News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I apologize that there were no information emails from me yesterday. I got into a car accident on the way to work. I am OK. The deer I swerved from hitting is OK. The car may be totaled. Again my apologies

 

I also apologize for sending morning wire late- Thanks for your patience –Kate

 

Nikkei up .640%

Hang Seng up .043%

Shanghai Index up .314%

 

Palm oil down 36. Chinese grain markets higher except oils were lower

 

Talk China is eyeing SRW US wheat

 

Taiwan BSPA seeks 60K US or Brazil beans for October shipment

 

USDA announced yesterday 120K new crop corn to unknown yesterday- no announcements today

 

Malaysia keeps August CPO export tax unchanged at 4.5%

 

American and European models are in disagreement European hotter and drier and the American is cooler has rain.

 

Chinese Industry Analysts – Crush Breakdown

  • For the week of July 6-12 total nationwide crush volume equaled 1,240,800 down 13.25% from a week ago
  • For the week of July 6-12 total nationwide crush capacity utilization at 48.26% down 7.37% from a week ago
  • October 2012-July 12 2013 total crush volume is at 46,721,800 tons up 1.47% from a week ago
  • Jan 1 2013 –July 12 2012 total crush volume nationwide is at 31,159,220 tons up 4.11% from a year ago
  • As of July 12 total imported bean stocks at 5.3914 MMT up 95,400 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 7.387 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.6 MMT

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India. India’s June import

  • Edible oils 911,091 tons up 18% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 649,772 tons up 28% from a year ago
  • CPO 353,542 tons down 17.4% from a year ago
  • RBD olein at 296,230 more than double than a year ago
  • Bean oil 138,849 tons down .7% from a year ago
  • Sunflower oil up 16% from a year ago

 

NOPA June Crush Report from yesterday

  • Crush average at 119.051 MB vs.  estimate 117.0 MB (from Reuters) and 115.4 MB (from Dow Jones) the range from Reuters is 107.5-126.5 MB. In May crush was 122.631 MB and in June 2012 crush was 134.156
  • Bean oil stocks at 2.298 B vs. average estimate from Reuters is 2.345 B pounds and the average estimate from Dow Jones is 2.343 B the range of estimates are 2.25-2.469 B In May bean oil stocks were 2.469 billion pounds. In June 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.306 B
  • Meal exports at 415,331 vs.  May meal exports were 425,742 tons

 

 

Weekly US export inspections from yesterday

  • Wheat 44.426 MB expecting 22-29
  • Corn 16.28 MB expecting 6-12
  • Beans 3.670 MB expecting 2-5

 

Crop progress from yesterday

  • Corn condition 66% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 31% a year ago . Market was expecting steady conditions
  • Corn silking 16% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 35% 5 year average
  • Soybean condition 65% down 2% from a week ago and vs. 34% a year ago
  • Soybean blooming 26% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 40% 5 year average
  • Spring wheat condition 70% vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 65% a year ago
  • Spring wheat headed 71% vs. 45% a week ago and vs. 73% 5 year average
  • Winter wheat harvested 67% vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 71% 5 year average

 

Open outcry options players from yesterday

 

Corn:

Tenco bot 1000 U/Z 25 cents cso puts

FI sold 2500 short dated U 500 puts

FI sold 1000 U 525 puts

Man bot 1000 Z 600 calls/sold 2000 Z 640 calls

Tenco bot 500 U 590 puts

ADM sold 500 U/Z 40 cents cso calls

ABN sold 500 U/Z 30 cents cso puts

Mizuho bot 1200 Z 500-480 put spreads

 

Beans:

Mizuho bot 500 X 1300 calls/sold 1000 X 1400 calls

Rosenthal bot 700 X 1300 calls

Rand bot 1000 X 1200 puts/sold 1000 X 1260 calls

Rand sold 1000 V 1260 calls

Rand bot 500 Q 1500 calls

Rosenthal sold 1000 U 1400 calls

Bunge sold 500 Q 1480 calls

New Edge bot 500 Q 1500 calls

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 1000 U 650 puts/sold 1000 Z 650 puts

Man bot 1000 U 700 calls

 

Meal:

Macquarie bot 400 Z 340-320 put spreads

Cunningham bot 200 Q 480 calls

 

Oil:

New edge sold 500 Q 47-46 put spreads

New edge bot 300 V 53 calls

New edge bot 300 V 46 calls/sold 300 Z 49 calls/sold 300 Z 42 puts

Bunge bot 400 U 43 puts

Bunge bot 400 U 44 puts

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • BOZ 172,859 open, up 4,902
  • Total bean oil 344,594 open, up 5,320
  • CZ 540,232 open, down 1,966
  • Total corn 1,115,049 open, up 335
  • SX 324,399 open, down 827
  • Total beans 519,283 open, down 3,675
  • SMZ 153,634 open, up 136
  • Total meal 291,620 open, down 364
  • WU 196,470 open, up 1,816
  • Total wheat 404,838 open up 3,732

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.3 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.95 MB
    • Distillates a build of 650K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg