News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!
Peter Venkman

CBOT grain markets as of 912 am CST
· SK down 6 ½ at 1373 ¾ volume of 13,957
· CK down 2 at 639 ½ volume of 24,504
· WK down 8 at 688 ½ volume of 22,852
· SMK down 1.90 at 396.10 volume of 5,559
· BOK down 28 at 4887 volume of 10,196
· RRK down 1 at 1564 volume of 102

Crude, gold, silver lower. Dollar higher

Nikkei up 2.203%
Hang Seng down .136%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +28K to 385K expecting 356K

ECB left interest rates unchanged at .75% as expected

Draghi had a press conference today. It is now over.

BOJ changes policy target to base money from interest rates (Reuters)

BOE left interest rates unchanged at .5% as expected

China is on holiday today and tomorrow. Trading resumes on Monday

Palm oil is down 4.

Analyst expect March Malaysian palm oil stocks to fall to 2.35 MMT vs. February stocks of 2.44 MMT

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 2.04 MMT of palm oil in February vs. 1.87 MMT in January (the most exports in one month since 2008). Bloomberg survey estimate for February exports were 1.51 MMT

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 3.9 MMT of palm oil in January – February up 29% from a year ago

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia 2013 palm oil output at 28 M

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia 2013 palm oil exports at 18.0 MMT

TALK China’s Sinograin has bought 100K – 1.0 MMT of US SRW Wheat . NOT confirmed.

Iran bought 225K Indian meal for April shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 139K South American corn for August shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 4K Indian barley for July shipment

No weekly Japan wheat tender this week

India canceled tender to sell 50K rice due to no bids

India to issue tender next week to sell 5 MMT of wheat and India may drop wheat sale price

JRG Wealth Management estimated India’s 2013wheat crop at 92.3 MMT and domestic demand at 76.0 MMT

Continental Rice Corp in Tokyo said Japan’s 3rd quarter US corn imports may jump 41% from 2nd quarter US corn import estimate of 2.6 MMT in the 1st quarter Japan imported 1.85 MMT of US corn down 25% from a year ago. Japan needs to import 3.7 MMT of corn in the 3rd quarter for animal feed and food expecting 70% of that will come from the US

Egypt’s Oil Minister said Egypt aims to remove subsidies for bread , other basic food, and oils in 3-5 years

Russia Ag Min said 1.2% of the spring crop planting is complete on 634,600 hectares vs. 0% a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min estimated spring grain planting area at 30.3 MH and they will need to replant some of the winter grain crop making the total spring planted area at 33.0 MH

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 52.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.3 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 42.1. Wheat crop estimated at 21.1 MMT, Barley crop estimated at 8.3 MMT, and corn crop estimated at 21.2 MMT

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 corn yield at 5.11 TPH vs. 4.53 TPH a year ago

French National Institute for Agriculture Research said French wheat yield could fall by 6% if current cold snap lasts through mid-April

Commonwealth Bank said France winter wheat crops are 2 weeks behind schedule

Bean wait times at Brazil’s Santos port range from 5-45 days

Bean wait times at Brazil’s Paranagua port range from 1-61 days

Reports of bird flu in China

Rains in forecast for US Plains

Brazil wet

Light scattered showers in Argentina through next Thursday and then heavier rains are in forecast

Cold snap in Europe next 10 days

75 ethanol deliveries with the date moving to 4/03

38 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

Rice limits are back to normal. .50 cents

Weekly US export sales report
· Wheat ‘12/13 141,200 , ‘13/14 174,800 (expecting 400-700K)
· Corn ‘12/13 354,300 , ‘13/14 33,000 (expecting 175-400K)
· Beans ‘12/13 369,700 , ‘13/14 355,100 (expecting 300-625K)
· Meal ‘12/13 92,600 , ‘13/14 12,700 (expecting 40-150K)
· Bean oil ‘12/13 – 4,600 (expecting 0-15K )
· Cotton ‘12/13 148,300 , ‘13/14 59,300

Export highlights
· Wheat ‘12/13 Egypt bought 107,600 , Mexico bought 77,700 , Spain bought 68K , Brazil bought 30K , unknown canceled 194,500 Germany canceled 20K ‘13/14 Philippines bought 100K
· Corn ‘12/13 Japan bought 202,400 , Mexico bought 163,200 , China bought 109,000, unknown canceled 231,200 ‘13/14 Mexico bought 33K
· Beans ‘12/13 China bought 138,400 , Mexico bought 132,200 , Germany bought 54,400 , ‘13/14 China bought 354K
· Meal ‘12/13 Poland bought 40,100 , Morocco bought 30K Canada bought 11,600 , unknown canceled 42,400 Ireland canceled 8,400 ‘13/14 Ireland bought 10K Jamaica bought 2,700
· Bean oil ‘12/13 Venezuela bought 2,500 Canada bought 900 Dominican Republic canceled 8,100
· Cotton ‘12/13 Turkey bought 38,900 China bought 14,100 Brazil bought 13,600 ‘13/14 El Salvador bought 26,600 Thailand bought 13,600

