English
AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS Thursday 4.25.13
Grain futures are higher this morning as they consolidate recent lows. Maybe we have found some support. Weather forecasters are still talking about another Midwest storm system mid to late next week that will continue to slow corn planting progress.
The USDA reported hefty new crop corn export sales this morning – 300 mmt to China and 240 to Unknown. The Weekly Export Sales report showed old crop corn sales at more than needed to hit the USDA target, while wheat sales were less than needed and old crop beans showed a net cancellation. See below for more detail.
– Helen Pound
GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded
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|
CK |
SK |
SMK |
BOK |
WK |
KWK |
MWK |
|
Today’s Pause |
$6.44 |
$14.12 |
$408 |
$0.4956 |
$6.95 |
$7.44 |
$8.22 |
|
Change |
+4 |
+8 |
+2 |
+0.0038 |
+4 |
+5 |
+4 |
|
|
CN |
SN |
SMN |
BON |
WN |
KWN |
MWN |
|
Today’s Pause |
$6.23 |
$13.55 |
$394 |
$0.4930 |
$6.94 |
$7.45 |
$8.07 |
|
Change |
+4 |
+10 |
+3 |
+0.0040 |
+2 |
+5 |
+5 |
OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES
|
Grains |
Corn |
Beans |
Meal |
Oil |
W |
KC |
Mpls |
|
% Daily Change |
|
||||||
|
MAY 13 |
+0.6% |
+0.5% |
+0.6% |
+0.8% |
+0.5% |
+0.7% |
+0.5% |
|
JULY 13 |
+0.7% |
+0.7% |
+0.8% |
+0.8% |
+0.3% |
+0.6% |
+0.6% |
|
DEC 13 |
+0.3% |
+0.6% |
+0.6% |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
+0.7% |
+0.5% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Macros |
Dollar |
10 Yr |
S+P |
Crude |
Copper |
Gold |
Silver |
|
% Daily Change |
-0.5% |
-0.1% |
+0.4% |
-0.1% |
+2.2% |
+1.7% |
NA |
2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)
|
Grains |
Corn |
Beans |
Meal |
Oil |
Chi Wht |
KC |
Mpls |
|
Index |
156% |
146% |
136% |
86% |
114% |
117% |
125% |
|
Year Low |
134% |
113% |
91% |
82% |
93% |
95% |
111% |
|
Year High |
205% |
185% |
184% |
100% |
155% |
150% |
158% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Macros |
Dollar |
10 Yr |
S+P |
Crude |
Copper |
Gold |
Silver |
|
Index |
100% |
107% |
171% |
197% |
235% |
165% |
NA |
|
Year Low |
90% |
103% |
115% |
162% |
233% |
157% |
199% |
|
Year High |
101% |
110% |
171% |
239% |
296% |
205% |
324% |
MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES – First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13
|
|
C |
S |
SM |
BO |
W |
KW |
MW |
|
K-N Spread |
(21 1/4) |
(56 1/4) |
(14.7) |
(0.0025) |
1/4 |
(1/4) |
(17) |
|
% Full Carry |
(152%) |
(307%) |
(222%) |
(55%) |
2% |
(2%) |
(90%) |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Open Interest |
143,208 |
73,610 |
23,510 |
25,230 |
38,303 |
21,633* |
5,097* |
|
Change |
-17,936 |
-17,610 |
-3,550 |
-11,942 |
-6,096 |
-2,314 |
-210 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Delivery Stocks |
1.7 |
1.1 |
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|
44.6 |
67.7 |
19.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Registrations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11,659 |
1,153 |
|
|
*KC and Mpls May Open Interest not yet updated
Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts
Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday
Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13
UPCOMING REPORTS
Week of 4.22.13
Thurs 4.25 7:30 am Export Sales
Fri 4.26 May Grain Options Expiration
2:00 pm Commitment of Traders report
Week of 4.29.13
Mon 4.29 10:00 am Export Inspections
3:00 pm Weekly Crop Progress Report
Tues 4.30 First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries
3:30 pm API Energy Stocks
FOMC Meeting
Futures Delivery Stocks
Wed 5.01 9:30 am EIA Energy Stocks
FOMC Meeting
Thurs 5.02 7:30 am Export Sales
Fri 5.03 2:00 pm Commitment of Traders report
Week of 5.06.13
Fri 5.10 11:00 am USDA May Supply/Demand and Production reports
HEADLINES
04/25 08:00a CST DJ USDA Says 300,000 Tons of Corn Sold to China in 2013-14
04/25 08:00a CST DJ USDA Says 240,000 Tons of Corn Sold to Unknown in 2013-14
2012-2013EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)
|
Week ended 4.18.13 |
CORN |
BEANS |
WHEAT |
|
TOTAL WEEKLY SALES |
13 |
-8+23 |
11 |
|
TRADE ESTIMATE |
8-24 |
22-37 |
18-29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13 |
12 |
-8 |
3 |
|
(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST) |
(8) |
(0.2) |
(9) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL SALES |
646 |
1339 |
967 |
|
USDA ESTIMATE |
800 |
1350 |
1025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PERCENT SOLD |
81 % |
99 % |
95 % |
|
5 yr Average percent Sold |
87 % |
95 % |
102 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
UNSOLD |
154 |
11 |
58 |
|
UNSHIPPED |
169 |
94 |
142 |
|
POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL |
323 |
105 |
200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PERCENT SHIPPED |
60 % |
92 % |
80 % |
|
5 yr Average percent Shipped |
64 % |
83 % |
87 % |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US CARRYOVER/USE % |
7 % |
4 % |
30 % |
|
WORLD CARRYOVER/USE % |
12 % |
18 % |
23 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USDA ESTIMATE OF US EXPORTS AS A % OF US TOTAL USE |
7 % |
44 % |
43 % |
# weeks left in marketing year: wheat = 6 corn and beans = 19
Wheat sales: Egypt, Japan, Chile and others: new crop was sold to China, Philippines, Guatemala and others
Corn sales: Japan, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and others
Bean sales: Mexico, Indonesia and others; new crop was sold to China, Unknown and others
WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)
|
|
HRW |
HRS |
DURUM |
SRW |
WHITE |
|
WEEKLY SALES |
2.6 |
-0.2 |
0 |
1.3 |
-1.1 |
|
(NEEDED TO HIT EST) |
(4.7) |
(1) |
(0.7) |
(1.4) |
(0.9) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL SALES |
369 |
218 |
20 |
192 |
168 |
|
USDA ESTIMATE |
400 |
225 |
25 |
200 |
175 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PERCENT SOLD |
92 % |
97 % |
80 % |
96 % |
96 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UNSOLD |
31 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
|
UNSHIPPED |
63 |
28 |
4 |
33 |
15 |
|
POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL |
94 |
35 |
9 |
41 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CARRYOVER/USE % |
36 % |
37 % |
27 % |
23 % |
16 % |
MEAL AND OIL SALES (in 000 mt)
|
|
MEAL |
OIL |
|
TOTAL WEEKLY SALES |
193 |
2 |
|
(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST) |
(4) |
(9) |
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL SALES |
8585 |
831 |
|
USDA ESTIMATE |
8482 |
1043 |
|
|
|
|
|
PERCENT SOLD |
101 % |
80 % |
|
5 yr Average percent Sold |
82 % |
80 % |
|
|
|
|
|
UNSOLD |
-103 |
214 |
|
UNSHIPPED |
1556 |
88 |
|
POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL |
1556 |
302 |
|
|
|
|
|
PERCENT SHIPPED |
83 % |
71 % |
|
5 yr Average percent Shipped |
63 % |
65 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US CARRYOVER/USE % |
>1 % |
8 % |
|
WORLD CARRYOVER/USE % |
4 % |
6 % |
|
|
|
|
|
USDA ESTIMATE OF US EXPORTS AS A % OF US TOTAL USE |
24 % |
11 % |
# weeks left in marketing year: 23
Meal sales: Philippines, Morocco and others
Oil sales: Small sales to a variety of destinations
Back Office Minneapolis | Helen Pound
