News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Lanworth estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 25.294 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.822 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 955.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 288.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 707.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US bean crop at 3.215 BB and estimated bean yield at 41.8 BPA unchanged from previous estimates
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US corn crop at 13.795 BB  vs. previous estimate of 13.792 BB
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US corn yield at 156.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 156.2 BPA
  • JC Intelligence Co. said China has bought 120,000 tons of US corn over the past 2 weeks.
  • JC Intelligence Co. said China bought over 1.3 MMT of US corn in October 30, 2013
  • JC Intelligence Co. estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 7.0 MMT (record)
  • India cut wheat export floor price to $260 per ton from $300 per ton to boost exports – Reuters
  • Brazilian Trade Minister raised tax-free wheat import quota by 600,000 tons to 3.3 MMT
  • Hearing Mexico bought/seeking US corn (yesterday)
  • Today was the first day of the Rogers roll. They are rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions to March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan. In the last minute of trade
    • Corn – 8,578 ZH spreads traded at 11 ½ electronically and 1,266 ZH spreads traded at 11 ½ in the pit
    • Wheat – 4,000 ZH spreads traded at 11 ½ electronically and 400 ZH spreads traded in the pit
    • KC wheat – 1,186 ZH spreads traded electronically at 1
    • Meal – 1,248 ZF spreads traded electronically at 9.00
    • Bean oil – 1,710 ZF spreads traded electronically and 100 ZF traded in the pit at – 29 to – 28
  • Jan beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1277 ¼ . Jan beans settled at 1276 ½.
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Tomorrow is first notice day for Nov futures. Expecting
    • 0 bean deliveries, 0 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
    • 0 rice deliveries, 257 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their October Malaysia palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT for the weeks ending Oct 10th, 17th, and 24th. All three weeks data will be combined . Expecting
    • Wheat 1.5-2.0 M tons
    • Corn 1.9-2.5 M tons
    • Beans 2.5-3.1 M tons
    • Meal 800,000 – 1.1 M tons
    • Bean oil 40,000 – 160,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • CONAB will come out November 8th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • Open outcry option players
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 1250 puts and sold 2,000 Jan bean 1150 puts at 15 debit
    • ADM sold 1,000 Dec corn 460 calls at 3
    • ADM sold 1,000 Dec corn 450 puts at 21
    • ADM sold 500 Dec corn 470 calls at 1 ¾
    • Mizuho sold 1,000 Dec 2014 corn 380 puts at 9 ¼
    • GFI bought 750 Dec meal 400 puts at 5.75
    • JP Morgan bought 500 Jan bean oil 42.5 calls at 85 tied to futures at 4185

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans bot 5K
  • Meal bot 1K
  • Bean oil bot 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Z vol 25 430 str 21 ½-22 ½

F vol 22 ½ 430 str 31-32 ½

H vol 22 ½ 440 str 43 ¾-44 ¾

K vol 23 ¼ 450 str 55 ½-56 ½

N vol 22 ¾ 460 str 66-67 ½

U vol 24 460 str 79-80 ½

Z 14 vol 22 ¾ 470 str 86 ½-88

 

Beans

Z vol 18 ¾ 1280 str 48-50

F vol 17 ½ 1280 str 70-72

H vol 18 ¾ 1260 str 105-107

K vol 18 ½ 1240 str 126-128

N vol 18 1240 str 141-143

X14 vol 17 ½ 1160 str 158-160

 

Wheat

Z vol 20 670 str 26-28

F vol 18 ½ 690 str 40-42

H vol 20 ½ 690 str 62-65

K vol 21 ½ 690 str 81-83

N vol 22 680 str 94-97

 

KC Wheat

Z vol 20 750 str 30-32

H vol 19 ¾ 750 str 65-68

K vol 20 ½ 740 str 83-87

N vol 21 730 str 95-100

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 17 730 str 22-28

H vol 17 ½ 750 str 55-62

K vol 18 ¼ 750 str 70-78

N vol 18 ¼ 750 str 80-89

U vol 18 ½ 750 str 90-100

Z14 vol 18 ½ 760 str 100-115

 

Meal

Z vol 23.5 410 str 19.5-20.5

F vol 21.5 400 str 27-28

H vol 21.5 390 str 37-39

K vol 19.5 380 str 40.5-43

N vol 19 380 str 44.5-47.5

 

Bean oil

Z vol 17 41.5 str 135-150

F vol 16.75 42 str 215-230

H vol 16.75 42 str 300-315

K vol 16.5 42.5 str 375-410

N vol 16.75 43 str 410-430

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

DEC         78-79              75.5-76.5

JAN         69-69.5          69.5-70

MCH       64.5-65          64.5-65

MAY       64-64.5          63.5-64

JLY           64.5-65          64.5-65

AUG        68.5-69         68-69

SEP          86-89.5         86-89

DEC 14    73-73.5         73.5-74

 

Crush players

 

FI sold 250 FZZ at 86-87

 

New Edge sold 80 May at 64

 

Rand sold 50 Dec at 77