KNIGHT PM GRAIN COMMENTS 6.11.13

KNIGHT PM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

DATE 6.11.13

 

     The soybean market led the way this morning as bull spreading led nearby prices higher.  Meal and corn spreads also gained on firmer US cash markets.  Tight old crop supplies and firm basis levels continue to impact the trade.    Tomorrow the early trade will be dependent on the government report out at 11:00 CST.  

Today wires report funds bot 8K corn, 6K beans, 2K wheat, 4K meal and sold 2K soyoil.  Reuters survey sees corn acreage down 1.5 million acres and beans up 0.7 million acres.   Reuters average for US corn acreage 95.825 MA, yield 157.367 bpa and production 13.821 billion bushels.  Reuters average for US soybean acreage 77.788 million acres, yield 43.971 bpa and production 3.379 billion bushels.  Also attached today is the Dow Jones survey for US wheat production and US and World carryout.

Yesterday Goldman Sachs advised clients to exit short July crush positions put on earlier.                                                        

      Oil World said the 2013-14 global soybean crop will increase by 18% on the year to 284.0 MMT with the bigger US, Brazilian and Argentine harvests expected.  2013-14 US bean output forecast 92 MMT. Brazil  ’13-14 bean crop 84.0 MMT vs 81.5 MMT in 2013 and sees plantings expanding for the 2014 crop by 0.9 million hectares to 28.6 MHa, and sees Argentina harvesting 52.3 MMT in early 2014.  

 

     Russia’s Agriculture minister lowered its 2013 wheat and grain crop forecasts.  The 2013 wheat forecast range 50-54 million metric tons, and trimmed the grain crop forecast to 93 MMT, below  the deputy minister’s forecast last week of 54-55 MMT for wheat and 95 MMT for the grain crop.

     Other grain news Japan announce a tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat, excluding wheat from Oregon, and 200,000 MT of feed barley with shipment for arrival by Nov 30.  Jordan bought 50,000 MT of barley, for Oct shipment, origin unknown.

Egypt cancelled a tender for 30,000 MT of sunflower oil. – Deborah Egan-Bolton

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES CLOSE

 

CORN

BEANS

MEAL

OIL

CH WHT

KC WHT

MP WHT

JULY

$659 ½

$1504 ½

$463.40

$0.4815

$696 ¾

$730

$815 ¾

   Change

+9 1/2

+28 3/4

+15.10

+0.0008

+7

+5 3/4

+4 1/4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DECEMBER (Nov)

$550 ¾

$1327

$398

$0.4748

$719 ½

$754

$806 ½

   Change

+4 3/4

+8

+4.50

0.0000

 +5 3/4

+2 3/4

+1/4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JULY-DEC

(   1.08   )

(  213 ½)

( 64.80 )

(  0.0090 )

22 ½

 24

(8 ¾)

   Change

+4

+20 3/4

+10

+.0031

+1 1/2

+1/4

+ 3 ½

The July-Dec spread noted in parenthesis is inverted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 6.10.13

Tues 6.11                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.12                     11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

                                    11:00 am         USDA June Supply/Demand Report

Thurs 6.13                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.14                       7:30 am           NOPA Crush

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.17.13

Mon 6.17                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 6.18                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.19                     11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

Thurs 6.20                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.21                                               Last Trading Day July Grain Options

                                    2:00 pm           Cattle on Feed Report

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week of 6.24.13

Mon 6.24                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 6.25                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.26                     11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

                                    11:00 am         USDA June Supply/Demand Report

Thurs 6.27                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.28                                               First Notice Day July Grain Futures Expiration

                                    11:00 am         Quarterly Grain Stocks

                                    11:00 am         Planted Acreage

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 7.01.13

Mon 7.01                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 7.02                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 7.03                     11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

Thurs 7.04                                          INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY

Fri 7.05                       7:30 am           Export Sales

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Deborah Egan-Bolton, Associate