News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Rabobank price forecasts
    • 4th quarter 2014 average corn price forecasted at $4.10
    • 4th quarter 2014 average bean price forecasted at $10.70
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey China’s December palm oil imports are estimated at 550,000 tons (8 month high) vs. 500,000 tons in November
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey China’s ‘13/14 palm oil exports estimated at 6.35 MMT unchanged from ‘12/13
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s 2013 palm oil output estimated at 26.5 MMT down 1.9% from 2012 ( first yearly drop in 15 years)
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated Jan – Feb 2014 grain exports at 3.0 MMT
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated Dec grain exports at 3.5 MMT vs. November record of 4.7 MMT
  • Snow and freezing temps in forecast for US Plains today through the weekend
  • Favorable Russian and Ukraine weather
  • TALK – Some parts of Brazil may harvest beans earlier than normal
  • March wheat made new contract lows today of 626 ½  
  • December futures expired today at noon CST . Settlements were
    • Dec corn settled at 420 ½
    • Dec wheat settled at 618 ¼
    • Dec KC wheat settled at 657
    • Dec meal settled at 462.90 – a one lot traded in the pit right before expiration at 510.00… Jefferies bought the one lot and Rosenthal sold the one lot at 510.00
    • Dec bean oil settled at 3947
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia Dec 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA’s November crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST. Expecting
    • Crush = average estimate 161.3 MB, range of estimates are 157.5 – 170.0 MB, October’s crush was 157.063 MB and Nov 2012 crush was 157.308 MB
    • Bean oil stocks = average estimate 1.437 B pounds, range of estimates are 1.375-1.498 B, October’s bean oil stocks were 1.356 B and November 2012 stocks were 2.385 B
    • Meal exports = no estimates are given for meal exports, October meal exports were 701,802 tons and November 2012 exports were 1,039,965 tons
  • On Tuesday March beans, soymeal, and bean oil will be top step (spot month)
  • Open outcry option players
    • Jefferies sold 1,000 Nov bean 1120 puts at 55-55 ¼ and sold 380 Nov futures at 1153
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1120/1000 put spreads at 36
    • FI bought 1,000 Jan corn 425/410 put spreads at 2 7/8
    • JP Morgan bought 1,500 March wheat 630/610 put spreads at 9 3/8 and bought 255 March futures at 630
    • RJO bought 300 March meal 400
    • Tenco bought 1,000 March bean oil 38 puts at 40 tied to futures at 4015 – on the close

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1,500
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans bought 3,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,500

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

F vol 17 425 str 10 ½-12

G vol 20 ½ 425 str 23 ¼-24 ¼

H vol 20 ½ 425 str 30-31

K vol 20 ¼ 430 str 42 ½ -43 ¼

N vol 20 ¼ 440 str 53 ½-55 ½

U vol 23 450 str 67-68 ½

Z14 vol 21 ¾ 450 str 74 ½-76

 

Beans

F vol 14 ¾ 1330 str 31 ½-32 ½

G vol 17 ½ 1310 str 62-64

H vol 17 ¼ 1310 str 78 ½-80

K vol 17 1300 str 103-105

N vol 17 ¼ 1280 str 125-128

X vol 16 ¾ 1160 str 141-143

 

Wheat

F vol 14 ½ 630 str 15-17

H vol 17 ½ 630 str 29-31

K vol 18 ½ 630 str 55-58

N vol 20 640 str 73-75

U vol 20 ½ 650 str 87-90

Z vol 20 660 str 100-103

 

KC Wheat

F vol 15 670 str 14-16

H vol 16 670 str 35-39

K vol 16 ¾ 680 str 53-55

N vol 18 ¼ 670 str 67-72

 

Minneapolis wheat

F vol 16 660 str 11-18

H vol 15 660 str 31-38

K vol 16 680 str 48-55

N vol 17 ½ 680 str 65-72

U vol 18 ½ 690 str 80-88

Z vol 18 ½ 710 str 90-103

 

Meal

F vol 22.5 430 str 15.75-16.75

G vol 22 420 str 26-28

H vol 22.5 420 str 32.5-34.5

K vol 20.5 410 str 40-42

N vol 19.25 400 str 43.5-45.5

Q vol 18 390 str 44-47

 

Bean oil

F vol 15.5 40 str 85-105

G vol 16.75 40 str 170-190

H vol 16.5 40 str 220-240

K vol 16 40.5 str 300-320

N vol 15.75 41 str 350-375

Q vol 15.75 41 str 380-410