News From The Floor

Good morning.

 

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn’t exist..
‘Verbal’ Kint

 

USDA announced 115K new crop US beans sold to China

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 5 at 1387 ¼
  • CN down 1 ¾ at 638 ¼
  • WN down 1 at 708
  • SMN up 2.90 at 406.20
  • BON unchanged at 4914
  • RRN down .5 at 1539

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,762
  • CN 5,145
  • WN 4,755
  • SMN 2,853
  • BON 6,964
  • RRN 11

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • Meal 2-3 higher
  • Bean oil mixed
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude, gold, silver higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up .744%

Hang Seng up .856%

Shanghai Index up .483%

 

Most world stock markets are higher

 

China’s April exports  +14.7% on year expecting +8.6%

 

China’s April imports +16.8% expecting +11.6%

 

China’s April trade surplus at $18.16 B expecting $15.55 B surplus.

 

France on public holiday today and tomorrow.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 680K expecting a build of 1.9 MB
  • Gas a draw of 1.82 MB expecting a draw of 400K
  • Distillates a build of 1.1 MB expecting a build of 500K

 

Palm oil up 30. Chinese grain markets higher.

 

Oil World expects palm oil exports to hit record soon due to insufficient supplies of other veg oils

 

China bought 1 cargo of South American beans for Sept shipment this week

 

China’s General Administration of Customs

  • China’s April grain and meal imports at 1.15 MMT vs. 790,000 tons in March
  • China’s Jan- March grain and meal imports at 3.97 MMT vs. 4.85 MMT a year ago
  • China’s April edible oil imports at 770K tons vs. 700K in March and up 51% from a year ago
  • China’s Jan – April edible oil imports at 2.64 MMT vs. 2.27 MMT a year ago
  • China’s April bean imports at 3.98 MMT vs. 3.84 MMT in March and vs. 4.88 MMT a year ago
  • China’s Jan – April bean imports at 15.47 MMT vs. 18.15 MMT a year ago
  • China’s April corn exports at 2,591 tons vs. 5,624 tons in March and vs. 18K a year ago
  • China’s Jan- April corn exports at 14,031 tons vs. 226,150 tons a year ago

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.65 MMT (highest on year)

 

Chinese industry analysts said China’s corn stocks at northern ports at 3.66 MMT vs. 2.38 MMT a year ago

 

Analysts said Argentina , Brazil , and Paraguay shipped 6.4 MMT of beans to China in April

 

Barclays expect China’s bean imports to pick up in the coming months.

 

Wilmar said China’s Bird Flu will affect meal consumption in the short term , but doesn’t see long term effect

 

Analysts expect China’s May – July bean imports to hit record, June estimated at 6.0 MMT July estimated at 7.0 MMT . Record was made in June 2010 or 6.2 MMT

 

China’s Cereals and Oils Business Nets said China’s ‘12/13  2nd half palm oil imports may fall to 2.39 MMT vs. 3.56 MMT in the 1st half of ‘12/13 season

 

TALK continues of South American corn and beans being shipped into the US

 

South Korea KFA bought 69K tons of South American corn for July-August shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 61K tons of South American corn for July-August shipment

 

Japan seeks 200K feed barley and 120K feed wheat via SBS tender for August shipment

 

Qatar seeks 6K feed barley optional origin

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India expects India’s summer soybean planting area to increase by 8-10% this year due to better prices . In 2012 India’s bean planting area was 10.7 MH

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India expects to see better bean yields with good monsoon.

 

UkrAgroConsult Ukraine Estimates

  • 2013 grain crop at 52.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 52.38 MMT
  • 2013 wheat crop at 20.16 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.23 MMT
  • 2013 barley crop at 7.65 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.75 MMT
  • 2013 corn crop at 21.8 MMT unchanged from previous
  • 2013 sunflower output estimated at 9.86 MMT vs. 8.57 MMT a year ago
  • 2013 rapeseed output estimated at 2.01 MMT vs. 1.203 MMT a year ago
  • 2013 bean crop estimated at 2.89 MMTG vs. 2.41 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Government Source estimated 2013 barley planted area at 2.2 MH vs. 2.73 MH a year ago

 

Ukraine Government Source estimated 2013 corn planted area at 4.73 MH vs. 4.46 MH a year ago

 

Russia’s customs data showed Russia exported 424,700 tons of wheat in the 1st quarter of 2013 vs. 3.196 MMT a year ago

 

Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade said China and African countries have washed out 280K tons of rice

 

Vietnam May rice shipments estimated at 2.08 MMT

 

FAO estimated 2013 Asian rice crop at 677.5 MMT up 15.0 MMT a year ago

 

Midwest weather – Today scattered showers and thunderstorms in the west dry in the east. Tomorrow scattered showers and thunderstorms moving west to east. Dry Friday , light showers Saturday , dry Sunday. Cool temps over weekend

 

Russia’s weather service said satisfactory southern Russian weather seen for May

 

Ukraine is dry. Rain is needed

 

374 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 373 from the Andersons
  • 1 CIRM Chicago IL

 

14 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors , Volga South Dakota

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 40 with the date at 5/02/13
    • ADM house stopped 20
    • Term stopped 12
  • Rice 89 with the date current
  • Wheat 348 with the date current
    • Term issued 48
    • Bunge house stopped 2
    • ABN customer issued 4 , stopped 105

 

Moving averages

  • SN 50 day 1395 ¾
  • WN 50 day 709 ¾
  • WZ 50 day 731
  • BON 50 day 4974
  • SMN 50 408.40

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 452,855 open, down 5,134
  • Total corn 1,143,658 open, up 321
  • SN 283,449 open, down 1,483
  • Total beans 536,634 open, down 146
  • SMN 139,343 open, down 146
  • Total meal 256,781 open, up 1,129
  • BON 188,712 open, down 1,991
  • Total bean oil 344,218 open, up 38
  • WN 230,708 open, down 1,402
  • Total wheat 413,383 open, up 1,810

 

Estimates For Friday’s USDA report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT (Dow Jones).

 

Estimates for 2013 US Wheat production

  • All wheat (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.059 BB, range of estimates are 1.832-2.165 BB vs. 2012 output of 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.477 BB, range of estimates are 1.359 – 1.555 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.645 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .765 BB, range of estimates are .676-.834 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.004 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .496 BB, range of estimates are .473-.524 BB vs. 2012 output of .420 BB
  • White winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .204-.226 vs. 2012 output of .222 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US Grain and Soybean Carryout

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .754 BB, range of estimates are .684-.802 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .757 BB and vs. ‘11/12 carryout of .989 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .124 BB, range of estimates are .107-.130 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .125 BB and vs. ’11/12 carryout of .169 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .681-.747 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .731 BB and vs. ’11/12 carry out of .743 BB

 

Estimates for ’13/14 US Grain and Soybean Carryout (first estimates from the USDA on ’13/14 carryout)

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.973 BB and range of estimates are 1.387 – 2.427 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .239 BB and range of estimates are .147 – .347 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .627 BB and range of estimates are .486 – .726 BB

 

Estimates for ’12/13 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 181.5 MMT, range of estimates are 178.3-183.2 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 182.260 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 199.4 MMT
  • Corn (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.8 MMT, range of estimates are 123.8-132.1 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 125.290 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 131.9 MMT
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.3 MMT, range of estimates are 61.1-63.0 vs. USDA April estimate of 62.63 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 55.1 MMT

 

Estimates for ’13/14 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 186.4 MMT, range of estimates are 178.1-195.8 MMT
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.63 MMT, range of estimates are 135.4-165.6 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.5 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-83.0 MMT

 

Estimates for ’12/13 Argentina and Brazil Bean and Corn Crops

  • Argentine bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.9MMT, range of estimates are 48.5-53.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 51.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 40.1 MMT
  • Argentine corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.4 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0-26.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 26.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 21.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 82.0-83.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 83.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 66.5 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.2 MMT, range of estimates are 73.5-77.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 74.0 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 73.0 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 475K
    • Distillates a build of 500K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Hearing Informa will come out today or Thursday with 2013 US acreage estimates. Informa comes out at 1030 am CDT. Previous acreage estimates were
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA
  • Public holiday in France today and tomorrow
  • Chinese economic data comes out on tomorrow. China’s April CPI expected at +2.2-+2.3% vs. +2.1% in March
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out tomorrow morning. Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • G8 meets on Friday in the UK
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out with their April data report on Friday . Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts
    • Palm oil stocks 2.04 MMT vs. 2.17 MMT in March
    • Palm oil exports 1.40 M vs. 1.54 M in March
    • Palm oil output 1.39 MMT vs. 1.33 M in March
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT .
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th
  • May futures expire at noon CDT on May 14th
  • NOPA April crush report comes out May 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg