KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS TUESDAY 4.23.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Tuesday 4.23.13

 

     Grain futures are weaker again today as old crop prices test range lows and new crop prices test recent new lows – as CZ and SX futures have given back most all their recent gains.

     Although next week’s warmer US weather forecast is “iffier” than yesterday, prices are still being pressured by ideas of improving weather and continued competition from South America.  Traders are looking beyond this week’s generally poor weather.  For example, Minneapolis received 3+ inches of snow last night and will be 60 degrees this weekend.  If next week’s warmer weather pans out, some areas will be able to make good planting progress, but other areas will be dealing with mud or flood for a number of weeks.  All in all – weather forecasts could be bullish or bearish on any particular day depending on what is the focus.

     As expected, corn planting is quite slow at 4% complete versus an average of 16%.  Winter wheat progress is also quite slow with just 8% headed versus an average of 19%.  HRW quality continued to erode with its rating at 77% of normal – down 2%, while SRW maintained a better than average rating of 105%.

     May-July futures spreads continue to firm on tight US supplies.  First Notice Day for May deliveries is next Tuesday and those with May positions have been liquidating rapidly.

     Note below that China bought another chunk of new crop US beans. – Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

CK

SK

SMK

BOK

WK

KWK

MWK

Today’s Pause

$6.42

$14.20

$413

$0.4836

$6.95

$7.36

$8.17

Change

-4

+2

+3

-0.0026

-7

-4

-2

 

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.20

$13.63

$399

$0.4828

$6.94

$7.38

$7.96

Change

-4

-2

+1

-0.0031

-8

-5

-7

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES  

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  MAY 13

-0.5%

-0.5%

+0.7%

-0.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

-0.3%

  JULY 13

-0.6%

-0.6%

+0.3%

-0.6%

-1.2%

-0.6%

-0.9%

  DEC 13

-1.1%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-1.2%

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.4%

-1.1%

-1.4%

-0.1%

-2.3%

           

2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

Chi Wht

KC

Mpls

Index

156%

146%

137%

84%

114%

116%

125%

  Year Low

134%

113%

91%

82%

93%

95%

111%

  Year High

205%

185%

184%

100%

155%

150%

158%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

Index

100%

108%

169%

190%

233%

162%

199%

  Year Low

90%

103%

115%

162%

233%

157%

199%

  Year High

101%

110%

171%

239%

296%

205%

324%

 

 

MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES  First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13

C

S

SM

BO

W

KW

MW

K-N Spread

(22 3/4)

(56 3/4)

(13.7)

(0.0009)

(3/4)

1 3/4

(15)

% Full Carry

(163%)

(310%)

(207%)

(20%)

(5%)

11%

(80%)

Open Interest

184,650

104,801

34,438

46,210

52,509

26,574*

6151*

Change

-5,841

-5,881

-4,464

-3,397

-6,776

-2,495

-874

Delivery Stocks

1.8

1.3

47.9

70.1

21.1

Registrations

0

0

0

12,202

1,153

*KC and Mpls May Open Interest not yet updated

Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts

Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday

Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 4.22.13

Tues 4.23                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 4.24                    7:30 am           Statistics Canada Planting Intentions

                                    9:30 am           EIA Energy Stocks

Thurs 4.25                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 4.26                                                May Grain Options Expiration

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 4.29.13

Mon 4.29                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 4.30                                            First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries                

                                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

FOMC Meeting

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 5.01                    9:30 am           EIA Energy Stocks

FOMC Meeting

Thurs 5.02                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 5.03                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 5.06.13

Fri 5.10                       11:00 am         USDA May Supply/Demand and Production reports

 

 

HEADLINES

 

04/23 08:02a CST  DJ USDA Says 392,000 Tons of Soybeans Sold to China in 2013-14

 

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound