KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS FRIDAY 5.31.13

 

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS     Friday 5.31.13

 

     In spite of poor Weekly Export Sales, SN and CN futures are relatively strong, and old crop futures are gaining on new crop.  Weekly old crop bean sales were a net cancellation, and corn sales were just over 3 million bushels.  Most business is focused on new crop sales with new crop bean sales at 26% of the 2013-14 USDA estimate, corn at 15%, and wheat at 22%.  See below for more detail.

     Traders are beginning to focus on liquidation of July futures positions.  Domestic corn basis values continue to be steady at historically high levels, while domestic bean basis values are also at historically high levels and continuing to move higher.  With just a bit less rain in next week’s US Midwest weather forecast, traders are focused on buying in short July positions.

     The wheat market is a big question mark as more countries are calling for increased testing of US wheat supplies for evidence of GMO DNA.  The GMO issue is quite important for food companies who are labeling product as non-GMO especially in Asia and Europe.

          Helen Pound 

 

GRAIN FUTURES–rounded  (7:45- 8:30 AM PAUSE)

CN

SN

SMN

BON

WN

KWN

MWN

Today’s Pause

$6.55

$15.08

$446

$0.4858

$6.94

$7.43

$8.13

Change

+1

+12

+5

0.0000

-5

-3

-3

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES  

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

 

  JULY 13

+0.1%

+0.8%

+1.1%

0.0%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.4%

  DEC 13(orX)

-0.1%

+0.6%

+0.8%

+0.1%

-0.8%

-0.6%

 

  JULY14

-0.2%

+0.8%

+0.5%

-0.3%

-0.6%

+0.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.3%

+0.2%

-0.5%

-1.4%

-1.0%

-0.2%

-2.4%

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 5.27.13

Fri 5.31                        7:30 am           Export Sales

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.03.13

Mon 6.03                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 6.04                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.05                    11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 6.06                     7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.07                        2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.10.13

Mon 6.10                     10:00 am         Export Inspections

                                    3:00 pm           Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 6.11                     3:30 pm           API Energy Stocks

                                                            Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 6.12                    11:00 am         EIA Energy Stocks

                                    11:00 am         USDA June Supply/Demand Report

Thur 6.13                     7:30 am           Export Sales

Fri 6.14                        7:30 am           NOPA Crush

                                    2:00 pm           Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 6.17.13

Fri 6.21                                                Last Trading Day July Grain Options

 

Week of 6.24.13

Fri 6.28                                                First Notice Day July Grain Futures Expiration

                                    11:00 am         Quarterly Grain Stocks

                                    11:00 am         Planted Acreage

 

 

 

2012-2013EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 5.16.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

35

-4 +28

28

TRADE ESTIMATE

20-32

11-29

11-26

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

3

-4

1

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(5)

(0.1)

(15)

TOTAL SALES

680

1344

997

USDA ESTIMATE

750

1350

1025

PERCENT SOLD

91 %

100 %

98 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

95 %

99 %

104 %

UNSOLD

70

6

28

UNSHIPPED

143

67

58

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

213

73

86

PERCENT SHIPPED

72 %

95 %

91 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

73 %

88 %

97 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

7 %

4 %

30 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

18 %

22 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

7 %

44 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 1  corn and beans = 14

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

-0.5

-0.9

0.7

0.2

1.9

(NEEDED TO HIT EST)

(12)

(0)

(2)

(0)

(2.5)

TOTAL SALES

385

220

22

197

172

USDA ESTIMATE

410

220

25

195

175

PERCENT SOLD

94 %

100 %

88 %

101 %

98 %

UNSOLD

25

0

3

-2

3

UNSHIPPED

28

9

1

16

5

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

53

9

4

16

8

CARRYOVER/USE %

34 %

40 %

27 %

23 %

16 %

 

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)             

MEAL

OIL

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

149

2.9

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(0)

(11)

TOTAL SALES

9066

840

USDA ESTIMATE

8981

1043

PERCENT SOLD

101 %

84 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

89 %

86 %

UNSOLD

-85

203

UNSHIPPED

1393

52

POSSIBLE TO CANCEL/NOT SELL

1308

255

PERCENT SHIPPED

85 %

79 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

72 %

73 %

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

4 %

7 %

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

25 %

11 %

#  weeks left in marketing year:  18 

 

 

 

 

Back Office Minneapolis Helen Pound