KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Thursday   9.19.13

 

Much of today’s futures trade is motivated by short covering after the Federal Reserve left their QE3 bond buying program unchanged as reported in yesterday afternoon’s press conference.  The immediate response was a sharp break in the dollar and rallies in stocks, bonds, gold, copper and crude oil.  Additional short covering is seen in the metals and grain futures this morning.

The USDA reported another week of impressive US export sales.  Sales are above the average weekly sale needed to hit the US export target for the year, and also above the 5 year average pace of sales.  In addition, another 120 mmt of beans to Unknown destinations were report this morning.

US weather is expected to remain benign with scattered rains and mild temperatures over the next several days.  Next week temperatures are expected to rebound to above average levels.  There is still no damaging frost in the forecast through October 5.

The weather forecast is not as positive in South America as in the US as both Brazil and Argentina would like to have more rain to support planting.

Grain futures remain range bound with the beans and meal off recent highs, while wheat and corn are above recent lows.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.61

$13.58

$430

$0.4298

$6.55

$7.01

$7.08

Change

+4

+11

+4

+0.0027

+9

+9

+8

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+0.9%

+0.6%

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.9%

+0.8%

+0.9%

+0.6%

+1.4%

+1.3%

+1.1%

  JULY 14

+0.7%

+0.4%

+0.3%

+0.5%

+1.2%

+0.9%

+1.3%

DEC 14(or X)

+0.7%

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.4%

+1.3%

+1.3%

+0.4%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.5%

+1.9%

+4.6%

+8.2%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-20 CZ

+20 CZ

+10 CZ

+50 CZ

+125 CZ

+50 CZ

 change

0

-15

-15

-5

-10

0

 

BEANS

+20 SX

+0 SX

+50 SX

+100 SX

 change

0

0

-25

+24

 

 

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 9.12.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-13

17

18

20

Needed to hit USDA target

(14)

(11)

(13)

 

TOTAL SALES

520

807

601

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1225

1385

1100

 

PERCENT SOLD

42 %

58 %

55 %

5 year average percent sold

34 %

43 %

48 %

 

UNSOLD

705

578

499

UNSHIPPED

493

805

240

 

SHIPPED THIS WEEK

20

2

34

Needed to ship to hit USDA target

(24)

(27)

(21)

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

2 %

32 %

5 year average percent sold

3 %

1 %

27 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

15 %

5 %

23 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

14 %

19 %

20 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 37  corn and beans = 50

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

13

7

0.4

2

4

(NEED TO HIT USDA)

(5)

(4)

(0.5)

(2)

(2)

 

TOTAL SALES

231

105

7

209

75

USDA ESTIMATE

405

235

25

285

150

 

PERCENT SOLD

57 %

45 %

28 %

73 %

50 %

 

UNSOLD

174

130

18

76

75

UNSHIPPED

61

48

3

76

34

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

21 %

35 %

26 %

18 %

19 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year: 37

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.16.13

Thur 9.19                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.20                      7:30 am          Cattle on Feed Report

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY OCTOBER OPTIONS

 

Week of 9.23.13

Mon 9.23                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.24                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.25                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.26                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.27                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

  

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