KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS THURSDAY 4.18.12

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Thursday 4.18.13

 

     Grain futures ended the overnight session with beans and wheat higher, while corn was unchanged.  SK extended its range above last week’s highs, wheat challenged last week’s highs, and corn sat at last week’s highs.  CZ was firmer than CK, and SK was firmer than SX as the themes of rationing tight old crop beans and pricing in delay of new crop corn planting continued.  The USDA reported a 252 mmt sale of new crop beans to China.

     The Weekly Export Sales report showed larger than expected sales and no suggestion of old crop bean, meal or corn rationing.  See below for more detail.

          Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

CK

SK

SMK

BOK

WK

KWK

MWK

Today’s Pause

$6.61

$14.34

$414

$0.4972

$7.09

$7.46

$8.13

Change

0

+12

+6

+0.0067

+5

+4

-5

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES   (8:30 am Central)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  MAY 13

0.0%

+0.8%

+1.5%

+0.7%

+0.8%

+0.5%

+0.6%

  JULY 13

+0.1%

+0.8%

+1.4%

+0.6%

+0.8%

+0.6%

+0.7%

  DEC 13

+0.4%

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.3%

+0.7%

+0.6%

+0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.3%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+1.2%

-1.1%

+0.8%

+0.9%

           

2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Oil

Chi Wht

KC

Mpls

Index

160%

148%

137%

86%

116%

118%

124%

  Year Low

134%

113%

91%

82%

93%

95%

111%

  Year High

205%

185%

184%

100%

155%

150%

158%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

Index

99%

107%

168%

189%

238%

158%

205%

  Year Low

90%

103%

115%

162%

238%

157%

201%

  Year High

101%

110%

171%

239%

296%

205%

324%

 

 

MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES  First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13

C

S

SM

BO

W

KW

MW

K-N Spread

(19 1/4)

(41 3/4)

(8.6)

0.00

3 1/4

5 3/4

(11)

% Full Carry

(138%)

(228%)

(130%)

0%

23%

37%

(59%)

Open Interest

236,753

127,454

43,833

66,337

71,708

34,174*

9,224*

Change

-22,203

-6,349

-6,685

-13,257

-12,137

-3,336

-1,715

Delivery Stocks

1.8

1.3

47.9

70.1

21.1

Registrations

22

0

0

12,237

1,153

*KC and Mpls May Open Interest not yet updated

Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts

Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday

Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 4.15.13

Thurs 4.18                   7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 4.19                        2:00 pm           Cattle on Feed report

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

Week of 4.22.13

Fri 4.26                                                May Grain Options Expiration

Week of 4.29.13

Tues 4.30                                             First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries

 

 

 

HEADLINES

 

04/18 08:00a CST  *DJ USDA Says 252,000 Tons of Soybeans Sold to China in 2013-14

 

04/18 05:00a CST  DJ Strategie Grains Cuts EU 2013-14 Wheat Output Forecast

          Wheat production 0.5 mmt lower to 130 mmt

 

04/18 03:01a CST  DJ Russia’s Grain Exports Seen Rebounding in May

            -larger than expected end of year stocks allow additional export sales

 

 

2012-2013EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 4.11.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

17

21

62

TRADE ESTIMATE

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

16

13

20

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(8)

(0.2)

(9)

TOTAL SALES

634

1346

964

USDA ESTIMATE

800

1350

1025

PERCENT SOLD

79 %

100 %

94 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

85 %

93 %

101 %

UNSOLD

166

4

61

UNSHIPPED

170

109

160

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

336

113

221

PERCENT SHIPPED

58 %

92 %

78 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

62 %

82 %

86 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

7 %

4 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

18 %

23 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

7 %

44 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 7  corn and beans = 20

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

10.2

3

3

2

2

(NEEDED TO HIT EST)

(4.7)

(1)

(0.7)

(1.4)

(0.9)

TOTAL SALES

367

218

20

190

169

USDA ESTIMATE

400

225

25

200

175

PERCENT SOLD

92 %

97 %

80 %

95 %

97 %

UNSOLD

33

7

5

10

6

UNSHIPPED

68

33

5

36

18

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

101

40

10

46

24

CARRYOVER/USE %

36 %

37 %

27 %

23 %

16 %

 

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)             

MEAL

OIL

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

266

8

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(4)

(9)

TOTAL SALES

8389

829

USDA ESTIMATE

8482

1043

PERCENT SOLD

99 %

80 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

80 %

78 %

UNSOLD

93

214

UNSHIPPED

1539

89

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

1632

303

PERCENT SHIPPED

81 %

71 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

61 %

62 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

4 %

6 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

24 %

11 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  24 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound