News From The Floor-An afternoon Recap

News

  • 21 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of The Andersons Maumee OH
  • EIA July biodiesel report came out today
    • 480 million pounds of bean oil was consumed market was expecting over 500 million pounds and vs. 461 million in June
    • July biodiesel production totaled 128 million gallons vs. 113 million in June
  • South Korea Kocopia bought 55K optional origin corn for Jan shipment
  • South Korea MFG bought 120K tons of corn , 70K tons from South America for March shipment  and 50K tons of optional origin for Feb shipment
  • South Korea millers have their corn need covered through January
  • South Korea millers have bought 10 cargoes of corn for Feb shipment and are seeking 120K more tons for Feb
  • Taiwan BSPA bought 50K Brazilian beans for March shipment
  • Iraq canceled wheat tender for 50K optional origin.
  • TALK China bought Australian wheat for Jan –March shipment
  • Philippines bought 30K corn from Thailand this week
  • Venezuela bought 25-30K South American bean oil this week
  • Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K bean oil for Oct – Nov shipment
  • Bunge to restart crushing plant in eastern KS the first week of Oct . Plant has been idled since April
  • China NDRC announced 2014 corn import quotas at 7.2 MMT, wheat import quotas at 9.6 MMT , rice import quotas at 5.3 MMT , and cotton import quotas at 894,000 tons
  • Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimated 2014 Indonesia domestic consumption at 9.0 MMT up 5.9% from 2013, due to Indonesia policy to raise palm oil in diesel to 10% from 7.5%
  • Malaysia’s government also said 2014 domestic consumption will increase
  • South Korea KFA canceled tender for 60K optional origin corn
  • Japan bought 5,613 food wheat and 3K barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment
  • Syria bought 23K Ukrainian milling wheat
  • ADAS said Britain’s wheat planting about 30-40% complete vs. 20% average
  • Job Economy said Brazil’s center-south to import 1-1.5 billion liters of US ethanol between Dec – April
  • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report (from yesterday)
    • Corn planting is 4.6% complete vs. 2.8% a week ago vs. 9.6% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 14.6%
    • Estimated ‘13/14 corn planting area at 3.56 MH
    • Said that 22% of the wheat area is in fair to poor growing conditions
    • Estimated ‘13/14 wheat area at 3.9 MH unchanged from previous estimate
    • Sunflower planting is 21.1% compete vs. 18.9% a week ago and vs. 28.8% a year ago
    • Estimated Sunflower area at 1.7 MH unchanged from previous
  • CIARA- CEC said Argentina has sold 68-70% of their ‘12/13 bean crop vs. 85% a year ago and vs. five year average of 78%
  • CIARA-CEC said Argentina exported 6.2 MMT of beans between Jan – July vs. 4.4 MMT a year ago
  • CIARA-CEC Argentina crushed 19.7 MMT of beans between Jan-July vs. 20.8 MMT a year ago
  • Rains are in the forecast for Argentina
  • UAC estimated Ukraine’s winter grains are only 20-25% planted due to heavy rains
  • UAC estimated Ukraine’s winter wheat area at 2.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 2.0 MH
  • Ukraine Ag Min said as of today winter grain planted on 1.987 MH (including 1.8 MH of wheat) vs. 4.525 MH (4.1 MH of wheat) a year ago due to heavy rain.
  • More rain is in the forecast for Ukraine
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 3.45 MMT of wheat between July 1st – Sept 19th vs. 2.48 MMT a year ago and exported 649,300 tons of corn vs. 1.375 MMT a year ago
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 5.71 MMT of total grain between July 1st – Sept 19th vs. 5.176 MMT a year ago
  • Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 18.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.3 MMT and vs. 12.9 MMT in 2012
  • Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2013 grain exports at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT
  • Russia’s Ag Min said winter grains planted on 7.4 MH vs. 11.0 MH a year ago due to rains
  • Correction from my “News from the Grain Floor” email – I wrote China was off all next week, this is incorrect. China markets are opened Monday and then they will be closed Tuesday Oct 1st – Monday Oct 7th. Trading will resume on Tuesday Oct 8th
  • Today was the first day of the Rogers Roll. Rogers roll ends Tuesday . On the close
    • ABN sold 50 XF bean spreads at 1 ½
    • 3,007 XF beans spreads traded on the screen at 1 ½ -2
  • Today was position day for Oct meal and Oct bean oil – Monday is first notice day for V futures
    • Meal – As of this morning there were 0 meal receipts registered and there were 13,953 contracts open. Expecting 0 deliveries tonight
    • Bean oil – As of this morning there were 8,276 receipts registered and there were 10,773 contracts open. Expecting 500-1,500 deliveries tonight
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Monday is the end of the month and end of the quarter
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their Malaysia September palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • USDA quarterly stocks report and US wheat production report comes out on Monday at 11 am CDT (see below and or attachment for estimates)
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT . Expecting corn harvest to be 12-15% complete , expecting bean harvest to be 6-8% complete, one analyst said about 14% complete
  • Next week’s economic report calendar
    • Japan mfg PMI comes out on Monday
    • China’s HSBC mfg PMI comes out on Monday
    • China’s official mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • US Markit mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • German mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • Eurozone mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • France mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • Spain mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • Italy mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • UK mfg PMI comes out on Tuesday
    • Eurozone unemployment report comes out on Tuesday
    • German unemployment report comes out on Tuesday
    • ECB announcement on Wednesday
    • ECB president press conference on Wednesday
    • US unemployment comes out on Friday

 

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

Rosenthal bot 1500 H 490-530 call spreads/sold 1500 H 410 puts

Rosenthal bot 1000 Z 450 puts

ICAP bot 1500 Z 400 puts

ADM bot 1000 H 480 calls/sold 1000 H 460 puts

RJO bot 1500 H 500-470 put spreads/bot 270 CH

RJO bot 500 X 440 puts/460 call strangles

Man sold 1000 Z 440 puts

Bache bot 1125 Z 470 calls/sold 428 CZ

Macquarie sold 1100 H 450 puts/sold 396 CH

ABN bot 1500 H 550 calls

ADM sold 1000 Z 470 calls

 

Beans:

Macquarie bot 1000 X 1360-1400 call spreads

Mizuho bot 300 X 1320 calls/sold 600 X 1370 calls

GFI sold 450 X 1320 puts/sold 225 SX

ABN bot 400 X 1160 calls

 

 

Wheat:

Newedge bot 2000 H 520 puts/sold 2000 Z 500 puts

Tenco bot 700 Z 630 puts

Rosenthal bot 700 Z 700 calls

Rosenthal sold 500 Z 700 calls

ADM bot 500 H 720 calls

Bunge sold 400 Z 700 straddles

 

Meal:

FCS sold 850 Z 360 puts

ADM sold 400 Z 390 puts

ADM sold 200 Z 400 puts

ADM bot 250 Z 430 calls

Tenco sold 200 Z 430 calls

JPM bot 200 K 370-330 put spreads

JPM sold 200 Z 400 puts

Bunge bot 200 Z 400 calls

ABN sold 200 X 420 straddles

Newedge bot 200 Z 440 calls/sold 200 Z 390 puts

Rosenthal sold 200 X 415 puts

 

Oil:

JPM bot 300 X 44 calls

Bache sold 340 Z 43 puts

ADM sold 200 Z 44 calls

RJO sold 200 Z 43-42 put spreads

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans bought 4K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Estimates for Monday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and wheat production report- also see attached for Recap page

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat – (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.913 BB, range of estimates are 1.819 – 1.999 BB. USDA Sept 1, 2012 wheat stocks were 2.105 BB and June 1, 2013 wheat stocks were .718 BB
  • Corn – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .681 BB, range of estimates are .552-.750. USDA Sept 1st, 2012 corn stocks were .989 BB and June 1st, 2013 corn stocks were 2.764 BB.
  • Beans – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .124 BB, range of estimates are .106-.155 BB. USDA Sept 1, 2012 bean stocks were .169 BB and June 1, 2013 bean stocks were .435 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US wheat crop

  • All wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.108 BB, range of estimates are 2.016-2.137 BB. USDA August estimate was 2.114 BB and 2012 US all wheat crop was 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.541 BB, range of estimates are 1.510-1.550 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.542 BB and 2012 US all winter wheat crop was 1.645 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .788 BB, range of estimates are .770-.800 BB. USDA August estimate was .791 BB and 2012 US HRW wheat crop was 1.004 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .544 BB, range of estimates are .535-.561 BB. USDA August estimate was .542 BB and 2012 soft red winter wheat crop was .420 BB
  • White winter wheat crop – (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .208 BB, range of estimate are .205-.210 BB. USDA August estimate was .209 BB and 2012 white winter wheat crop was .222 BB
  • Other spring wheat – (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate .512 BB, range of estimates are .487-.530 BB. USDA August estimate was .511 BB and 2012 other spring wheat crop was .542 BB.
  • Durum wheat – ( 15 analysts surveyed) average estimate .060 BB, range of estimates are .050-.063 BB. USDA August estimate was .060 BB and 2012 durum wheat crop was .082 BB

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 22 ¾ 450 str 22 ½-24

Z vol 23 450 str 32 ½-33

H vol 22 460 str 52 ½-53 ½

K vol 22 ½ 470 str 62 ½-64

N vol 22 ¾ 480 str 74-75

U vol 24 ¼ 490 str 88 ½-90

Z14 vol 22 ¾ 490 str 94-96

 

Beans

X vol 21 1320 str 63-63 ½

F vol 19 ½ 1320 str 102 ½-103 ½

H vol 19 ½ 1300 str 127 ½-129

K vol 19 1280 str 142-145

N vol 18 ¼ 1260 str 155-159

 

Wheat

X vol 25 ½ 680 str 37-40

Z vol 25 680 str 51-53

F vol 24 18/4 690 str 64-67

H vol 24 690 str 82-85

K vol 23 ½ 690 str 95-99

N vol 23 ¼ 680 str 104-109

 

KC wheat

X vol 22 ½ 730 str 36-39

Z vol 22 ½ 730 str 52-54

H vol 21 ¾ 730 str 80-84

K vol 21 ½ 730 str 95-100

N vol 21 ½ 710 str 103-108

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 20 ¼ 730 str 44-50

H vol 19 ¾ 740 str 70-77

K vol 20 740 str 83-90

N vol 20 750 str 93-103

 

Meal

X vol 27.5 420 str 25-27

Z vol 26 420 str 33-34.5

F vol 23.5 420 str 38-40

H vol 22.5 410 str 45.5-47

K vol 20.25 390 str 47-49

N vol 19.5 390 str 50-52

 

Bean oil

X vol 18 42 str 150-170

Z vol 17.25 42 str 205-225

F vol 17 42 str 260-285

H vol 17 42.5 str 335-360

K vol 16.75 43 str 395-425

N vol 16.75 43 str 450-490

 

Crush quotes

Open                     Close

Oct         58.5-59                 60-60.5

Dec        59.75-59               60-60.5

Jan         55.75-57               56.5-57.5

Mch       60.5-61.5              60.5-61.5

May       62-62.75               62.5-63

Jly           62-63                     63-63.5

Aug        64.5-66                 65-65.5

Dec4      69-69.5                 69-69.5

 

Crush players

New Edge sold 1,500 Dec at 59.5-59.75

 

New Edge bought 500 March at 60.75-61

 

ADM bought 400 March/Jan/March at 82-84

 

Options – EDF Mann sold 60 Dec 60 puts at 3.5-4

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg