News from the floor

News

·         See below for estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report.

·         Weekly US export inspection report came out today at 10 am CDT

o   Wheat 24.37 MB expecting 13-18 MB

o   Corn 6.365 MB expecting 7-12 MB

o   Beans 3.059 MB expecting 1-5 MB

·         Midday weather forecast added rain to the Midwest

·         Iran bought 60K Ukraine feed wheat for June shipment

·         Qatar bought 40K Black Sea origin wheat for Aug/Sept shipment

·         Iraq State Grain Board said Iraq bought 250K tons of Russian wheat – this was already in the market.

·         Taiwan BSPA seeks 120K tons of US or South American soybeans for August September shipment

·         Taiwan Sugar Corp seeks 12K US beans and 23K US corn for August shipment

·         South Korea MFG seeks 140K US , South America, South Africa, and or eastern Europe corn for October shipment

·         Iraq seeks 50K wheat from US, Canada, Australia, Black Sea region, and or Germany

·         Iraq seeks 15K sunflower oil any origin not including China and the Ukraine

·         Tunisia seeks 75K milling wheat and 75K feed barley optional origin for July /Aug shipment  

·         Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s June 1-June 10 palm oil exports at 400,075 tons up 6.1% from May 1-10th

·         Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June 1- June 10th palm oil exports at 419,035 tons up 10.3% from May 1-10th

·         CWG forecasts normal to above normal yields for corn and beans

·         CWG said US corn could lose as much as 3.0 MA

·         Brazil’s Ag Min said China has approved new GMO bean varieties for import.

·         Argentine farm groups to announce strike tomorrow and may strike for up to 10 days

·         Russia sold 77,479 tons of intervention grain making the total since the program started on Oct 23rd at 3,501,887 tons

·         Ukraine Ag Min expects to export 2.0 MMT of grain to Iran annually

·         Ukraine Ag Min expects to export 1.0-1.5 MMT of grain to Syria annually

·         Ukraine Ag Min said there will be no reason to place limits on wheat exports in the first half of the ‘13/14 season

·         Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 25-27 MMT vs. 23.0 MMT a year ago

·         Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 9.0 MMT vs. 7.0 MMT a year ago

·         Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 corn exports at 14.0 MMT  

·         Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 wheat crop at 20.0 MMT vs. 15.8 MMT in 2012

·         Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 27-28 MMT vs. 20.9 MMT a year ago

·         River Rhine in south Germany reopened today.

·         FAO expects Syria’s 2013 wheat crop to fall 37% below average

·         Alberta, Canada grain planting is 97% complete as of Friday June 7th

·         Dec corn closed below the 100 day moving average of 554 ¼ . Dec corn settled at 546

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT

·         Today was the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll.

·         Today was the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll . Roll ends Thursday . In the open outcry market

o   Wheat 300 July Sept spreads were sold at 9 ¼ -9 ½

o   Corn 2,000 July Sept spreads were sold mostly at 72 ½ on the modify 200 July Sept spreads were sold at 74 ½

o   Beans 400 July Nov spreads were sold at 190 ¾ -193

o   Meal 700 July Dec spreads were sold at 53.60-56.00 – Mizuho bought 600 July /Aug meal spreads at 21.50-26.60 in the last minute of trade

o   Bean oil 2,000 July/Dec spreads were sold at 60-58

·         Open outcry option players

o   ABN bought 800 Nov bean 1260 puts at 51 ½ -52

o   Bunge bought 1,000 Nov bean 1300/1200 put spreads at 36-37

o   Tenco sold 1,000 short dated July corn 550 calls at 10 ½-11

o   Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec corn 520 straddles and sold 1,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 104 ½-105 ¼

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 July corn 700 calls at 1 7/8

o   ADM sold 1,000 July corn 630 calls at 24 ½ -25 ¾

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 July corn 700 calls at 1 3/8

o   JP Morgan sold 1,000 Sept wheat 650 puts at 15 ½ and sold 290 Sept futures at 690

o   New Edge bought 700 Dec wheat 650 puts and sold 1,400 Dec wheat 830 calls at 2 credit

o   ADM bought 550 July meal 420 calls and sold 550 August meal 400 calls at 3.50 credit

o   New Edge bought 400 Sept bean oil 56 calls at 12

 

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 2K

·         Corn sold 10K

·         Beans sold 7K

·         Meal sold 3K

·         Bean oil sold 4K

 

Estimates For Wednesday USDA supply and demand, crop production report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT – From Dow Jones

 

2013 US Wheat Production Estimates

·         All wheat production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.026 BB, range of estimates are 1.872-2.082 BB, and 2012 production was 2.269 BB

·         All winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.457 BB, range of estimates are 1.401-1.503 BB, and 2012 production was 1.645 BB

·         Hard red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .743 BB, range of estimates are .676-.789 BB, and 2012 production was 1.004 BB

·         Soft red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .506 BB, range of estimates are .492-.517 BB, and 2012 production was .420 BB

·         White winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .208 BB, range of estimates are .200-.217 BB, and 2012 production was .222 BB

 

‘12/13 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .748 BB, range of estimates are .700-.789 BB , May USDA estimate was .759 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .989 BB

·         Beans (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .125 BB, range of estimates are .119-.130 BB, May USDA estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .169 BB

·         Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate .734 BB, range of estimates are .725-.751 BB , May USDA estimate was .731 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .743 BB

 

‘13/14 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.758 BB, range of estimates are 1.274-1.994 BB, and May USDA estimate was 2.004 BB

·         Beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .273 BB, range of estimates are .185-.339 , and May USDA estimate was .265 BB

·         Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .634 BB, range of estimates .501-.686 BB, and May USDA estimate was .670 BB

 

‘12/13 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.7 MMT , range of estimates are 124.5-128.2 MMT , May USDA estimate was 125.4 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 132.2 MMT

·         Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.0 MMT, range of estimates are 60.5-63.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 62.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 54.7 MMT

·         Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 180.4 MMT , range of estimates 179.8-181.6 MMT , May USDA estimate was 180.2 MMT , and ‘11/12 carryout was 199.5 MMT

 

‘13/14 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 150.5 MMT, range of estimates 143.9-155.2 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 154.6 MMT

·         Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 74.2 MMT, range of estimates are 68.2-76.0 MMT , and May USDA estimate was 75.0 MMT

·         Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.5 MMT, range of estimates are 182.1-187.5 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 186.4 MMT

 

‘12/13 Argentina and Brazil Corn and Bean Production Estimates

·         Argentina’s corn production (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.8 MMT, range of estimates 25.0-26.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 26.5 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT

·         Argentina’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 51.5 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-54.0, May USDA estimate was 51.0 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT

·         Brazil’s corn production (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.7 MMT, range of estimates are 73.0-78.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 76.0 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT

·         Brazil’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.3 MMT, range of estimates are 81.5-85.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

 

 

Closing vols and ATM Straddles

 

Corn

N vol 26 650 str 24 ½-25 ½

Q vol 32 ½ 580 str 53 ½-55

U vol 31 ¾ 580 str 66 ½-67 ½

Z vol 28 ¼ 550 str 82 ½ -83 ½

H vol 26 ¼ 560 str 96 ½-98 ½

 

Beans

N vol 21 ¾ 1510 str 47-49

Q vol 24 1440 str 98 ½-99 ½

U vol 24 ¼ 1360 str 118-120

X vol 23 1320 str 149-150

F vol 2-0 ¾ 1320 str 161-164

H vol 19 ½ 1320 str 168-172

 

Wheat

N vol 22 ½ 690 str 21-23

Q vol 26 ¼ 700 str 51-53

U vol 26 700 str 65-67

Z vol 25 ¼ 710 str 95-96

H vol 23 ½ 730 str 113-117

K vol 23 740 str 127-130

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 19 820 str 18-23

U vol 23 ½ 800 str 59-66

Z vol 22 ½ 810 str 88-97

H vol 22 820 str 100-115

 

KC Wheat

N vol 21 730 str 21-25

U vol 24 730 str 61-67

Z vol 23 750 str 90-99

H vol 22 760 str 105-115

 

Meal

N vol 30 450 str 19-20

Q vol 29 420 str 34-35.5

U vol 28.5 410 str 40-42

V vol 26.25 390 str 45-46

Z vol 25.5 390 str 53-55

F vol 24 390 str 54-57

 

Bean oil

N vol 17.25 48 str 105-125

Q vol 17.75 48 str 230-250

U vol 17.75 48 str 295-320

V vol 17.75 47.5 str 340-375

Z vol 17.75 47.50 str 430-450

F vol 17.25 47.50 str 460-500

 

Crush Quotes

 

               OPEN             CLOSE

JLY          4.5-6               3-4

AUG     28-30               24-26

ASEP     68-70               69-70

OCT       73-75               73-74.5

DEC        69-69.5           69-69.5

JAN        64.5-65.5        63-65.5

MCH      65-66               65-66

MAY      65-66                65-66

 

No crush players in the open outcry market today

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg