KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS THURSDAY 4.25.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Thursday 4.25.13

 

     Grain futures are higher this morning as they consolidate recent lows.  Maybe we have found some support.  Weather forecasters are still talking about another Midwest storm system mid to late next week that will continue to slow corn planting progress. 

     The USDA reported hefty new crop corn export sales this morning – 300 mmt to China and 240 to Unknown.  The Weekly Export Sales report showed old crop corn sales at more than needed to hit the USDA target, while wheat sales were less than needed and old crop beans showed a net cancellation.  See below for more detail.

          Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

CK

SK

SMK

BOK

WK

KWK

MWK

Today’s Pause

$6.44

$14.12

$408

$0.4956

$6.95

$7.44

$8.22

Change

+4

+8

+2

+0.0038

+4

+5

+4

 

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.23

$13.55

$394

$0.4930

$6.94

$7.45

$8.07

Change

+4

+10

+3

+0.0040

+2

+5

+5

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES  

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  MAY 13

+0.6%

+0.5%

+0.6%

+0.8%

+0.5%

+0.7%

+0.5%

  JULY 13

+0.7%

+0.7%

+0.8%

+0.8%

+0.3%

+0.6%

+0.6%

  DEC 13

+0.3%

+0.6%

+0.6%

+0.6%

+0.3%

+0.7%

+0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.5%

-0.1%

+0.4%

-0.1%

+2.2%

+1.7%

NA

           

2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

Chi Wht

KC

Mpls

Index

156%

146%

136%

86%

114%

117%

125%

  Year Low

134%

113%

91%

82%

93%

95%

111%

  Year High

205%

185%

184%

100%

155%

150%

158%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

Index

100%

107%

171%

197%

235%

165%

NA

  Year Low

90%

103%

115%

162%

233%

157%

199%

  Year High

101%

110%

171%

239%

296%

205%

324%

 

 

MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES  First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13

C

S

SM

BO

W

KW

MW

K-N Spread

(21 1/4)

(56 1/4)

(14.7)

(0.0025)

1/4

(1/4)

(17)

% Full Carry

(152%)

(307%)

(222%)

(55%)

2%

(2%)

(90%)

Open Interest

143,208

73,610

23,510

25,230

38,303

21,633*

5,097*

Change

-17,936

-17,610

-3,550

-11,942

-6,096

-2,314

-210

Delivery Stocks

1.7

1.1

44.6

67.7

19.2

Registrations

0

0

0

11,659

1,153

*KC and Mpls May Open Interest not yet updated

Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts

Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday

Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 4.22.13

Thurs 4.25                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 4.26                                                May Grain Options Expiration

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 4.29.13

Mon 4.29                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 4.30                                            First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries                

                                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

FOMC Meeting

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 5.01                    9:30 am           EIA Energy Stocks

FOMC Meeting

Thurs 5.02                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 5.03                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 5.06.13

Fri 5.10                       11:00 am         USDA May Supply/Demand and Production reports

 

 

HEADLINES

 

04/25 08:00a CST  DJ USDA Says 300,000 Tons of Corn Sold to China in 2013-14

 

04/25 08:00a CST  DJ USDA Says 240,000 Tons of Corn Sold to Unknown in 2013-14

 

 

2012-2013EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 4.18.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

13

-8+23

11

TRADE ESTIMATE

8-24

22-37

18-29

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

12

-8

3

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(8)

(0.2)

(9)

TOTAL SALES

646

1339

967

USDA ESTIMATE

800

1350

1025

PERCENT SOLD

81 %

99 %

95 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

87 %

95 %

102 %

UNSOLD

154

11

58

UNSHIPPED

169

94

142

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

323

105

200

PERCENT SHIPPED

60 %

92 %

80 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

64 %

83 %

87 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

7 %

4 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

18 %

23 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

7 %

44 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 6  corn and beans = 19

 

Wheat sales:  Egypt, Japan, Chile and others: new crop was sold to China, Philippines, Guatemala and others

Corn sales:  Japan, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and others

Bean sales:  Mexico, Indonesia and others; new crop was sold to China, Unknown and others

 

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

2.6

-0.2

0

1.3

-1.1

(NEEDED TO HIT EST)

(4.7)

(1)

(0.7)

(1.4)

(0.9)

TOTAL SALES

369

218

20

192

168

USDA ESTIMATE

400

225

25

200

175

PERCENT SOLD

92 %

97 %

80 %

96 %

96 %

UNSOLD

31

7

5

8

7

UNSHIPPED

63

28

4

33

15

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

94

35

9

41

22

CARRYOVER/USE %

36 %

37 %

27 %

23 %

16 %

 

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)             

MEAL

OIL

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

193

2

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(4)

(9)

TOTAL SALES

8585

831

USDA ESTIMATE

8482

1043

PERCENT SOLD

101 %

80 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

82 %

80 %

UNSOLD

-103

214

UNSHIPPED

1556

88

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

1556

302

PERCENT SHIPPED

83 %

71 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

63 %

65 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

4 %

6 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

24 %

11 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  23 

 

Meal sales:  Philippines, Morocco and others

Oil sales:  Small sales to a variety of destinations

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound