KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

 Grain futures are trading slightly lower, but still consolidating within Monday’s range.  Traders are reducing recently acquired Long positions as weather forecasters indicate a rain events for both this weekend and next.  The rain event for the holiday weekend is billed as “light” and with relatively little coverage.  The rain event for the following weekend is billed as “significant” and with good coverage.  Obviously weather forecasting is not an exact science and either one or both of these events could be in either the “not enough to do much good” or “million dollar” category.  The market will need to price in this uncertainty before the holiday weekend – and create expectations for next Tuesday’s trade.

The USDA announced overnight export business – selling 120 mmt of beans to China and selling 119 mmt of wheat to Unknown. Most overseas customers seem to be covered through the Fall with lots of new business reported for Jan and Feb.

The US cash market for beans and corn is still at historically high basis levels, but seems to be easing in most locations.  The pace of corn harvesting in the South weighs on southern basis levels.  There are steep inverses into LH September and October.

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+35 CU

+150 CU

+ 160 CZ

+275 CU

+150 CU

BEANS

+60 SX

+160 SX

+98 SX

 

First Notice Day for September futures deliveries is Friday.  The rally in the futures market is helping to reduce September open interest.

Weather forecasts and actual rainfall events are the main market focus.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.83

$13.67

$429

$0.4449

$6.60

$7.11

$7.39

Change

-4

-5

-2

-0.0003

-4

0

+2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

-0.7%

-0.2%

+0.4%

-0.1%

-0.7%

+0.2%

+0.4%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.1%

-0.5%

+0.1%

+0.3%

  JULY 14

-0.6%

+0.1%

+0.0%

-0.1%

-0.4%

+0.1%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

+0.9%

-0.5%

+0.2%

+1.1%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – FIRST NOTICE DAY FRIDAY 8-30-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(13 1/2)

(46 3/4)

(29.4)

0.0047

13 1/4

2 ¾

8

% FULL CARRY

(66%)

(269%)

(298%)

70%

65%

8%

29%

 

 

Registrations

7

0

0

8,791

256

Location

Ill River

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

71,014

13,285

14,976

16,296

19,485

10,044

4,924

   Change

-19,118

-2,775

-3,030

-4,458

-9,434

-4,941

-1,593

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 8.26.13

Tues 8.27                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 8.28                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 8.29                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 8.30                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            FIRST NOTICE DAY – SEPT GRAIN FUTURES

 

Week of 9.02.13

Mon 9.02                                           LABOR DAY HOLIDAY

Tues 9.03                  10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Wed 9.04                   3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Thur 9.05                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Fri 9.06                       7:30 am          Export Sales

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report     

 

 

Week of 9.09.13

Mon 9.09                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.10                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.11                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.12                   7:30 am          Export Sales

11:00 am       USDA SEPTEMBER SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

Fri 9.13                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

Week of 9.16.13

 

Week of 9.23.13

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

 

 

 

 

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