Knight AM Grain Forecast

AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS Monday 4.08.13

Grain futures prices are firmer this morning with old crop beans and corn gaining on new crop. Beans and corn are bouncing off/consolidating recent lows, while wheat is consolidating after bouncing last week well off their lows. There are rumors that close to a million tone sale of US SRW to China is in the process of being announced – although there were no USDA export announcements this morning.
Wednesday the USDA will release their April Supply/Demand report. Recent wire service surveys show expectations for modest increases in US and World corn carryover, but just small increases in bean and wheat carryover (see below). If the industry survey numbers pan out, the most bearish view would be that US corn carryover as a percent of use would increase to 7.4% from 6% in last month’s report and World corn carryover as a percent of use would increase to 12.5% from 12.3% last month. Bean and wheat c/u% would be almost unchanged with beans at 4% US and 17% World, and wheat at 30% US and 22% World. My take is that the recent price break was overdone, but there may be trapped speculative longs and US and South American farmers that have become motivated sellers as/if the market rallies. New crop planting weather is becoming a market moving factor – with the trade currently concerned about cool, wet weather planting delays in the US, EU, FSU and China lending support to the market.
– Helen Pound

Deliveries, Open Interest and Registration in number of 5,000 bushel contracts
Delivery Stocks in million bushels – reported each Tuesday
Last trading day is Tuesday 5.14.13

UPCOMING REPORTS
Week of 4.08.13
Mon 4.08 7:45 am Electronic trade pauses
8:30 am Pit opens and Electronic trade resumes
10:00 am Export Inspections
1:15 pm Pit and Electronic trade closes
3:00 pm Weekly Crop Progress Report
7:00 pm Electronic trade opens
Tues 4.09 3:30 pm API Energy Stocks
Futures Delivery Stocks
Wed 4.10 9:30 am EIA Energy Stocks
11:00 am USDA Supply/Demand Report
Thurs 4.04 7:30 am Export Sales
Fri 4.05 Commitment of Traders report
Week of 4.15.13
Mon 4.15 7:30 am NOPA Crush
10:00 am Export Inspections
3:00 pm Weekly Crop Progress Report
Tues 4.16 3:30 pm API Energy Stocks
Futures Delivery Stocks
Wed 4.17 9:30 am EIA Energy Stocks
Thurs 4.18 7:30 am Export Sales
Fri 4.19 2:00 pm Cattle on Feed report
2:00 pm Commitment of Traders report
Week of 4.22.13
Fri 4.26 May Grain Options Expiration
Week of 4.29.13
Tues 4.30 First Notice Day May Grain Futures Deliveries