News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • RUMORS of Cargill closing crushing plant in IN for the summer due to bean shortage
  • Safras e Mercados said Brazilian farmers have not sold any of the ‘13/14 bean crop yet. A year ago farmers had sold 14% of the ‘12/13 crop. 5 year average of forward sales is 4%
  • US Coast Guard reopened a stretch of the Mississippi river near Hartford IL.
  • India’s Farm Minister ‘12/13 crop estimates
    • Wheat crop estimated at 93.62 MMT vs. previous estimate of 92.3 MMT and vs. 94.88 MMT a year ago
    • Domestic wheat consumption estimated at about 76.0 MMT
    • Rice crop estimated at 104.22 MMT vs. 105.3 MMT a year ago
    • Corn crop estimated at 21.82 MMT vs. 21.76 MMT a year ago
    • Soybean crop estimated at 14.14 MMT vs. 12.2 MMT a year ago
    • Oilseed crop estimated at 30.7 MMT vs. 29.8 MMT a year ago
    • Total grain crop estimated at 255.36 MMT vs. 259.3 MMT a year ago
    • Cotton crop estimated at 33.8 MMT  vs. 35.2 MMT a year ago
  • Informa came out today at 1030 am CDT today. Here is a recap from the report
    • 2013 US winter wheat crop estimated at 1.529 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.631 BB
    • 2013 US winter wheat yield estimated at 45.0 BPA vs. 47.2 BPA a year ago
    • Total winter wheat abandonment estimated at 8.0 MA about 19% of total plantings.
    • 2013 HRW US crop estimated at 798 MB vs. previous estimate of 903 MB
    • 2013 HRW wheat yield estimated at 35.8 BPA vs. 40.7 BPA a year ago
    • 2013 US SRW crop estimated at 508 MB vs. previous estimate of 506 M
    • 2013 US SRW wheat yield estimated at 60.0 BPA vs. 60.3 BPA a year ago
    • 2013 US white wheat crop estimated at 222 MB unchanged from a year ago
    • 2012 US cotton production estimated at 17.31 MB vs. previous estimate of 17.3 MB
    • ‘12/13 Argentine bean crop estimated at 53.0  MMT vs. previous estimate of 52.0 MMT
    • ‘12/13 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.3   MMT
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 82.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 83.25  MMT
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 82.65 MMT up 6.4 M from previous estimate
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 76.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 71.95  MMT
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 66.4 MMT down 3.6 M from previous estimate
    • 2012 South African corn crop estimated at 12.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.25 MMT
    • 2013 Ukraine corn crop estimated at 24.5 MMT
    • 2013 China’s wheat crop estimated at 120.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and down 580K tons from a year ago
    • 2013 EU wheat crop estimated at 138.0 MMT up 6 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global corn crop estimated at 966 MMT (record) up 110 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global wheat crop estimated at 705 MMT up 51 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global oilseeds crop estimated at 385 MMT up 17 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global bean crop estimated at 282.7 MMT up 13 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global sorghum production estimated at 65.0 MMT up 6 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global barley production estimated at 137.2 MMT up 7 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global rice crop estimated at 468 MMT up 1 M from a year ago
    • 2013 global cotton crop estimated at 111 MB down 10 M from a year ago and up 1.5 M from previous estimate
    • 2013 China cotton crop estimated at 30.2 MB down 4 M from a year ago
  • July corn closed below the 50 day moving average of 663. July corn settled at 661 ¼
  • July meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 409.40. July meal settled at 406.50
  • Weekly COT supplemental report came out today at 230 pm CDT. Large Spec positions as of 4/30/13 Futures and options combined
    • Wheat short 38,393
    • KC Wheat short 5,422
    • Corn short 13,227
    • Beans long 52,171
    • Meal long 15,869
    • Bean oil short 69,719
  • General elections in Malaysia on Sunday
  • ECB president speaks in Rome on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out Monday at 3 pm CDT . Expecting corn planting to be 13-19% complete vs. five year average of 45-47%. We should see bean planting on this report, expecting about 2-5% complete.
  • German and France Finance Minister meet on Tuesday
  • On Thursday Chinese economic data comes out
  • G8 meets in the UK on Friday
  • On the close in the open outcry market Rand bought 1,000 Dec/Jan bean oil spreads at 2 over
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 1,000 June bean 1400 calls at 18 ½ -19
    • ADM bought 1,000 June bean 1350 puts at 10-10 ¾
    • FI bought 2,000 June corn 680 calls at 11-11 ¼ and sold 720 July futures at 662 ¾
    • New Edge sold 2,000 July short dated corn 510/560 call spreads at 29 ¼ -29 ½
    • FC Stone bought 2,000 Dec corn 480/400 put spreads and sold 2,000 Dec corn 700 calls at 1 ½ debit
    • ABN sold 1,500 June wheat 760 call at 6 ½ -7
    • JP Morgan sold 500 June meal 420 calls at 6.25 tied to futures at 412
    • RJO sold 200 June bean oil 47.50 puts at 35

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 28 660 str 35 ½-36 ½

N vol 30 660 str 27 ½ -58 ½

Q vol 33 ½ 580 str 73 ½ -75 ½

U vol 33 ½ 580 str 84 ½-86

Z vol 30 ¼ 550 str 98 ½-99 ½

H vol 28 ¼ 560 str 112-114

 

Beans

M vol 18 1390 str 48 ½-50 ½

N vol 19 1390 str 77-79

Q vol 21 1330 str 106 ½-109

U vol 21 1260 str 116 ½-119 ½

X vol 20 ½ 1220 str 137-139 ½

F vol 19 ¾ 1220 str 153-157

H vol 19 ¼ 1240 str 166 ½-171 ½

 

Wheat

M vol 27 720 str 33-38

N vol 28 ¾ 720 str 59-61

U vol 29 730 str 93-95

Z vol 27 ¼ 750 str 121-122

H vol 25 760 str 132-136

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 26 820 str 54-62

U vol 25 ½ 820 str 82-92

Z vol 26 830 str 110-120

H vol only 23

 

KC Wheat

N vol 25 ½ 780 str 57-65

U vol 26 790 str 88-95

Z vol 26 ½ 810 str 127-137

H vol 22 ½ 820 str 128-130

 

Meal

M vol 22.5 410 str 17-20

N vol 23.25 410 str 27.5-29.5

Q vol 23.75 390 str 35-37

U vol 23.75 360 str 37.5-40.5

V vol 23.75 350 str 40-43

Z vol 22.5 340 str 45-47

F vol 22 350 str 48-50

 

Bean oil

M vol 19 49 str 165-185

N vol 19 49 str 250-270

Q vol 18.75 49 str 345-365

U vol 18.75 49 str 400-430

V vol 18.75 48.5 str 435-445

Z vol 18.5 48 str 510-530

F vol 18.25 48 str 535-565

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

MAY        10-15            5-10

JLY            55-55.5        48.5-49.5

AUG        56.5-57        55-56

SEP          71-72            70-72.5

OCT         70-71            70-71

DEC          62.5-63.5     63.5-64

JAN          58.5-60        59-60

MCH        59.5-61        60-61

MAY        59.5-61         59.5-61

 

Crush players

 

FC Stone sold 50 July crush at 54.75

 

RJO sold 50 July crush at 55.25

 

Oil Share player

 

Rosenthal bought 106 Sept oil/meal at 39.90-40.10%

 

Thank you and have a nice weekend.

 

Kate Rosenberg