News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Weekly US export inspections came out today at 10 am CDT from GIPSA
    • Wheat at 25.3 MB expecting 27-35 MB
    • Corn at 21.7 MB expecting 23-31 MB
    • Beans at 47.4 MB expecting 27-43 MB
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 88.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate
    • He said 5-7% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • He said less than 5% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • He said 15% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yield at 154.0 BPA unchanged from his previous estimate and vs. estimate 2 weeks ago of 152.0 BPA
  • Hearing Cordonnier said 30-35% of the US corn crop has been harvested
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yield at 41.0 BPA unchanged from his previous estimate and vs. estimate 2 weeks ago of 40.5 BPA
  • Hearing Cordonnier said 40-45% of the US bean crop has been planted
  • Market talk – US bean yield estimated at 42-43+ BPA
  • Market talk – US corn yield estimated at 160+ BPA
  • Heavy rains in US Plains have washed out some wheat acres , some farmers to replant – Reuters
  • Hearing Chinese bean import needs are covered for October and November, is 60-70% covered for December , and is 50% covered for January
  • Some talk of Argentina farmers switching to bean acres from corn acres if dryness in Argentina continues
  • IMEA estimated ‘13/14 Mato Grosso, Brazil bean crop at 25.7 MMT
  • Canada’s government is closely monitoring a dispute between the railroad workers’ union and Canadian National Railway Co CNR.TO and is urging both parties to continue talking, a spokeswoman for Labour Minister Kellie Leitch said on Tuesday. – Reuters
  • Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 14th Russia had harvested 84.2 MMT of grain on 38 MH (86% of total area) with an average yield of 2.22 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 71.1 MMT of grain on 37.9 MH with an average yield of 1.88 TPH
  • Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 14th Russia had planted winter grains on 10.5 MH (64.1% of total area) vs. 14.3 MH a year ago
  • Algeria Ag Min estimated Algeria’s 2013 grain crop at 4.92 MMT vs. 5.1 MMT a year ago and vs. 5.0 MMT average
  • Algeria Ag Min said annual domestic grain consumption is about 7.0 MMT
  • Nov beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1273 ½. Nov beans settled at 1267
  • Market talk of short covering in corn.
  • Weekly US crop progress report scheduled to come out today at 3 pm CDT. This report will not come out do to US government shutdown.
    • Based on a Reuters survey of 14 analysts the average estimate for bean harvest is 45% complete. The range of estimates were 35-72% complete a week ago the average estimate was 22% complete a year ago was 71% complete and the average is 58% complete
    • Based on a Reuters survey of 12 analysts the average estimate for corn harvest was 31% complete. The range of estimates were 25-40% complete a week ago the average estimate was 20% complete a year ago corn harvest was 79% complete and the average is 42% complete
  • Malaysia is back from holiday tomorrow
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Service come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Oct 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • If US government shutdown is resolved weekly API energy inventory report will come out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT . If not the report will not come out
  • DOE #s will not come out until Thursday due to US holiday on Monday. If US government is still shutdown DOE #s will NOT come out .
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 700 Nov bean 1340/1360 call spreads at a ½
    • Vision bought 1,000 March 1320 calls at 31 and sold 350 March futures at 1254
    • ADM bought 10,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 2-2 ¼ . My broker believes this is a new position , but that is just a guess. Coming in this morning open interest on the Dec 400 puts was 69,231 open.
    • SalStone a division of FC Stone sold 1,000 Dec corn 480/430 put spreads at 32 5/8 and sold 530 Dec corn futures at 442
    • Tenco sold 1,000 Sept corn 350p/550c strangles at 23
    • FI sold 1,000 Dec wheat 680/730 put spread at 33 5/8 and sold 360 Dec wheat futures at 688
    • ADM sold 350 May meal 390 puts at 26.00
    • Jefferies sold 200 Dec bean oil 40 puts at 50
    • ADM bought 400 Nov bean oil 41 calls at 45
    • RJO bought 400 March bean oil 41 puts sold 400 March bean oil 44 calls at 55 debit

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn bought 8K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 23 445 str 14-14 ¾

Z vol 23 ½ 445 str 26 ½-27 ½

H vol 21 ¾ 460 str 46 ½-47 ½

K vol 22 ½ 460 str 59-60 ½

N vol 23 ¼ 470 str 71-72

U vol 24 ¾ 470 str 84 ½-86

Z14 vol 23 ½ 480 str 93-94

 

Beans

X vol 17 ¼ 1270 str 29 ½-30

Z vol 19 ½ 1270 str 64 ½-65 ½

F vol 19 1270 str 85-86

H vol 19 1260 str 113-115

K vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 130-133

N vol 18 ¼ 1240 str 146-150

 

Wheat

X vol 19 690 str 18-19

Z vol 20 690 str 36-37

F vol 20 ¼ 700 str 50-52

H vol 21 700 str 69-71

K vol 21 ½ 700 str 86-88

N vol 21 ½ 690 str 97-101

 

KC Wheat

X vol 18 ½ 760 str 19-21

Z vol 19 ¾ 760 str 38-41

H vol 20 750 str 70-73

K vol 20 ½ 750 str 87-91

N vol 20 ¾ 730 str 97-101

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 750 str 30-40

H vol 18 ½ 760 str 60-70

K vol 19 760 str 76-85

N vol 19 770 str 89-99

U vol 19 ½ 770 str 104-114

Z vol 19 ½ 770 str 115-130

 

Meal

X vol 23.5 400 str 12-14

Z vol 24 400 str 24.5-26

F vol 22.75 400 str 31.5-33.5

H vol 22 390 str 39.5-42.5

K vol 20.5 390 str 44.5-47.5

N vol 20.5 380 str 48-52

 

Bean oil

X vol 17 40.5 str 85-100

Z vol 17 40.5 str 170-185

F vol 16.75 41 str 230-255

H vol 16.75 41.5 str 310-340

K vol 16.5 41.5str 370-400

N vol 16.5 42 str 430-470

 

Crush quotes

 

 

OPEN             CLIOSE

DEC            67-67.5          65-66

JAN            63.5-64          62.5-63.5

MCH          63.5-64          62.5-63

MAY          61.5-63          61.5-63

JLY              61.5-63          61.5-62.5

AUG          63-66.5           63-66.5

SEP            80-89.5           81-85

DEC 14      70.5-71           70-71

 

Crush player

 

ABN sold 40 July at 62.5

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg