News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The suburbs are where they cut down all the trees and then name streets after them!

Alfred E. Neuman.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 21 ¼ at 1377 ¾
  • CN down 7 at 643
  • WN down 11 at 720
  • SMN down 6.60 at 407.90
  • BON down 45 at 4877
  • RRN down 4 at 1506.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 16,063
  • CN 10,840
  • WN 7,747
  • SMN 7,239
  • BON 8,580
  • RRN 102

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 18-22 lower
  • Corn 6-8 lower
  • Wheat 9-11 lower
  • Meal 5-7 lower
  • Bean oil 40-60 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar are all lower this morning.

 

Start of a new month

 

Nikkei down .444%

Hang Seng up .692%

 

Most of the world is on holiday today for May Day. China, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina, and most of European markets are closed. Trading resumes tomorrow

 

Lack of news this morning.

 

China’s April official mfg PMI at 50.6 (expecting 50.9-51.0) vs. 50.9 in March and vs. HSBC flash PMI of 50.5

 

UK April official mfg PMI at 49.8 expecting 49.0 and vs. 48.6 in March

 

2nd day of FOMC policy meeting

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 5.2 MB expecting a build of 2.9 MB
  • Gas a draw of 2.7 MB expecting a draw of 2.15 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB expecting a build of 55K

 

Analysts talking about China soon being loaded with soybeans due to big shipments from Brazil. Also expecting lower demand for beans and meal due to bird flu.

 

Indonesia’s May palm oil export tax at 9.0% vs. 10.5% in April

 

Malaysia’s May palm oil export tax unchanged from April at 4.5%

 

Today is the second day of the Wheat Quality Council wheat tour. Tour ends tomorrow. Final yield estimates from the tour comes out tomorrow afternoon. In 2012 Kansas wheat yield was 42.0 and the yield in 2011 was 35

 

First day of Kansas wheat tour in northern and central areas showed an average yield of 43.8 BPA vs. 53.4 BPA a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 44.2 BPA

 

Director of Colorado Wheat estimated 2013 Colorado wheat crop at 59.8 MB vs. 73.8 MB in 2012

 

Director of Colorado Wheat estimated 2013 Colorado wheat yield at 34.0 BPA unchanged from 2012 final yield

 

Director of Colorado Wheat expects farmers to abandon 20% of winter wheat planting vs. 10 year average of 11.4%
Director of Nebraska Wheat Growers Association estimated average winter wheat yield at 30.0 BPA vs. 2012 final of 41.0 BPA

 

Moody considers downgrading ADM following Grain Corp agreement (Reuters)

 

6-10 day US weather forecast drier in Delta and Midwest

 

Australia dry, rain is needed.

 

18 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 1,010 with the date moving to 4/29/13
    • Bunge stopped 12
    • Term stopped 332
  • Rice 241 with the date current
  • Wheat 460 with the date moving to 4/29/13
  • No corn, meal, beans, or Minneapolis wheat

 

Moving averages

  • CZ 50 day at 549
  • WN 50 day at 710 ¾
  • WZ 50 day at 731 ½
  • SMN 50 day at 410.30
  • SMN 100 day at 411.40
  • SMN 200 day at 415.20
  • SMZ 50 day at 348.00

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 466,535 open, down 8,151
  • Total corn 1,156,772 open, down 11,131
  • SN 265,053 open, up 911
  • Total beans 540,143 open, down 1,107
  • SMN 136,367 open, up 2,937
  • Total meal 256,206 open, up 1,549
  • BON 191,543 open, up 966
  • Total bean oil 338,667 open, up 767
  • WN 235,430 open, down 3,754
  • Total wheat 407,381 open, down 5,504

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.1 MB
    • Gas a draw of 900K
    • Distillates a build of 250K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • ECB meets tomorrow. Speculation ECB will cut rates by .25% to .5% (record low)
  • Weekly jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • US unemployment comes out Friday May 5th
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • Monday’s weekly US crop progress report expecting to see no more than 15% corn planting complete vs. 5 year average of 47%
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out May 9th . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on May 10th at 11 am CDT
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg