News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Cargill 1Q earnings dropped 41% from a year ago to $571 million
  • Algeria bought 500K tons of optional origin milling wheat for Dec shipment. Talk is that they bought French wheat.
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 953.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 949.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 286.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 284.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.708 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.483 BB
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.160 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.112 BB
  • Lanworth said early corn yields in IL are at 178 BPA (near record highs)
  • Lanworth said early corn  yields in IN are at 174 BPA (near record highs)
  • Lanworth said KS, MN, OH, and WI corn yields are above expectations
  • Lanworth said NE,SD, MI, and IL bean yields are above expectations
  • Conab came out this morning with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates –
    • Bean production estimated at 87.6 – 89.7 MMT (record) vs. USDA estimate of 88.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 81.5 MMT
    • Bean area estimated at 28.663-29.356 MH (record)
    • Bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT unchanged from ‘12/13 estimate
    • Bean domestic consumption estimated at 40.7 MMT
    • Total corn crop estimated at 78.4 -79.6 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 72.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 79.6 MMT
    • Wheat crop estimated at 4.77 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.95 MMT
    • Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago
  • Coceral estimated EU 28 2013 corn crop at 65.3 MMT vs. 57.3 MMT in 2012
  • Coceral estimated Germany’s 2013 corn crop at 4.7 MMT vs. 5.4 MMT in 2012
  • Iraq bought 100,000 tons of US Uruguay and Argentine rice
  • Nov beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1285 ¾. Nov beans settled at 1287 ¾
  • Today was the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They have been rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. GS roll ends on Friday. Activity on the close
    • Pit = 471 spreads traded at 3 ¾
    • Electronic =  7,477 spreads traded at 3 ½ – 4 ¼
  • Other index funds are rolling long Dec meal positions into Jan. This roll ends on Friday. Activity on the close
    • Pit = 0
    • Electronic = 3,800 Dec Jan spreads traded at 4.40-4.90
  • Other index funds are rolling long Dec bean oil positions into Jan. This roll ends on Friday. Activity on the close
    • Pit = 600 Dec Jan traded at 31
    • Electronic = 3,200 spreads traded at 30-31
  • Open outcry option players
    • Mizho bought 1,500 Nov bean 1240 puts sold 1,500 Nov bean 1340 call combos at 2-2 ¼ debit and bought 450 Nov bean futures at 1286
    • New Edge bought 2,500 Dec 2014 corn 380/340/300 put butterflies at 3 1/8 debit (They bought 2,500 CZ14 380 puts sold 5,000 CZ14 340 puts , and bought 2,500 CZ14 300 puts paid 3 1/8  for it)
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 500 calls and sold 1,000 March corn 500 calls at 8 ½ credit
    • FC Stone bought 2,000 Sept corn 490/600 call spreads at 27 ½ and sold 600 Sept futures at 478 ½
    • ADM bought 1,000 week 2 corn 550 calls at 1 ¼
    • ABN bought 800 Dec wheat 730-760-790 call butterflies at 2 ½ debit (They bought 800 Dec 730 calls sold 1,600 Dec 760 calls and bought 800 Dec 790 calls paid 2 ½)
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March wheat 600 puts at 4
    • Bunge bought 500 Dec meal 400 puts at 9.75
    • Rosenthal sold 500 Dec meal 400 puts at 9.00
    • FC Stone sold 2,000 Dec meal 400/380 put spreads at 4.75 and sold 340 Dec meal futures at 414.00
    • Bunge bought 200 Dec bean oil 45.50 calls at 10
    • FI sold 300 March bean oil 45/50 call spreads at 45
  • China will auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow morning with their September palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey
    • Palm oil output estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. Aug of 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.55 MMT vs. Aug of 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks estimated at 1.91 MMT (6 month high) vs. August 1.67 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out tomorrow morning with their Malaysian Oct 1-10th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly US jobless claims will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report will not come out due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bought 4K
  • Beans sold 3K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 20 440 str 14-16

Z vol 22 440 str 27-28

H vol 22 450 str 48-49

K vol 22 ½ 460 str 60 ½-62 ½

N vol 23 ½ 470 str 72 ½-74 ½

U vol 25 480 str 88-90

Z14 vol 23 ½ 490 str 95 ½-97 ½

 

Beans

X vol 18 ¼ 1280 str 40-41

Z vol 19 1/8 1280 str 68-69

F vol 18 3/8 1280 str 86-88

H vol 18 ½ 1260 str 113-116

K vol 18 1240 str 130-132

N vol 17 ¾ 1240 str 145-148

 

Wheat

X vol 20 ¼ 690 str 23-25

Z vol 21 690 str 40-42

F vol 21 700 str 54-56

H vol 21 ½ 700 str 72-74

K vol 22 700 str 88-91

N vol 21 ¾ 700 str 101-103

 

KC wheat

X vol 19 760 str 23-25

Z vol 21 760 str 43-45

H vol 21 760 str 75-79

K vol 21 760 str 91-95

N vol 21 740 str 100-105

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 ½ 760 str 33-39

H vol 18 ½ 760 str 63-69

K vol 19 ¼ 770 str 79-85

N vol 19 ¼ 770 str 90-97

U vol 19 ½ 770 str 95-110

Z vol 19 ½ 780 str 100-125

 

Meal

X vol 25 410 str 16.5-18.5

Z vol 24.5 410 str 28-29

F vol 22.5 410 str 34.5-36.5

H vol 21.5 400 str 42-44

K vol 20.25 .390 str 46-49

N vol 19.5 390 str 50-54

 

Bean oil

X vol 17.5 4050 str 115-130

Z vol 17.5 4050 str 190-205

F vol 17 41 str 245-265

H vol 17 4150 str 325-350

K vol 16.5 4150 str 390-420

N vol 16.75 42 str 450-460

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN           CLOSE

OCT          90-1.00        90-1.00

DEC           66.5-67       65.5-66

JAN           64-64.5       61.5-63

MCH         63-63.5       63-64

MAY         62.5-64       62.5-64

JLY             62.5-63       62-63

AUG          65-66.5      64-66.5

DEC 14      69-71          70.5-71

 

Crush players

 

FI sold 60 March at 63.5

 

New Edge sold 190 Dec at 65.25

 

New Edge sold 70 March at 63.5

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg