KCG FUTURES PM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   PM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

 

Bean futures gained on wheat and corn futures in anticipation of large sales expected to be reported in tomorrow morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.  The SX/CZ ratio closed several points higher at 2.99%.  Wheat also lost to corn as India finally confirmed that they would lower their wheat selling price to $260/mt.

Tomorrow is First Notice Day for SX futures deliveries.  Open Interest has been declining quickly as the futures and cash prices converge.

Weather forecasters continue to see beneficial rains in South America beginning tomorrow – it will be interesting to see how much upside follow through the futures market can generate with South American plantings off to a good start.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES CLOSING PRICES AND CHANGE

Close – Rounded

 

CZ3

SX3

SMZ3

BOZ3

WZ3

KWZ3

MWZ3

Today’s Close

$4.30

$12.88

$412

$0.4162

$6.75

$7.48

$7.32

     Change

-2

+9

-1

+0.0065

-6

-4

-5

Total Open Interest

1,321,037

584,429

283,833

326,025

364,164

159,085

52,542

     Change

+12,503

-12,124

-1,842

-750

+107

-83

+639

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUE

Grains

Corn

Soybeans

Soy Meal

Soy Oil

Wheat

KC Wheat

MN Wheat

December (or X), 2013

-0.4 %

+0.7 %

+0.2 %

+1.6 %

-0.9 %

-0.5 %

-0.6 %

July, 2014

-0.6 %

+0.4 %

-0.2 %

+1.4 %

-0.6%

-0.5 %

-0.6 %

December (or X), 2014

-0.6 %

+0.4 %

+0.1 %

+1.2 %

-0.5 %

-0.2 %

-0.8 %

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUE

Macros

 

Dollar

10 Year

S&P 500

Crude Oil

Copper

Gold

Silver

Percent Daily Change

+0.2 %

-0.2 %

-0.6 %

-1.3 %

+1.4 %

-0.7 %

+2.2 %

TERM STRUCTURE

Carries (Inverses) – Rounded

 

Corn

Soybeans

Soy meal

Soy Oil

Wheat

KC Wheat

MN Wheat

November – January

(11)

     Percent Full Carry

(63 %)

December(orX) – March

11 3/4

(26)

(20.8)

0.0065

11 1/4

1 1/4

11

     Percent Full Carry

62 %

(77 %)

(212 %)

97 %

57 %

5 %

52 %

December(orX)–July14

27

(44)

(32)

0.0124

11

(23)

20

     Percent Full Carry

61 %

(65 %)

(139 %)

79 %

23 %

(43 %)

43 %

Dec(orX)–Dec(orX)14

42

(119)

(64)

0.0145

28

(10)

23

     Percent Full Carry

54 %

(115 %)

(162 %)

54 %

35 %

(10 %)

28 %

INTERMARKET SPREADS

                                                                    Rounded

 

W-C

S-W

S-C

S/C

BC*

MW-W

MW-KW

KW-W

December

245

613

857

2.99 %

76

57

-16

73

July 2014

228

557

785

2.72 %

65

67

27

40

Dec 2014

232

465

697

2.48 %

74

53

16

37

*BC = Synthetic Soybean Crush
COMPARISON OF CURRENT FUTURES PRICE AND JANUARY (F) CROP REPORT LOWS – percent of Low
 

Jan (F) Low

Monday

10.21

10.22

10.23

10.24

10.25

Monday

10.28

10.29

10.30

CZ3

570

78 %

77 %

78 %

77 %

77 %

76 %

76 %

75 %

CN4

592

80 %

79 %

80 %

79 %

79 %

78 %

76 %

77 %

 

 

OZ3

338

100 %

101 %

102 %

102 %

99 %

97 %

96 %

99 %

ON4

409

76 %

76 %

78 %

78 %

76 %

76 %

75 %

75 %

 

 

WZ3

779

90 %

90 %

90 %

89 %

89 %

87 %

87 %

87 %

WN4

775

90 %

91 %

91 %

91 %

91 %

89 %

89 %

89 %

 

 

KWZ3

830

92 %

92 %

93 %

92 %

91 %

90 %

91 %

90 %

KWN4

790

94 %

94 %

94 %

94 %

93 %

92 %

92 %

92 %

 

 

MWZ3

858

88 %

88 %

88 %

88 %

87 %

86 %

86 %

85 %

MWN4

890

86 %

87 %

87 %

86 %

86 %

85 %

85 %

85 %

 

 

SX3

1259

104 %

103 %

104 %

104 %

103 %

101 %

102 %

102 %

SN4

1287

98 %

98 %

98 %

98 %

97 %

96 %

96 %

97 %

 

 

SMZ3

353

118 %

118 %

119 %

121 %

120 %

117 %

116 %

117 %

SMN4

365

106 %

106 %

106 %

107 %

106 %

104 %

104 %

104 %

 

 

BOZ3

49.00

85 %

85 %

85 %

84 %

83 %

82 %

84 %

85 %

BON4

49.92

86 %

86 %

86 %

85 %

84 %

83 %

85 %

86 %

  • +   Jan lows occurred in anticipation of bearish Production, Stocks, Winter Wheat Seeding, and WASDE reports.  Instead the Jan reports were friendlier than expected, with less than expected US stocks and tighter world carryover.
  • –  The USDA February report showed just a few changes – more wheat feeding – but was viewed as “not bullish”.  South American and US crop growing weather improved during February.
  • -/+  The feature in the USDA March report was an increase of 100 mln bu of US corn feeding offset by 75 million bushels fewer US corn exports and an additional 25 million bushels of US corn imports.
  •   The March Quarterly Stocks report was a bearish surprise with grain stocks above estimates – and corn stocks well above trade estimates forcing corn limit down.
  • -/+  The April S+D report showed World carryover for corn, beans and wheat above the high end of the analysts’ range of guesses. US carryover didn’t increase as much as suggested by the Stocks report – with bean carryover unchanged at pipeline needs.  Cool, wet weather delayed planting and reduced HRW quality.
  •   The May S+D report showed increased South American corn production, as well as increased South American old crop corn and bean carryover as China reduced old crop imports.  US old crop bean and corn stocks continue to be exceedingly tight.  New crop US and World corn, bean and wheat carryover were larger than the average guesses.  Planting weather is erratic, and analysts expect some corn, bean and spring wheat acres to go unplanted.
  • -/+  The June S+D report showed another increase in ‘12-13 South American corn production, but a decrease in bean production. The ‘13-14 S+D showed reduced Ukraine and Russian wheat production, as well as lower US corn production.  World wheat supplies continue to be abundant, while world corn and bean supplies are expected to become more comfortable as US new crop is harvested this fall.  In contrast, US bean supplies are expected to remain exceedingly tight.
  • +   The 6.28.13 Quarterly Stocks Report was a bullish surprise which showed less than expected corn and bean stocks with greater than expected March-May use.  
  • –  The 6.28.13 Acreage Report was a bearish surprise which showed harvested corn acres up 2% from last year and up 1% for beans.  In addition, yields are expected to be much improved over last year.  Harvested wheat acres are expected to be down 7% from last year – with many less HRW and HRS acres, but many more SRW acres.  This was somewhat offset by heavy old crop HRW and HRS stocks and less abundant SRW stocks.
  • -/+   The July S+D was the most neutral report that the USDA has issued in a while, with changes mostly well within the range of guesses.  New crop US carryover for soybeans remains quite tight (but more abundant than old crop) and corn remains tight (but much more abundant than old crop), while wheat carryover is finally moving back to more normal levels (much less than the overly abundant carryover of the past several years).  Improving weather has supported new crop quality and progress, and weighed on prices. 
  • +     The August S+D Report was a bullish surprise as the USDA cut yield and production estimates for US new crop corn and beans. The result was reduced US and World carryout.  Carryout as a percent of use for new crop beans dropped to 6% (-2%) – indicating exceedingly tight new crop supplies but still better than the 2012-13 C/U% of 4%.  Corn C/U% is also tight at 14 %.  Tight stocks create volatile responses to changes in the weather forecast.  Last Half August US weather turned hot and dry, and sparked a short covering rally.
  • +/-     The September S+D report featured a surprise increase in the new crop corn yield, in contrast to   the new crop bean yield which was reduced as anticipated.  This pushed the SX/CZ ratio up to 3.01%.  Wheat is now being priced as a “food grain” rather than as “feed grain” – as it was the last couple of years when wheat stocks were enormous.
  •      The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed much more corn than expected, slightly more beans than expected, and much less wheat than expected – indicating more than expected wheat feeding.  The Small Grain Summary showed much less than expected HRW production, but much more than expected production of HRS, SRW, and White wheat.
  • The USDA did not issue an October S+D report as the government was shut down for several weeks.  Little by little the USDA has been updating their reports – mostly indicating sizable export business during the shutdown.  Sizable business and still tight pipeline pushed beans and wheat futures up to new recent highs, while corn made new contract lows.

                        

 

 

KCG FUTURES   PM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

 

Bean futures gained on wheat and corn futures in anticipation of large sales expected to be reported in tomorrow morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.  The SX/CZ ratio closed several points higher at 2.99%.  Wheat also lost to corn as India finally confirmed that they would lower their wheat selling price to $260/mt.

Tomorrow is First Notice Day for SX futures deliveries.  Open Interest has been declining quickly as the futures and cash prices converge.

Weather forecasters continue to see beneficial rains in South America beginning tomorrow – it will be interesting to see how much upside follow through the futures market can generate with South American plantings off to a good start.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – SEE BELOW FOR FIRST NOTICE DAY

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

NOV-JAN

(11)

% FULL CARRY

(63%)

 

DEC- MARCH

11 3/4

(20.8)

0.0065

11 1/4

1 1/4

10 1/4

% FULL CARRY

64%

(212%)

97%

57%

5%

52%

 

 

Delivery Stocks

2.5

5.5

59.3

83.5

23.2

 

Registrations

0

0

0

9,930

213

0

Locations

All over

Toledo

 

 

NOV or DEC

OPEN INTERST

702,790

47,842

127,698

129,158

211,473

82,214

27,317

   CHANGE

-5,504

-23,952

-2,065

-1,627

-4,980

-2,304

+269

SX First Notice Day is Thursday 10.31.13 – Last Trading Day is Thursday 11.14.13

Dec First Notice Day is Friday 11.29.13 – Last Trading Day is Friday 12.13.13

Registrations for Delivery against Futures and Open Interest are in # contracts.

Stocks in Delivery elevators are in millions of bushels and are updated on Tuesdays.

 

 

DAILY GRAIN RECEIPTS AND SHIPMENTS AT CBT FUTURES DELIVERY TERMINALS

-in millions of bushels

 

RECEIVED

SHIPPED

NET

 

CORN

0.441

0.242

0.199

SOYBEANS

1.389

1.032

0.357

WHEAT

0.021

0.011

0.010

KC WHEAT

0.204

0.537

-0.333

  • Bean futures delivery terminal receipts and shipments still quite active – 2 barges were loaded out of Chicago.
  • Corn futures delivery terminal receipts continue to increase, but shipments are slow as most unloads are headed to storage
  • Wheat futures delivery terminal receipts and shipments are very slow in Chicago futures delivery terminals, but there were good shipments out of KC delivery terminal.  HRW shipments may be going to US mills or to the export market.

 

 

 

 

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