“Good writin’ ain’t necessarily good readin’.”
― Ken Kesey
Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their world crop production estimates and with US winter wheat and cotton estimates . See below for previous estimates.
CBOT grain markets as of 913 am CST
· SK down 4 ½ at 1389 ½ volume of 23,153
· CK up 5 ½ at 646 volume of 29,343
· WK up 15 at 685 ¾ volume of 22,648
· SMK down 3.40 at 398.70 volume of 9,427
· BOK up 13 at 4972 volume of 11,885
· RRK up 3.50 at 1580 volume of 450
Crude , gold, silver, and dollar are lower.
Nikkei up 2.989%
Hang Seng down .136%
Shanghai Index down .106%
Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday
· Crude draw of 4.7 MB expecting a build of 2.2 MB
· Gas a draw of 5.0 MB expecting a draw of 800K
· Distillates a draw of 1.9 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
Palm oil up 14. Chinese grain markets lower except for oils were higher.
Malaysia is holding general elections today
Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese crush breakdown
· For the week of March 23- March 29 total crushing volume was at 1,223,850 tons up 12.91% from a week ago (1,085,750 tons last week)
· For the week March 23 –March 29 Total crush capacity utilization in China at 48.11% up 5.19% from a week ago (42.92% last week)
· Total March crushing volume estimated at 4.96 MMT .
· Some crushing plants stopped crushing by the end of March due to lack of beans.
· Expect crushing rate to pick back up by mid-April
· Total crush volume between October 1st 2012 – March 29th 2013 at 28,979,700 tons down 1.6% from a year ago
· Total crush volume between Jan 1st 2013- March 29th 2013 at 13,417,120 tons up .56% from a year ago
· As of 3/29/13 total imported bean stocks at 4.2691 MMT down 102,500 tons from a week ago and down 11.37% from a year ago
· Expecting China’s April bean import arrival at 4.0 MMT due to Brazilian port congestion.
China Cereals and Oils Business Net estimated April 2013 – September 2013 China palm oil imports at 2.39 MMT
China Cereals and Oils Business Net estimated September 2012 – March 2013 China palm oil imports at 3.56 MMT vs. 2.68 MMT a year ago
China Cereals and Oils Business Net said palm oil stocks at Chinese ports at 1.46 MMT and will remain above 1 MMT through July
China Cereals and Oils Business Net estimated ‘12/13 Chinese palm oil imports at 5.95 MMT vs. Shanghai’s JC Intelligence estimate of 5.90 MMT and vs. Oil World estimate of 6.75 MMT
Reports of bird flu in China
China corn stocks at northern ports at 3.15 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT a year ago
COFCO may import more US spring wheat because China is disappointed in the gluten content of Canadian wheat
China is on holiday Thursday and Friday
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates
· ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at record high 85.0 MMT
· ‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 82.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 83.5 MMT
· ‘13/14 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 40.0 MMT
· ‘12/13 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 38.0 MMT
· Argentina’s ‘12/13 bean crop estimated at 48.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 51.5 MMT
· Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 56.0 MMT
· Said Argentine bean harvest is about 5% complete
· ‘12/13 Paraguay bean crop estimated at 8.35 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 7.75 MMT
· Said 95% of the Paraguay bean crop has been harvested and yields are 2.5 – 3.0 TPH
Vietnam bought 10K Argentine meal for May shipment
Japan bought 32,320 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender for July shipment
Tunisia bought 42K durum wheat and 25K feed barley
South Korea seeks 140K optional origin corn for August shipment and seeks 10K barley for July shipment
Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for July shipment
Egypt’s Cabinet said current Egypt wheat stocks at 2.19 MMT enough supply for 88 days
Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 90-92 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90-95 MMT , vs. IKAR estimate of 90-92 MMT and vs. SovEcon estimate of 83-89MMT
Ukraine Ag Min said 92% of the winter grain crop is in good to satisfactory condition
Argentina is back from holiday today.
Oat limits are back to normal today. .20 cents
Rice closed limit up yesterday. Limits are expanded to .75 cents today. Normal daily limits are .50 cents.
31 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon
Credit Suisse CBOT price forecasts
· 2013 average corn price forecasted at $6.30 vs. previous forecast of $6.10
· 2014 average corn price forecasted at $5.35 vs. previous forecast of $5.20
· 2013 average bean price forecasted at $13.60 vs. previous forecast of $13.80
· 2014 average bean price forecasted at $12.19 vs. previous of $12.30
· 2013 average wheat price forecasted at $ 6.70 vs. previous of $7.70
· 2014 average wheat price forecasted at $6.28 vs. $6.75 previously
Open interest as of yesterday’s close
· CK 462,655 open, down 30,241
· Total corn 1,315,792 open, down 25,898
· SK 235,815 open, down 4,895
· Total beans 565,439 open, down 277
· SMK 120,438 open, down 1,676
· Total meal 263,747 open, down 1,046
· BOK 147,071 open, up 1,645
· Total bean oil 341,043 open, up 7,801
· WK 171,393 open, down 13,484
· Total wheat 438,887 open, down 6,147
Informa’s previous estimates
‘12/13 Argentine bean crop estimated at 51.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.5 MMT
‘12/13 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.0 MMT
‘12/13 Argentine wheat crop estimated at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.5 MMT
‘12/13 Argentine sunflower estimated at 3.35 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.45 MMT
‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 84.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 84.0 MMT
‘12/13 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 71.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.3 MMT
‘12/13 Indian wheat crop estimated at 92.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.0 MMT
They did not have any US winter wheat estimates in their last report.
Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST expecting
Crude a build of 2.05 MB
Gas a draw of 1.0 MB
Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB
Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
ECB meets tomorrow and will announce interest rate decision currently at .75%
BOJ monetary policy meeting ends tomorrow
Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting – 87 B
Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday and lasts 5 days. They will be rolling long May positions to July.
Unemployment comes out Friday .
CME Group reduces CBOT grain and oilseed trading hours. The new hours will start Sunday April 7th. New hours are electronic 7 pm CST – 7:45 am CST (then a 45 minute pause) open outcry and electronic will begin trading at 830 am CST and trading will end at 1:15 pm CST. The mini contracts will trade electronically and in open outcry market until 1:45 pm CST
Conab Brazilian crop estimate report comes out on April 9th.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out April 10th with their March data report.
USDA supply and demand and crop progress report comes out on April 10th at 11 am CST
NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CST
Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th