News from yesterday afternoon . (I apologize I didn’t put out an afternoon recap yesterday. Had to leave early for personal reasons)
Jordan canceled tender for 100K wheat for May/June shipment .
Bunge will temporarily shut down bean processing plant in Kansas starting May 1st through mid- September due to tight supplies
Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘12/13 Argentine corn crop at 25.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT
Rosario said 23% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested
Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘12/13 Argentine bean crop at 48.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
Rosario estimated ‘12/13 Argentine bean area at 19.5 MH
Iraq bought 80K tons of rice from Thailand
Estimated Fund activity from yesterday
Wheat bought 10K
Corn bought 2K
Beans sold 5K
Meal sold 3K
Bean oil sold 2,500
Open outcry option players from yesterday
ADM bought 1,000 May bean 1460 calls at 2 7/8 – 3
Tenco bought 1,100 Nov bean 1260p/1360c strangles at 120-126
Rand bought 5,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 4 (They bought 5,000 on Tuesday as well)
Barclay sold 5,000 Dec corn 480p/600c strangles at 43
FC Stone bought 900 July corn 690 puts and sold 1,800 July corn 640 puts at 2 debit
New Edge bought 1,500 Dec corn 620 calls and sold 750 Dec wheat 770 calls at even
Rosenthal bought 700 July wheat 750 calls at 14 5/8 – 15

Informa estimates from yesterday.
· US All winter wheat at 1.631 billion bu, down 14 million bu LY
· US HRW wheat at 903 million bu, down 101 million bu LY
· US SRW wheat at 506 million bu, up 86 million bu LY
· US White wheat at 223 million bu, up 1 million bu LY
· Informa increased winter wheat abandonment in NE, KS and OK. This suggests total abandonment will be 7.4 million acres or 18% of total plantings.
· 2012 US cotton production at 17.3 MB up 296,000 from March estimate
· Brazil beans at 83.25 MMT vs. March estimate of 84.5 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 83.5
· Brazil corn 71.95 MMT vs. March estimate of 71.60 and vs. USDA estimate of 72.5
· Argentine beans 52.0 MMT vs. March estimate of 51.0 and vs. USDA estimate of 51.5
· Argentine corn 25.3 MMT vs. March estimate of 25.0 and vs. USDA estimate of 26.5
· Argentine sunflower 3.45 MMT vs. March estimate of 3.35
· China corn 213.0 MMT vs. March estimate of 205.0 and vs. USDA estimate of 208.0
· China wheat 120.0 MMT vs. March estimate of 118.0 and vs. USDA estimate of 120.6
· China beans 11.5 MMT vs. March estimate of 14.0 and vs. USDA estimate of 12.6
· Morocco wheat 4.756 MMT vs. March estimate of 3.75 and vs. USDA estimate of 3.4
· South Africa corn 12.25 MMT vs. March estimate of 12.5 and vs. USDA estimate of 13.0
· Canadian canola 15.75 MMT vs. March estimate of 16.5 and vs. USDA estimate of 13.31

Open interest as of yesterday’s close
· CK 438,909 open, down 23,645
· Total corn 1,302,640 open, down 12,476
· SK 236,379 open, up 893
· Total beans 575,328 open, up 10,528
· SMK 118,694 open, down 1,708
· Total meal 268,889 open, up 5,242
· BOK 145,149 open, down 1,903
· Total bean oil 345,298 open, up 4,728
· WK 168,895 open, down 2,394
· Total wheat 442,661 open, up 4,566

Upcoming reports/events
Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 92 B
Unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and lasts 5 days. They will be rolling long May positions to July.
Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
See attachment for new CBOT grain trading hours
CME Group reduces CBOT grain and oilseed trading hours. The new hours will start Sunday April 7th. New hours are electronic 7 pm CST – 7:45 am CST (then a 45 minute pause) open outcry and electronic will begin trading at 830 am CST and trading will end at 1:15 pm CST. The mini contracts will trade electronically and in open outcry market until 1:45 pm CST
Conab Brazilian crop estimate report comes out on April 9th.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out April 10th with their March data report.
USDA supply and demand and crop progress report comes out on April 10th at 11 am CST
NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CST
Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg