News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

USDA Supply and Demand and US Wheat and World Production report comes out today at 11 am CDT. See below for estimates. I will email figures from the report when it comes out.

 

God grant me the courage not to give up what I think is right, even though I think it is hopeless.

– Chester W. Nimitz

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 1 at 1409 ¾
  • CN down 3 ¾ at 645
  • WN down 4 at 719 ½
  • SMN up .50 at 413.70
  • BON down 14 at 4908
  • RRN up 3 at 1537

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 12,982
  • CN 7,224
  • WN 4,776
  • SMN 4,402
  • BON 7,409
  • RRN 11

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 1-3 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice  2-4 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 2.932%

Hang Seng up .473%

Shanghai Index up .625%

Most world stock markets higher

 

Bernanke speaks today in Chicago at 830 am CDT at the Fed’s banking conference

 

Palm oil up 23. Chinese grain markets higher.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board April Data Report came out this morning

  • Palm oil stocks at 1.93 MMT (lowest since June 2012)  vs. average estimate of 2.04 MMT and vs. 2.17 MMT in March
  • Palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.40 MMT and vs. 1.54 M in March
  • Palm oil output at 1.37 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.39 MMT and vs. 1.33 M in March

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-10th palm oil exports at 377,193 tons down 18% from a month ago. Market expecting 379K

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s May 1-10th palm oil exports at 380,047 tons down 17% from a month ago

 

China Cereals and Oils Business Net said China palm oil stocks at ports at 1.5 MMT (record)  vs. 1.46 MMT a month ago

 

South Korea CJ bought 70K optional origin corn for September shipment

 

South Korea feed millers have bought about 400K tons of corn and wheat over the past 3 days

 

Algeria bought 175K optional origin durum wheat for July shipment

 

Algeria bought 150K optional origin milling wheat for July shipment

 

Brazil government approves the purchase of 3 MMT of local corn for stocks.

 

Emerald Group (one of Australia’s largest wheat exporters) estimate Australia’s 2013 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.6 MMT due to dry weather.

 

Emerald Group said may start to see reduction in Australia’s wheat acreage if no good rains by June

 

FAO said Mexico’s ‘12/13 winter corn crop will fall 13% due to drought

 

US weather – took some more rain out of forecast for US corn and bean areas for Saturday – Tuesday. 6-10 day wetter in northwest and 11-15 wetter in northern areas

 

Cold wet weather delaying planting in northeast China

 

JC Intelligence said Chinese farmers may switch from corn to bean acreage.

 

MDA said dry weather in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan threatening winter grain crops

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Report from yesterday

  • Argentina’s bean harvest 79.3% complete vs. 66.2% a week ago and vs. 73.4% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentina’s corn harvest 40.5% complete vs. 38.5% a week ago and vs. 49.2% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentina’s corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sorghum harvest 45% complete vs. 33% a week ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine wheat area at 3.9 MH up 8.3% from a year ago down 7% from 5 year average and down 20% from 10 year average

 

125 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon by the Andersons

 

31 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon by Cargill Ackley IA

 

1 rice receipt canceled

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 10 with the date at 5/02
    • Term house stopped 1
    • ADM house stopped 8
  • Rice 15 with the date current
  • Wheat 72 with the date at 5/08
    • ABN customer stopped 50
  • No beans, corn , and meal

 

Moving averages

  • SN 100 day moving at 1405 ¾
  • SN 200 day 1431 ½
  • BON 50 day 4971
  • SMN 100 day 410.10
  • SMN 200 day 415.50
  • SMZ 50 day 346.30

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 448,157 open, down 5,244
  • Total corn 1,143,530 open, down 1,229
  • SN 291,645 open, up 4,303
  • Total beans 548,358 open, up 6,830
  • SMN 139,080 open, up 302
  • Total meal 256,139 open, up 576
  • BON 185,906 open, down 1,196
  • Total bean oil 343,384 open, up 421
  • WN 223,629 open, down 4,566
  • Total wheat 405,591 open, down 3,703
  • Yesterday FI bought 5,500 Short dated Sept corn 480 puts – Open interest went up 5,169 to 6,704.
  • Yesterday ADM house sold 4,000 July corn 640 calls – Open interest went down 1,393 to 9,725

 

Estimates For Today’s USDA report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT (Dow Jones).

 

Estimates for 2013 US Wheat production

  • All wheat (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.059 BB, range of estimates are 1.832-2.165 BB vs. 2012 output of 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.477 BB, range of estimates are 1.359 – 1.555 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.645 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .765 BB, range of estimates are .676-.834 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.004 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .496 BB, range of estimates are .473-.524 BB vs. 2012 output of .420 BB
  • White winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .204-.226 vs. 2012 output of .222 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US Grain and Soybean Carryout

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .754 BB, range of estimates are .684-.802 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .757 BB and vs. ‘11/12 carryout of .989 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .124 BB, range of estimates are .107-.130 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .125 BB and vs. ’11/12 carryout of .169 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .681-.747 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .731 BB and vs. ’11/12 carry out of .743 BB

 

Estimates for ’13/14 US Grain and Soybean Carryout (first estimates from the USDA on ’13/14 carryout)

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.973 BB and range of estimates are 1.387 – 2.427 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .239 BB and range of estimates are .147 – .347 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .627 BB and range of estimates are .486 – .726 BB

 

Estimates for ’12/13 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 181.5 MMT, range of estimates are 178.3-183.2 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 182.260 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 199.4 MMT
  • Corn (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.8 MMT, range of estimates are 123.8-132.1 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 125.290 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 131.9 MMT
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.3 MMT, range of estimates are 61.1-63.0 vs. USDA April estimate of 62.63 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 55.1 MMT

 

Estimates for ’13/14 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 186.4 MMT, range of estimates are 178.1-195.8 MMT
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.63 MMT, range of estimates are 135.4-165.6 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.5 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-83.0 MMT

 

Estimates for ’12/13 Argentina and Brazil Bean and Corn Crops

  • Argentine bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.9MMT, range of estimates are 48.5-53.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 51.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 40.1 MMT
  • Argentine corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.4 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0-26.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 26.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 21.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 82.0-83.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 83.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 66.5 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.2 MMT, range of estimates are 73.5-77.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 74.0 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 73.0 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US Cotton

  • Production (6 analysts surveyed) average estimate 15.5 M bales, range of estimates are 14.0-17.6 MB vs. April USDA estimate for ‘12/13 cotton production of 17.3 MB and vs. ’11/12 output of 15.6 MB
  • Exports (6 analysts surveyed) average estimated 12.0 MB , range of estimates are 11.3-13.7 MB vs. USDA April estimate for ‘12/13 cotton exports of 13.0 MB and vs. ‘11/12 exports of 11.7 MB
  • Ending stocks (6 analysts surveyed) average estimate 4.0 MB, range of estimates are 3.3-4.8 MB vs. April USDA estimate for ‘12/13 cotton ending stocks of 4.2 MB and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 3.4 MB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT reports comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th
  • May futures expire at noon CDT on May 14th
  • NOPA April crush report comes out May 15th at 11 am CDT
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg