KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS THURS 5.16.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Thursday 5.16.13

 

     Grain futures continue to consolidate recent ranges.  Futures prices are mixed with corn lower, while beans and wheat trade higher.  The market is focused on rationing old crop bean and corn supplies, as well as new crop production expectations. 

     The Weekly Export Sales report showed slowing bean and wheat sales, and improving corn and meals sales.  Total meal sales continue to be well over USDA projections.  It appears that current prices are rationing bean and corn export demand, but it harder to tell if this is happening in the domestic market.  Merchants say the best bid for HRW is for feed.

     A fair amount of planting progress took place this week, but scattered showers are beginning across the US and are expected to increase in intensity through the weekend and into next week.

          Helen Pound     

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.50

$14.17

$410

$0.4956

$6.97

$7.56

$8.07

Change

-1

+4

-0.3

+0.0021

+3

+5

+3

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES  

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  JULY 13

-0.1%

+0.3%

-0.1%

+0.4%

+0.5%

+0.6%

+0.4%

  DEC 13(orX)

+0.2%

+0.5%

+0.3%

+0.5%

+0.5%

+0.6%

0.0%

  JULT14

+0.3%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.1%

 

 

-1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.3%

-0.1%

+0.2%

-0.1%

-1.4%

-2.5%

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 5.13.13

Thur 5.16                     7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 5.17                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

                                                            Cattle on Feed

 

 

2012-2013EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 5.09.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

10

13

20

TRADE ESTIMATE

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

9

0.6

5

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(5)

(0.6)

(14)

TOTAL SALES

673

1341

987

USDA ESTIMATE

750

1350

1025

PERCENT SOLD

90 %

99 %

97 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

92 %

97 %

104 %

UNSOLD

77

9

38

UNSHIPPED

160

72

85

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

237

81

123

PERCENT SHIPPED

68 %

94 %

88 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

69 %

86 %

94 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

7 %

4 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

18 %

22 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

7 %

44 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 3  corn and beans = 16

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

3

-0.2

0.1

0.6

0.9

(NEEDED TO HIT EST)

(5.7)

(1)

(1.2)

(1)

(1.5)

TOTAL SALES

379

221

20

197

170

USDA ESTIMATE

410

220

25

195

175

PERCENT SOLD

92 %

100 %

80 %

101 %

97 %

UNSOLD

31

-1

5

4

6

UNSHIPPED

43

14

2

20

6

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

74

14

7

24

12

CARRYOVER/USE %

34 %

40 %

27 %

23 %

16 %

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound