News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

Better is a little with righteousness than great income with injustice.
Proverbs 16:8

USDA announced 360K tons of US SRW wheat sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery . (there had been rumors last week of China buying up to 700K tons of US SRW wheat)

Overnight volume
· SK 13,456
· CK 12,892
· WK 7,716
· SMK 6,357
· BOK 7,999
· RRK 109

Opening calls
· Beans old crop steady to 2 higher new crop 5-8 lower
· Corn old crop 5-7 higher new crop steady to 2 higher
· Wheat 3-5 higher
· Meal 1-2 higher
· Bean oil 10-20 lower
· Rice 3-5 higher

Dollar and crude oil are lower

Nikkei up 1.964%
Hang Seng up .303%
Shanghai Index down .295%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at -42K to 346K expecting 360K

Palm oil down 16 Chinese grain markets higher beans and corn lower meal and oils

Wilmar International LTD said China’s bean imports may fall this year due to bird flu. This will be the 1st yearly drop in bean imports since 2004

Chinese industry analysts said Chinese bean area may rise this year due to corn planting delays of up to 10 day Farmers may switch to beans from corn

China did not sell any rapeseed oil at auction they offered 100,149 tons

38 confirmed human cases of Chinese bird flu with 10 human deaths.

Taiwan bought 83,980 tons of US wheat for May/June shipment

Japan bought 120,108 tons of milling wheat for May-July shipment Breakdown
19,845 tons of US winter white
32,877 tons of US HRW
22,373 tons of US dark northern spring
24,551 tons of Canada western red spring
20,462 tons of Australian white

Vietnam bought 15K Indian corn for May shipment

Bangladesh bought 50K optional origin wheat for May shipment possibly from India

Ukraine Agrarian Association said Ukraine may lift export ban on wheat in the next 2 weeks

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 53.4 MMT up 15% from 2012

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 30.1 MMT vs. 24.4 MMT in ‘12/13

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 domestic grain consumption at 27.0 MMT

Brazil port labor negotiations still underway, leaving the possibility of more strikes. – Brazilian source.

Paraguay’s lower house congress rejects bill for at 10% export tax on beans, sunflower, corn and wheat. Senate passed the bill .

USDA attaché in the EU estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 139 MMT up 5.3% from previous estimate

USDA attaché estimated ‘13/14 EU wheat exports at 20 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

USDA attaché said German wheat conditions are good

USDA attaché said France wheat suffered from excessive rains

USDA attaché said UK wheat may have suffered weather damage and UK wheat area may fall 25% from a year ago

Analysts estimated ‘12/13 Indian corn exports at 3.0-3.5 MMT vs. 4.0-4.5 MMT in ‘11/12

India’s Farm Minister estimated ‘12/13 corn crop at 21.06 MMT vs. 21.76 MMT a year ago

FAO estimated 2012 global cereal output at 2.309 B tons up 3 million from previous estimate

FAO estimated ‘12/13 global cereal ending stocks at 500 MMT

FAO estimated 2013 global wheat crop at 690 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and up 4.4% from a year ago

Asian wheat buyers bought 1.5 MMT of wheat the past 2 weeks

Some analysts believe the cool/wet spring weather in the US corn belt may reduce US corn acreage

US corn belt weather forecast cool and wet next 10-14 days

US delta rain next 2-3 days.

Freeze damage seen in Kansas and Oklahoma . Kansas low temp on Tuesday was 16 degrees and Wednesday’s low was 13 degrees. Oklahoma’s low was in the mid-20s with freezing rain.

Oklahoma State University grains analysts said “At this stage it is certain that we will have some freeze injury to the majority of the Oklahoma wheat crop, but it will be a good seven to 10 days before we can accurately assess the level of injury,”

Central US – heavy snow, rain, high winds and tornadoes yesterday.

Cash markets strong . Farmers not selling.

TALK one cargo of US beans was sold off the PNW yesterday.

22 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Morris IL

Today is the last day of the index fund roll.

Weekly US export sales report
· Wheat – ‘12/13 263,500 ‘13/14 76K (expecting 300-600K)
· Corn – ‘12/13 185,200 ‘13/14 290,800 (expecting 250-500K)
· Beans – ‘12/13 319,200 ‘13/14 64,500 (expecting 500-800K)
· Meal – ‘12/13 227,100 ‘13/14 7,500 (expecting 75-200K)
· Bean oil – ‘12/13 7,700 (expecting 0-15K)
· Cotton – ‘12/13 147,100 ‘13/14 17,300

Export highlights (Dow Jones)
· Wheat – Net sales of 263,500 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year were up 87 percent from the previous week, but down 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Nigeria (90,400 MT), the Philippines (50,000 MT), Uruguay (25,000 MT), Japan (20,100 MT), Colombia (13,800 MT), and Egypt (11,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (15,000 MT). Net sales of 76,000 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year were mainly reported for Mexico (39,200 MT), South Korea (29,300 MT), and China (7,000 MT). Exports of 772,200 MT were up 52 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (148,900 MT), Japan (137,500 MT), the Philippines (101,000 MT), Egypt (98,700 MT), Morocco (61,000 MT), and Thailand (49,500 MT).
· Corn – Net sales of 185,200 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year were down 48 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (82,000 MT, including 34,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (37,200 MT), Taiwan (33,600 MT), Colombia (24,500 MT), Honduras (15,100 MT), and Canada (12,900 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (19,300 MT) and Panama (3,300 MT). Net sales of 290,800 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year were for unknown destinations (233,000 MT), China (55,000 MT), and Nicaragua (2,800 MT). Exports of 279,800 MT were down 51 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (111,300 MT), Mexico (90,000 MT), China (54,100 MT), Panama (14,300 MT), and Taiwan (6,700 MT).
· Beans – Net sales of 319,200 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (526,000 MT, including 220,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (64,000 MT), Japan (51,400 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), Egypt (28,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Indonesia (17,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (401,900 MT). Net sales of 64,500 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were for unknown destinations (60,000 MT), Indonesia (3,000 MT), and Japan (1,500 MT). Exports of 645,700 MT were up 36 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (420,100 MT), Japan (68,200 MT), Mexico (42,400 MT), Egypt (28,300 MT), Taiwan (23,000 MT), Colombia (21,100 MT), and Indonesia (15,400 MT). Note: Accumulated exports were adjusted down for the Netherlands (54,400 MT).
· Meal – Net sales of 227,100 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (56,500 MT), Mexico (49,800 MT), Venezuela (35,000 MT), Colombia (18,700 MT), Canada (14,800 MT), and the Philippines (10,700 MT). Net sales of 7,500 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for Mexico (5,600 MT) and Canada (1,900 MT). Exports of 123,800 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (44,800 MT), Mexico (34,200 MT), Canada (12,700 MT), Panama (8,100 MT), the Philippines (6,500 MT), and Colombia (5,400 MT).
· Bean oil – Net sales of 7,700 MT for the 2012/2013 marketing year were down noticeably from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (3,600 MT), Venezuela (2,500 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Nicaragua (500 MT). Exports of 7,100 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (4,100 MT), Canada (2,400 MT)and Nicaragua (500 MT).
· Cotton – Net Upland sales of 147,100 running bales for the 2012/2013 marketing year were down 1 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (99,200 RB), Vietnam (22,600 RB), Thailand (8,500 RB, including 800 RB switched from India and 800 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 200 RB), Brazil (6,000 RB), and Taiwan (3,800 RB). Decreases were reported for Turkey (10,900 RB), Mexico (2,400 RB), and El Salvador (1,100 RB). Net sales of 17,300 RB for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for Mexico (7,000 RB) and South Korea (6,300 RB). Exports of 271,800 RB were down 25 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (109,300 RB), Turkey (49,400 RB), Vietnam (21,800 RB), Mexico (17,600 RB), Indonesia (11,600 RB), and Bangladesh (9,500 RB). Net American Pima sales of 5,600 RB for 2012/2013 marketing year were down 72 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Indonesia (2,300 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from India), China (1,600 RB) and Taiwan (1,500 RB switched from India). Decreases were reported for India (1,400 RB). Exports of 24,000 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 7 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to China (11,500 RB), Egypt (7,300 RB), India (2,000 RB), and South Korea (700 RB).

Open interest as of yesterday’s close
· CK 328,965 open, down 19,254
· CN 379,732 open, up 15,278
· Total corn 1,301,410 open, up 4,185
· SK 188,377 open, down 13,321
· SN 196,695 open, up 2,447
· Total beans 569,884 open, down 6,234
· SMK 75,627 open, down 8,663
· SMN 102,363 open, up 6,237
· Total meal 263,779 down, 80
· BOK 107,737 open, down 12,049
· BON 139,241 open, up 9,902
· Total bean oil 362,446 open, down 1,400
· WK 117,451 open, down 10,311
· WN 173,812 open, up 10,889
· Total wheat 443,761 open, up 3,123

Upcoming reports/events
Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting – 21 B
Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
Surveyors Intertek and SGS will estimate Malaysia’s April 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CDT
Weekly US crop progress report Monday should show US corn plantings for the first time this season expecting 4-6% complete
Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg