KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS TUESDAY 4.16.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Tuesday 4.16.13

 

     Grain futures are recovering some of yesterday’s losses.  The bean complex is bouncing off yesterday’s lows, while corn and wheat are continuing to consolidate those lows.  US cash prices are quite tight, while the South American harvest continues to progress and beans and corn to the world market more cheaply than US prices.  Additional US Midwestern storms continue to improve soil moisture conditions but delay spring planting.  US winter wheat continues to be rated at much lower than normal levels at 84% of normal as better than normal SRW ratings (105% of normal) are more than offset by much lower than normal HRW ratings (79% of normal).  US corn planting is behind it’s normal pace at 2% planted versus 7% normal.  Temps in the EU are warming up and will support winter wheat progress as well as spring planting.

     There are a variety of influences on grain futures prices.  This uncertainty leads to very choppy trading activity.  May-July futures spreads continue to tighten as shorts cover positions – with the SK-SN quite dramatic. – Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

CK

SK

SMK

BOK

WK

KWK

MWK

Today’s Pause

$6.49

$14.08

$398

$0.4858

$6.96

$7.35

$8.04

Change

+2

+13

+4.6

+0.40

+2

+3

+6

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES   (8:30 am Central)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  MAY 13

+0.3%

+0.9%

+1.2%

+0.8%

+0.3%

+0.3%

+0.7%

  JULY 13

+0.1%

+0.7%

+1.0%

+0.8%

+0.3%

+0.4%

+0.6%

  DEC 13

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.3%

+0.9%

+0.2%

+0.3%

+0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.4%

-0.1%

+0.8%

-0.2%

na

+2.6%

+1.5%

           

2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

Chi Wht

KC

Mpls

Index

157%

145%

132%

84%

114%

116%

123%

  Year Low

134%

113%

91%

82%

93%

95%

111%

  Year High

205%

185%

184%

100%

155%

150%

158%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

Index

99%

107%

168%

191%

244%

159%

207%

  Year Low

90%

103%

115%

162%

244%

159%

207%

  Year High

101%

110%

171%

239%

296%

205%

324%

 

 

MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES  First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13

C

S

SM

BO

W

KW

MW

K-N Spread

(19 3/4)

(41 1/2)

(4.6)

0.17

4 3/4

5 3/4

(9 3/4)

% Full Carry

(141%)

(227%)

(70%)

37%

34%

37%

(52%)

Open Interest

278,743

146,569

60,265

94,891

96,146

43,139*

10,939

Change

-16,861

-16,569

-5,060

-371

-6,006

-1,871

-1,134

Delivery Stocks

1.8

1.3

47.9

70.1

21.1

Registrations

22

0

0

12,237

1,153

*KC May Open Interest not yet updated

Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts

Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday

Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 4.15.13

Tues 4.16                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 4.17                    9:30 am           EIA Energy Stocks

Thurs 4.18                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 4.19                        2:00 pm           Cattle on Feed report

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 4.22.13

Fri 4.26                                                May Grain Options Expiration

Week of 4.29.13

Tues 4.30                                             First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Poun