KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS MONDAY 5.20.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Monday 5.20.13

 

     Grain futures prices are close to unchanged.  Old crop corn and beans are trading higher, while new crop plus wheat is trading lower.  Heavy rains over the weekend and early in the week have slowed or halted planting and suggest that there may be less corn and more soybeans planted. 

     This morning we are continuing to see a shift in basis values.  Export and domestic bean basis levels that were sky high last week as the May futures were liquidating continue to pull back.  Strangely enough, we are seeing bean futures trading at new recent highs and old crop/new crop futures inverses continuing to add old crop premium, at the same time basis levels are declining.  This unusual situation may be caused by offers from South America.

     The corn price structure is also changing.  Futures prices are trading mid range, the old crop/ new crop futures inverses are adding old crop premium, and the domestic basis levels are improving.

     SR wheat futures are lagging, futures board spreads are at a carry, and basis levels are soft.  Both HRW and HRS futures are gaining on SRW futures as weather problem erode HRW quality and delay HRS planting.

     All in all the grain price structure seems to be changing gear as large South American bean and corn production, and better planting weather outside the US weigh on futures prices even as the US experiences rationing of tight old crop supplies and worries about new crop planting.

          Helen Pound 

 

GRAIN FUTURES–rounded

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.54

$14.49

$427

$0.4949

$6.81

$7.36

$8.05

Change

+2

+1

+2

-0.0003

-2

-1

+1

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES  

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  JULY 13

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.4%

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.2%

+0.1%

  DEC 13(orX)

-0.3%

-0.6%

-1.0%

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.3%

+0.1%

  JULT14

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.9%

+0.1%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.3%

+0.2%

-0.1%

-0.6%

+0.2%

-0.8%

-3.3%

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 5.20.13

Mon 5.20                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 5.21                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 5.22                    11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 5.23                     7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 5.24                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 5.27.13

Mon 5.27                                             MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY

Tues 5.28                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 5.29                    3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

Thur 5.30                     11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

Fri 5.31                        7:30 am           Export Sales

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

 

HEADLINES

 

05/20 08:00a CST  DJ USDA Says 120,000 Tons of Corn Sold to Unknown in 2013-14

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound