KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS THURSDAY 6.06.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Thursday 6.06.13

 

Grain futures are trading near unchanged, with old crop losing slightly to new crop as markets consolidate recent price moves.  Old crop beans and corn are near recent highs, while new crop has backed off the early week rally as planting weather has improved.

There were a couple of surprises is this week’s Export Sales Report (see below for more detail).  Total old and new crop corn sales were much less than expected, while the US sold hefty amounts of old crop meal and soy oil.

We are beginning to see estimates for next Wednesday’s S+D report from various analysts.  The US numbers will be further modified by the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acre reports at the end of the month, so there may be more focus on non-US production and export estimates.  European weather has been cooler and wetter than desired, FSU weather continues to be erratic, Australia’s rainfall has improved recently and there are a variety of positive and negative estimates for South American production so there is room for surprising adjustments in world production estimates.

–          Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES–rounded  (7:45- 8:30 AM PAUSE)

 

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.60

$15.29

$455

$0.4845

$7.01

$7.43

$8.18

Change

-1

-3

-1

-0.0031

0

0

+2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  JULY 13

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.2%

+0.3%

-0.1%

-0.1%

+0.3%

  DEC 13(orX)

+0.5%

-0.1%

-0.3%

+0.4%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.3%

  JULY14

+0.2%

-0.2%

-0.3%

+0.2%

-0.2%

0.0%

+0.3%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.4%

-0.2%

+0.1%

+0.5%

-1.3%

-0.1%

+0.2%

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 6.03.13

Thurs 6.06                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.07                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.10.13

Mon 6.10                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 6.11                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.12                    11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

11:00 am         USDA June Supply/Demand Report

Thurs 6.13                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.14                        7:30 am           NOPA Crush

2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.17.13

Fri 6.21                                                Last Trading Day July Grain Options

 

Week of 6.24.13

Fri 6.28                                                First Notice Day July Grain Futures Expiration

11:00 am         Quarterly Grain Stocks

                                    11:00 am         Planted Acreage

 

 

 

2012-2013 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 5.30.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

6

24

23

TRADE ESTIMATE

20-32

11-26

11-22

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

4

2

-1

(NEEDED TOHITUSDA EST)

(5)

(0.4)

(28)

 

TOTAL SALES

684

1346

996

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

750

1350

1025

 

PERCENT SOLD

91 %

100 %

97 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

96 %

100 %

104 %

 

UNSOLD

66

4

29

UNSHIPPED

133

67

37

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

199

71

66

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

73 %

95 %

93 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

75 %

89 %

97 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

7 %

4 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

18 %

22 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

7 %

44 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 0  corn and beans = 13

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

-0.1

-2.2

0.4

0.8

-0.2

(NEEDED TOHITEST)

(25)

(2)

(3)

(0)

(3)

 

TOTAL SALES

385

218

22

198

172

USDA ESTIMATE

410

220

25

195

175

 

PERCENT SOLD

94 %

100 %

88 %

101 %

98 %

 

UNSOLD

25

2

3

-3

3

UNSHIPPED

17

4

1

13

2

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

42

6

4

13

5

 

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

34 %

40 %

27 %

23 %

16 %

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)

MEAL

OIL

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

134

30.5

(NEEDED TOHITUSDA EST)

(0)

(11)

 

TOTAL SALES

9200

870

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

8981

998

 

PERCENT SOLD

102 %

87 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

90 %

86 %

 

UNSOLD

-219

128

UNSHIPPED

1416

80

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

1416

208

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

87 %

79 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

74 %

74 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

4 %

7 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

25 %

11 %

#  weeks left in marketing year:  17

 

 

NEW CROP EXPORT SALES

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 5.30.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-14

2

22

24

 

TOTAL SALES

191

406

229

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1300

1450

925

 

PERCENT SOLD

15 %

28 %

25 %

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

16 %

8 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

14 %

20 %

22 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

10 %

44 %

37 %

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

11

6

0

5

3

 

TOTAL SALES

65

46

3

84

31

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)

MEAL

OIL

WEEKLY SALES

137

0

 

TOTAL SALES

705

1

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

9253

590

PERCENT SOLD

8 %

>1 %

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

25 %

7 %

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis |  Helen Pound