News From the Grain Floor 04/16/13

Good morning

“When walking through a melon patch, don’t adjust your sandals.”

Proverb

July beans, corn, wheat , and bean oil go top step (spot month) tonight/tomorrow.

Overnight closes

·         SK up 4 ¼ at 1407 ½

·         CK up 2 ¼ at 649

·         WK up 2 ¼ at 696

·         SMK up 3.80 at 397.10

·         BOK up 37 at 4855

·         RRK up 7 at 1551

Overnight volume

·         SK 11,609

·         CK 6,442

·         WK 4,756

·         SMK 3,636

·         BOK 9,078

·         RRK 216

Opening Calls

·         Beans 10-15 higher

·         Corn 1-3 higher

·         Wheat 1-3 higher

·         Meal 4-5 higher

·         Bean oil 35-45 higher

·         Rice 5-7 higher

Crude oil lower. Dollar, silver, gold, and stock market is higher

Nikkei down .408%

Hang Seng down .462%

Shanghai Index up .590%

As of the close today CME will raise margins on gold, silver, platinum and Nat Gas

Palm oil unchanged . Chinese bean markets lower except for beans which was a little higher

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s 4/1/13-4/15/13 palm oil exports at 630,000 down 7% from a month ago

China’s bird flu causes over 10 billion Yuan loss for poultry industry

WHO said world flu experts will travel to China within a week to investigate H7N9 bird flu damage

Bloomberg Survey said China’s ‘13/14 bean imports will fall for the 1st time in 8 years

Ciara- Cec said Argentina grain exports could hit record high this year

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for April/May shipment

FAO estimated Mexico’s ‘12/13 cereal imports at 15.6 MMT down 12% a year ago

FAO said Mexico’s spring/summer crop planting has begun (accounts for 70% of their total production) and planting area may increase

FAO estimated Mexico’s fall-winter crop at 4.8 MMT down 10% from a year ago

FAO estimated Mexico’s 2013 corn crop at 22.4 MMT up 4% from the 5 year average

IGC estimated ‘12/13 Argentina corn exports at 18.5 MMT up 20% from a year ago

IGC estimated ‘12/13 Argentina corn crop at 26.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘12/13 Argentina corn domestic consumption at 8.5 MMT

TALK Canadian farmers switching to canola acres from spring wheat acres due to heavy snow coverage

Bloomberg survey estimated South African corn crop at 11.5 MMT vs. government estimated of 11.8 MMT

Commerzbank said Russia wheat quality is weaker than expected

Warmer/drier weather in forecast for US corn belt by the end of April

20 oat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

38 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Cosur SA (top Argentina exporter)

·         Said 2nd half 2013 China bean imports may fall due to bird flu

·         Estimated 2013 Argentine bean exports at 9 MMT up 50% from a year ago

·         Estimated 2013 Argentina bean crop at 51.0 MMT

·         Estimated Argentine bean crushing at 36.0 MMT up 4 M from a year ago

·         Said Argentina has sold 12 MMT of new crop corn by June shipment

·         Said Argentine ships loading in 1-2 weeks

·         2013 Argentine corn exports estimated at 16.5 MMT basically unchanged from 2012

·         Estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 25.0 MMT

Clarivi (Brazilian consultancy) Brazilian bean harvest estimates

·         Rio Grande do Sul 44% complete vs. 55% a year ago

·         Mato Grosso virtually complete

·         Parana 90% complete

·         Total Brazil 84.4% complete vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 86.9% a year ago

 

US weekly crop progress report from yesterday

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 36% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 64% a year ago (market was expecting a drop of 2-6% due to cold weather last week)
  • Condition 31% poor to very poor vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 11% a year ago
  • Headed 4% vs. 28% a year ago and vs. 12% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat conditions by state

·         Texas 17% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago , 50% poor to very poor down 1% from a week ago

·         Oklahoma 25% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago , 37% poor to very poor up 4% from a week ago

·         Kansas good to excellent 30% down 1% from a week ago , 33% poor to very poor  up 3% from a week ago

Farmers still assessing winter wheat freeze damage in Kansas and Oklahoma

Spring wheat

  • Planted 6% vs. 33% a year ago and vs. 13% 5 year average

Corn

  • Planted 2% vs. 16% a year ago and vs. 7% 5 year average (market was expecting 2-7% complete)

Corn planting by state

·         Illinois 1% vs. 12% average

·         Iowa has not planted any corn vs. 3% average

 

Rice

  • Planted 23% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 31% 5 year average
  • Emerged 12% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 13% 5 year average

Cotton

  • Planted 8% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 10% 5 year average

 

Soybean planting by state

·         Mississippi 4% complete vs. 0% week ago vs. 29% year ago and vs. 18% average

·         Louisiana 11% complete vs. 7% week ago vs. 22% year ago and vs. 17% average

·         Arkansas 1% complete vs. 0% week ago vs. 18% year ago and vs. 9% average

·         Texas 38% complete vs. 28% a week ago vs. 35% year ago and vs. 43% average

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CK 278,743 open, down 16,861

·         CN 409,538 open, up 7,758

·         Total corn 1,294,880 open, down 7,770

·         SK 146,569 open, down 16,257

·         SN 219,267 open, up 7,138

·         Total beans 558,609 open, down 6,368

·         SMK 60,265 open,  down 5,060

·         SMN 115,171 open, up 35

·         Total meal 265,163 open, down 4,652

·         BOK 94,891 open, down 371

·         BON 156,007 open, up 6,945

·         Total bean oil 369,849 open, up 8,326

·         WK 93,146 open, down 6,006

·         WN 195,721 open, up 4,450

·         Total wheat 448,664 open, up 713

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Brazilian dock workers to stage 1 day strike on April 18th . Brazilian government said they will try to avoid
  • G20 summit Thursday and Friday.
  • Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
  • Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
  • May options expire April 26th
  • Position day for May futures is April 29th
  • First notice day for May futures is April 30th
  • CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg