Knight AM Grain Futures Comments

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Wednesday   10.23.13

 

Grain futures are trading higher this morning as forecasts for freezing temps extend into southern Illinois this week.  In addition, the USDA has announced a sale of 120 mmt of beans to Russia.  Domestic cash market basis bids are creeping higher – indicating that the tug of war to make sure commercials have adequate coverage is gearing up sooner than expected.

Part of the scramble for coverage is because the premium for US grain over offers from other competitors is eroding.  The US needs to ration tight bean supplies.  The US needs to gain market share in world corn trade and corn values for January forward are now in the ballpark of Brazil and Ukraine offers – but not quite cheap enough as Vietnam bought 400 mmt of corn from Brazil for JFM overnight.

Wheat prices around the world are also creeping higher – in Europe, Black Sea region, and South America.  The Brazilian wheat harvest is experiencing continued rain delays and quality loss.  Argentina is worried that cold temps over the next two days may damage heading wheat.  US SRW and HRW supplies are tightening, while HRS supplies are still quite abundant.  The US wheat price structure is adjusting to make HRS cheap enough to encourage more HRS sales.

SX are trading at new recent highs above $13 and wheat futures are approaching recent highs, while CZ continues to consolidate near recent lows.  – Helen

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.40

$13.08

$418

$0.4165

$7.07

$7.72

$7.63

Change

+2

+6

+2

+0.0013

+6

+7

+7

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.4%

+0.4%

+0.5%

+0.3%

+0.8%

+0.9%

+0.9%

  JULY 14

+0.5%

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.3%

+0.6%

+0.5%

+0.6%

DEC 14(or X)

+0.6%

-0.1%

-0.2%

+0.3%

+0.9%

+0.5%

+0.7%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.1%

+0.1%

-0.4%

-1.9%

-1.5%

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+0 CZ

+3 CZ

+10 CZ

+18 CZ

+93 CZ

+10 CZ

 change

0

0

+3

+1

+3

0

 

BEANS

+30 SX

+15 SX

+10 SX

+5 SX

 change

0

0

0

+3

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS –

 

Week of 10.21.13

Tues 10.22                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.23                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.24                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.25                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                                LAST TRADING DAY NOVEMBER GRAIN OPTIONS

 

Week of 10.28.13

Mon 10.28                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.29                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Wed 10.30                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.31                                         FIRST NOTICE DAY FOR SX FUTURES

FOMC MEETING

7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.01                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 11.04.13

Mon 11.04                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 11.05                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 11.06                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 11.07                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.08                    11:00 AM       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

11:00 AM       USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

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