News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“A little knowledge that acts is worth infinitely more than much knowledge that is idle”.

Kahlil Gibran

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¾ at 1376
  • CN up 1 ¼ at 637 ¾
  • WN up 4 ½ at 707 ¼
  • SMN up 2.50 at 403.70
  • BON up 24 at 4900
  • RRN down 7 at 1544

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,724
  • CN 8,373
  • WN 4,554
  • SMN 3,937
  • BON 6,723
  • RRN 64

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 15-30 higher
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Stock market higher. Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up 3.550%

Hang Seng up .576%

Shanghai Indx up .200%

 

German and France finance ministers met today

 

Palm oil up 9. Chinese grain markets lower beans and meal higher corn and oils

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimates

  • 2013 Indonesia palm oil production estimated at 28.0 MMT vs. 30.0 MMT previously and vs. 25.7 MMT in 2012
  • 1st quarter Indonesian palm oil output at 5.2 MMT vs. estimate of 5.5 MMT
  • Estimated 2013 Indonesian palm oil exports at 19.0 MMT vs. 18.2 MMT in 2012

 

South Korea Nofi bought 69K tons of optional origin corn (possibly South American origin)

 

Asian buyers actively seeing corn and wheat due to fears US weather will cause prices to raise.

 

India MMTC seeks 18K Malaysian or Indonesian palm oil for May shipment

 

Turkey tenders to sell 240K red milling wheat for May- June shipment

 

Japan Ag Min said no weekly food wheat tender for Japan this week

 

Russia Ag Min said as of 5/06 25% or 7.5 MH of the spring grain crop has been planted down 259,400 hectares from a year ago

 

CBH estimated western Australia ‘13/14 wheat crop at 8.08 MMT vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago

 

Iraq Trade Minister said Iraq will lose 25-30% of their 2013 wheat crop due to floods in the south

 

Iraq annual wheat consumption about 4.5 MMT

 

Iraq annual wheat imports about 3 MMT

 

Midwest dry and warm today, rain in forecast Wednesday and Thursday , 6-10 day is drier.

 

Needed rain in forecast for western Australia next 1-3 days .

 

Ukraine weather forecaster said Ukraine’s spring barley and wheat yields could fall 30% if no rain by 5/20/13

 

Southern Australia dry , rain is needed.

 

Concerns about warm and dry weather in Russia

 

113 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon by the Andersons.

 

89 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 219 with the date at 5/02
    • Bunge house stopped 57
    • Term house stopped 34
    • ADM house stopped 60
  • Ethanol 24 with the date current
  • Wheat 516 with the date current

Moving averages

  • CZ 50 day at 548 ½
  • WN 50 day at 709 ¾
  • WZ 50 day at 731

 

Weekly US Crop Progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted 12% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 47% 5 year average (expecting 13-20% complete) – Slowest start since 1986 – The weekly record for amount of corn planted is 32%
    • IL corn planting 7% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 88% a year ago and vs. 48% 5 year average
    • IN corn planting 8% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 82% a year ago and vs. 41% 5 year average
    • IA corn planting 8% vs. 2% a week ago vs. 62% a year ago and vs. 56% 5 year average
    • KA corn planting 17% vs. 7% a week ago vs. 72% a year ago and vs. 54% 5 year average
    • NE corn planting 14% vs. 3% a week ago vs. 70% a year ago and vs. 53% 5 year average
  • Emerged 3% vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 15% average

 

Beans

  • Planted 2% complete vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 12% 5 year average (expecting 1-4% complete) – tied for second slowest start with 1983 and 1993 – 1% record low made in 1984
    • IL 0% vs. 20% a year ago and vs. 8% 5 year average
    • IN 0% vs. 45% a year ago and vs. 16% 5 year average
    • IA 0% vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 10% 5 year average
    • NE 1% vs. 26% a year ago and vs. 13% 5 year average
    • OH 1% vs. 32% a year ago and vs. 15% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 32% good to excellent vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 12% a year ago
  • Condition 39% poor to very poor vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 63% a year ago
    • Texas 7% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Texas 74% poor to very poor up 6% from a week ago
    • Kansas 27% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Kansas 40% poor to very poor up 1% from a week ago
    • Oklahoma 20% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago
    • Oklahoma 45% poor to very poor up 4% from a week ago
  • Headed 20% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 39% 5 year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Planted 23% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 50% 5 year average
  • Emerged 5% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 19% average

 

Rice

  • Planted 55% vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 66% 5 year average
  • Emerged 36% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 47% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 17% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 27% 5 year average

 

Oats planted 57% vs. 47% a week ago vs. 93% a year ago and vs. 76% 5 year average

 

Barley planted 44% vs. 30% a week ago vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 49% 5 year average

 

Sorghum plating 28% complete vs. 27% a week ago  vs. 34% a year ago and vs. 31% 5 year average

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 458,073 open, down 1,107
  • Total corn 1,143,593 open, up 3,756
  • SN 285,124 open, down 5,224
  • Total beans 537,089 open, down 4,551
  • SMN 138,306 open, up 51
  • Total meal 255,616 open, up 736
  • BON 190,703 open, up 2,022
  • Total bean oil 344,181 open, up 2,982
  • WN 232,119 open, down 1,704
  • Total wheat 411,600 open, up 2,447

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • China’s April import data comes out tonight/tomorrow morning.
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa will come out tomorrow or Thursday with 2013 US acreage estimates. Informa comes out at 1030 am CDT. Previous acreage estimates were
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA
  • Public holiday in France Wednesday and Thursday
  • Chinese economic data comes out on Thursday.
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out on Thursday . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • G8 meets on Friday in the UK
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out with their April data report on Friday . Expecting
    • Palm oil stocks 2.07 MMT vs. 2.17 MMT in March
    • Palm oil exports 1.42 M vs. 1.54 M in March
    • Palm oil output 1.40 MMT vs. 1.33 M in March
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT .  I will have estimates for the report in my afternoon recap.
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th
  • May futures expire at noon CDT on May 14th
  • NOPA April crush report comes out May 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg