, AIG in a scheduled commencement address May 18 to students at New York State’s Alfred University

 

USDA announced 171K new crop US beans to China

 

NOPA April crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT . I will email the numbers when they come out. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Crush average estimate 125.5 MB , range of estimates are 121.0-129.0 . In March the crush was 137.080 MB and in April 2012 the crush was 131.708 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 2.653 B pounds, range of estimates are 2.558-2.745. In March the bean oil stocks were 2.765 B and in April 2012 the bean oil stocks were 2.385 B
  • No estimates are given for meal exports , but in March meal exports were 638,327 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 7 at 1407 ¾
  • CN down 5 at 647 ½
  • WN down 5 ½ at 705 ¼
  • SMN down 3.30 at 408.50
  • BON down 16 at 4960
  • RRN down 7 at 1529.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,860
  • CN 4,812
  • WN 3,062
  • SMN 5,416
  • BON 8,368
  • RRN 37

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • Meal 3-4 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 5-10 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower. Dollar higher.

 

Nikkei up 2.288%

Hang Seng up .497%

Shanghai Index up .355%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude build of 200K expecting a build of 300K
  • Gas draw of 900K expecting a draw of 800K
  • Distillates build of 1.8 MB expecting a build of 700K

 

US April PPI came out this morning at -.7% expecting -.6%

 

First quarter GDP

  • Eurozone – .2% expecting -.1%
  • German +.1% expecting +.3%
  • France -.2% expecting -.1%
  • Italy -.5% expecting -.3%

 

Palm oil down 6. China grain markets lower except for corn was unchanged. Palm and bean oil sharply lower. Due to large bean oil stocks.

 

Malaysia to keep June palm oil export tax unchanged from May at 4.5%

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-15th palm oil exports at 611,217 tons down 3% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s May 1-15th palm oil exports at 599,300 tons down 7.6% from a month ago

 

RUMOR from yesterday – Meal imports coming into the US (4 cargoes) , but hearing it does not pencil in economically

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at a record high of 66.0 MMT up 11.9% from ‘12/13 and vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC said they do not expect major impact from bird flu. H7N9 has killed 35 people in China.

 

CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 China meal demand at 52.4 MMT up 7.1% from a year ago

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean oil imports at 1.1 MMT , estimated rapeseed imports at 3.0 MMT and estimated rapeseed oil imports at 1.3 MMT

 

Taiwan bought 1 cargo of South African corn for immediate shipment

 

Japan bought 150K South African corn for immediate shipment

 

South Korea flour mills bought 70K Australian wheat for July-Aug shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 60K South American corn for September shipment

 

Indonesia bought 45K Canadian spring wheat for July-Aug shipment

 

Talk Indonesia still needs to cover 250K tons of wheat for Aug shipment

 

Thailand bought 50K Argentine meal for Aug/Sept shipment

 

Vietnam seeks Australian wheat for July shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade planning to hold tender for 20K optional origin sunflower oil for June shipment .

 

Jordan canceled tender for 150K milling wheat due to high prices

 

South Korea bought 25,053 tons of optional origin rice for Aug/Oct shipment

 

Brazil dockworkers walked off the job yesterday at 1 pm local time to protest last minute changes to legislation aimed at modernizing Brazil port system

 

Analysts said dry weather may cut crop forecasts in Russia and the Ukraine.

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013  grain crop at 83-89 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

SovEcon estimated May and June Russia grain exports at 500K tons per month vs. 480K tons in April
SovEcon estimated ‘12/13 Russia’s grain exports at 16.0 MMT vs. Ag Min estimate of 14.8 MMT

 

University of Illinois agronomist  said slowest US corn plantings on record should trim US corn yield. He said corn planted in IL after May 10th could lose 6% yield , after May 20th 12% loss and after May 31st 20% loss

 

Dry Midwest weather with scattered showers the next 3 days . Above normal temps in forecast for Saturday and Sunday

 

Needed rains in forecast for Australia , Russia , and Ukraine

 

Hearing US corn plantings on Monday could reach 55-60% complete vs. 28% on May 13th

 

Hearing US bean planting Monday could reach 30-35% complete vs. 6% on May 13th

 

UK customs data showed March wheat exports at 32,947 tons down 78% from a year ago

 

UK customs data showed March wheat imports at 251,176 tons . July 1- March 31st imports at 2.12 MMT vs. 664K a year ago

 

BAS estimated Philippines 2nd quarter paddy rice output at 3.71 MMT vs. 3.9 MMT a year ago and estimated 3rd quarter output at 3.60 MMT vs. 3.59 MMT a year ago

 

BAS estimated Philippines 2nd quarter corn output at 1.08 MMT vs. 1.45 MMT a year ago  and estimated 3rd quarter output at 2.44 MMT vs. 2.43 MMT a year ago

 

Thai Rice Exporters Association estimated Thailand’s 2013 rice exports at 6.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5 MMT

 

9 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon by the Andersons

 

144 new corn receipts registered yesterday afternoon

  • 77 ADM
  • 1 Cargill
  • 66 CGB

 

28 new bean receipts registered yesterday afternoon

  • 17 ADM Lacon IL
  • 11 ADM Cr. Coeur

 

25 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

25 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 103 with the date current
    • Bunge house stopped 30
    • ADM house stopped 64
    • Term house issued 39
    • JP Morgan customer issued 62
  • Rice 22 with the date current
  • Corn 144 with the date at 5/13/13
    • Term house stopped 144
    • ADM house issued 77
    • ABN issued 66
  • Beans 28 with the date current
    • ADM house issued 28
    • ABN customer stopped 28
  • Wheat 47 with the date current
  • No meal

 

Moving averages

  • SN 100 day 1405
  • SN 200 day 1431 ¾
  • CN 50 day 657
  • WN 50 day 709 ½
  • WZ 50 day 730 ¾
  • BON 50 day 4967
  • BOZ 50 day 4895
  • SMN 50 day 406.90
  • SMN 100 day 409.70
  • SMN 200 day 415.80
  • SMZ 50 day 345.20

 

Open Interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 441,156 open, down 7,136
  • Total corn 1,145,509 open, down 3,707
  • SN 296,816 open, up 1,609
  • Total beans 564,981 open, up 8,616
  • SMN 137,749 open, up 219
  • Total meal 257,012 open, up 985
  • BON 180,810 open, down 1,462
  • Total bean oil 342,728 open, down 1,822
  • WN 218,843 open, down 331
  • Total wheat 405,440 open, up 2,563

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 450K
    • Gas a draw of 1.1 MB
    • Distillates at build of 475K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • US CPI tomorrow at 730 am
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg