KNIGHT AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS FRIDAY 4.05.13

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS Friday 4.05.13

Grain futures prices are mixed with corn up, wheat steady, and beans lower. The USDA announced a new crop corn sale. Corn futures are continuing to consolidate Monday’s lows, wheat is consolidating this week’s bounce and beans are extending their range lower. Traders seem to be squaring up futures positions as we head into the weekend.
There is expected to be more grain price fireworks on Wednesday when the USDA releases its April Supply/Demand Report at 11 am. Traders ideas vary on how much of the surprising increase in quarterly stocks reported last week will make their way into the S+D report. Most traders expect to see considerably more corn carryover and some additional wheat carryover. The jury is still out on bean carryover estimates as some traders expect to see some additional carryover, while others think that export sales and domestic crush may be increased to offset the stocks increase.
New crop S+Ds won’t be released until the May report. Last week’s report showed more than expected corn acres – about the same as last year, and many fewer than expected bean acres – about the same as last year. Presently cool, wet weather is delaying early spring planting, so there may end up being a shift from corn to bean acres.
New CBT hours start Sunday night – see below.
– Helen Pound

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES (8:30 am Central)
Grains Corn Beans Meal Oil W KC Mpls
% Daily Change
MAY 13 +0.6% -0.9% -1.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
JULY 13 +0.4% -0.9% -1.0% -0.1% 0% -0.1% -0.1%
DEC 13 +0.1% -0.4% -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%

Macros Dollar 10 Yr S+P Crude Copper Gold Silver
% Daily Change -0.2% +0.2% -1.1% -0.6% -0.4% -1.0% +0.7%

2009 INDEX (based on January 2, 2009)
Grains Corn Beans Meal Oil Chi Wht KC Mpls
Index 154% 140% 131% 84% 114% 114% 120%
Year Low 134% 113% 91% 82% 93% 95% 111%
Year High 205% 185% 184% 100% 155% 150% 158%

Macros Dollar 10 Yr S+P Crude Copper Gold Silver
Index 100% 107% 166% 200% 249% 178% 235%
Year Low 90% 103% 115% 162% 245% 173% 229%
Year High 101% 110% 159% 239% 296% 205% 324%

MAY FUTURES DELIVERIES – First Notice Day is Tuesday 4.30.13
MW KW W C S SM BO
K-N Spread (1 ½ ) 6 ¾ 5 ¼ (12 ½) (20 ¼ ) (2.6) 0.28
% Full Carry (8 %) 44 % 38 % (89 %) (111 %) (39 %) 62 %

May
Open Interest 16,589
(-770) 71,014
(-2689) 156,636
(-12,130) 424,268
(-14,607) 232,876
(-3,105) 115,778
(-2849) 149,365
(+4,139)

Delivery Stocks 21.9 73.8 50.0 1.2 1.9

Registrations 1153 66 0 0 12,237
Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts
Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday
Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

CHANGES IN THE VALUE OF A LOADED BARGE IN CHICAGO
FROM LAST WEEK TO THIS WEEK – all markets converted to May using board spreads
SPOT APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG
CORN
3.26.13 +13 CK +10 CK +2 CK +3 CK -18 CK -105 CK
4.05.13 +7 CK +8 CK +3 CK +8 CK -12 CK -67 CK

BEANS
3.26.13 +18 SK +13 SK +12SK -10 SK -16 SK
4.05.13 +26 SK +27 SK +16 SK -3 SK -12 SK -103 SK

WHEAT
3.26.13 -3 WK +4 WK -1 WK -7 WK -10 WK -4 WK
4.05.13 +1 WK +2 WK +2 WK +3 WK -1 WK +6 WK
• Export corn basis declining and below futures delivery values – domestic market still much stronger – cash deliveries against May futures unlikely
• Export bean basis very strong and well above futures delivery values – domestic market also very strong – NO cash deliveries versus May futures likely
• Export SRW wheat basis improved but still well below futures delivery values – mill basis well over delivery values – could see cash deliveries versus the May futures

UPCOMING REPORTS
Week of 4.01.13
Fri 4.05 Goldman Roll begins
Commitment of Traders report

Week of 4.08.13
Sun 4.07 7:00 pm NEW CBT HOURS START – electronic trade opens
Mon 4.08 7:45 am Electric trade pauses
8:30 am Pit opens and Electronic trade resumes
10:00 am Export Inspections
1:15 pm Pit and Electronic trade closes
3:00 pm Weekly Crop Progress Report
7:00 pm Electronic trade opens
Tues 4.09 3:30 pm API Energy Stocks
Futures Delivery Stocks
Wed 4.10 9:30 am EIA Energy Stocks
11:00 am USDA Supply/Demand Report
Thur 4.11 7:30 am Export Sales
Goldman Roll ends
Fri 4.12 Commitment of Traders report

HEADLINES

04/05 08:00a CST DJ USDA Says 120,000 Tons of Corn Sold to Unknown in 2013-14

04/05 01:17a CST DJ South Korea Mills Buy Eastern Australia Noodle Wheat in Rare Deal

Back Office Minneapolis | Helen Pound