News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The easiest way for your children to learn about money is for you not to have any.

Katharine Whitehorn

 

I will send additional news shortly  . I apologize – Kate

 

Today is position day in May futures. Tomorrow is first notice day for May futures. Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries tonight are as follows

  • Wheat 0-500 (1,153 registered)
  • Corn 0 (0 registered)
  • Beans 0 (0 registered)
  • Meal 0 (0 registered)
  • Bean oil 0-3,000 (11,346 registered)

 

July meal is top step (spot month) today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 1 ¼ at 1382 ¼
  • CN up 11 ¾ at 631 ½
  • WN up 6 ¾ at 699 ¼
  • SMN up 1.60 at 406.30
  • BON down 37 at 4917
  • RRN up 4.50 at 1511.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 13,152
  • CN 15,131
  • WN 11,362
  • SMN 6,462
  • BON 9,505
  • RRN 232

 

Opening calls

  • Beans mixed
  • Corn 11-13 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-40 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market is higher. Dollar is lower.

 

Analysts say that 96% of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is in good condition

 

Average April wait time at Santos port (Brazil) was 8-43.5 days

 

Average April wait time at Paranagua port (Brazil) was 2-56.5 days

 

10 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon . All ADM – 2 – Des Moines IA, 7 Lincoln Nebraska, and 1 Quincy IL

 

Australia dry with light rains in forecast

 

Snow in forecast for parts of Midwest and northern Plains

 

Drier than normal weather in Russia and the Ukraine, helping with planting progress

 

Safras e Mercado estimates

  • ‘12/13 Brazil corn crop estimated at a record 78.4 MMT vs. ‘11/12 crop of 72.7 MMT
  • Said 94% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested

 

Deral estimates for Parana

  • As of 4/22 – 98% of the bean crop has been harvested vs. 93% a week ago
  • 57% of the bean crop has been sold vs. 56% on the 24th
  • As of 4/22 92% of the 1st corn crop has been harvested vs. 84% a week ago  43% of the 1st corn crop has been sold
  • 100% of the second corn crop has been planted
  • 93% of the second corn crop is in good condition
  • 5% of the 2nd corn crop has been sold
  • ‘13/14 wheat planting is 12% complete
  • 3% of the wheat crop has been sold.
  • CONAB’s last report estimated their bean crop at 37.33 MMT, estimated the 1st corn crop at 6.89 MMT, estimated the 2nd corn crop at 11.43 MMT, and estimated the ‘13/14 wheat crop at 1.82 MMT

 

Weekly supplemental COT report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of 4/23/13 . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 49,558
  • KC Wheat short 11,717
  • Corn short 48,169
  • Beans long 37,963
  • Meal long 10,037
  • Bean oil short 76,411

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CN 471,903 open, up 8,590
  • Total corn 1,222,092 open, down 14,127
  • SN 278,870 open, up 4,629
  • Total beans 549,869 open, down 6,673
  • July meal 131,582 open, down 1,193
  • Total meal 259,272 open, down 71
  • July bean oil 190,293 open , down 5,631
  • Total bean oil 345,510 open, down 7,019
  • July wheat 234,142 open, up 2,774
  • Total wheat 430,281 open, up 152

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT. Expecting 8-10% corn planting complete vs. 5 year average of 32%. Expecting to see bean planting progress for the first time this season, expecting about 2% complete vs. 5 year average of 5-6%
  • German, Japan, and Eurozone unemployment comes out tomorrow
  • Wheat Quality Council US winter wheat tour begins tomorrow. Tour is 3 days in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • First notice day for May futures is tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • European and Chinese economic data comes out on Thursday
  • ECB meets May 2nd . Speculation ECB will cut rates.
  • US unemployment comes out Friday May 5th
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out May 9th . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg