KCG Morning Grain Comments

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Tuesday   8.27.13

 

Grain futures prices are mixed and trading near yesterday’s close.  Weather forecasts for US Midwest do not include any appreciable amount of rain in the next 5 days and temperatures continue to be hot.  This should support the market on pull backs.

There has been a fair amount of US and South American farmer selling on the rally.  Export bids are softer, but the US domestic market has both significantly lower and significantly higher basis levels depending on local cash sales – note easier basis in Central Illinois, but stronger basis in Texas.  Corn harvest in southern US and California is progressing.

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+35 CU

+160 CU

+ 165 CU

+275 CU

+151 CU

BEANS

+60 SX

+160 SX

+108 SX

 

Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Quality and Progress Report indicated the anticipated reduction in corn and bean quality ratings as well as a pickup in the pace of crop advancement toward maturity.

CORN

  • The overall corn rating declined slightly with Good +Excellent ratings at 59% (61% last week), and Poor + Very Poor ratings at 14% (13% last week)
  • Overall 70% of the corn crop had entered Dough state versus 79% average, and 23% of the crop has entered Dent stage versus 45% average.  Harvest is underway in the South and in  California.
  • Iowa is 46% in Dough stage versus 77% average, while Illinois is 88% in Dough state versus 88% ave.
  • Most northern states have made good progress toward maturity, but Wisconsin is lagging at just 75% Dough stage

BEANS

  • The overall bean rating declined slightly more than corn with Good +Excellent ratings at 58% (62% last week), and Poor + Very Poor ratings at 13% (10% last week)
  • Overall 84% of the bean crop is setting pods versus 90% average.
  • Iowa has 83% of the crop setting pods versus 95% average, while Illinois has 83% setting pods versus 91% average.
  • Northern states have mostly made good progress with North Dakota at 93% setting pods and South Dakota at 91% setting pods – but Wisconsin lagging at 75% setting pods.

 

First Notice Day for September futures deliveries is Friday.  The rally in the futures market is helping to reduce September open interest.

Weather forecasts and actual rainfall events are the main market focus.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CU

SU

SMU

BOU

WU

KWU

MWU

Today’s Pause

$5.15

$14.27

$460

$0.4446

$6.55

$7.12

$7.33

Change

-1

-1

+2

+0.0002

0

+4

+4

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

-0.2%

-0.1%

+0.4%

+0.1%

+0.1%

+0.5%

+0.5%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.3%

+0.0%

+0.1%

+0.4%

+0.5%

  JULY 14

-0.4%

+0.3%

+0.6%

+0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.4%

+1.0%

+2.5%

+1.1%

+1.9%

+2.5%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – FIRST NOTICE DAY FRIDAY 8-30-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(15 3/4)

(39 1/2)

(25)

0.0045

12 1/4

4 ¾

8 1/4

% FULL CARRY

(77%)

(227%)

(254%)

67%

60%

14%

27%

 

 

Registrations

7

0

0

8,891

256

Location

Ill River

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

92,388

17,962

18,272

20,968

29,754

15,268

8,544*

   Change

-6,712

-3,697

-3,219

-2,459

-9,813

-196

-299

  • Not yet updated

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 8.26.13

Tues 8.27                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 8.28                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 8.29                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 8.30                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            FIRST NOTICE DAY – SEPT GRAIN FUTURES

 

Week of 9.02.13

Mon 9.02                                           LABOR DAY HOLIDAY

Tues 9.03                  10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Wed 9.04                   3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Thur 9.05                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Fri 9.06                       7:30 am          Export Sales

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report