KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Tuesday   9.10.13

 

Grain futures are continuing to consolidate with prices trading on both sides of a narrow range.  Beans and meal are trading a bit lower, while corn and wheat are trading a bit higher.   Most focus is on the dramatic pull back in old crop corn and bean basis levels this week, and the accompanying erosion of SU-SX and CU-CZ spread inverses.  In addition, the bean/corn ratios are narrowing up a bit after yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Quality and Progress Report indicated less bean quality deterioration than expected.

Analyst estimates for the USDA September Supply-Demand Report are below.  Although traders expect corn and bean production and carryover to be reduced, they also think much of this tightening of fundamentals to be incorporated in current prices.

–       Helen Pound

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.63

$13.49

$424

$0.4295

$6.42

$6.88

$7.03

Change

-1

-7

-2

-0.0022

+1

-0

+0

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

-0.5%

-1.3%

+0.1%

+0.2%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.1%

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.5%

+0.1%

-0.1%

+0.1%

  JULY 14

-0.1%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.6%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.0%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.1%

-0.3%

+0.7%

-2.6%

+0.2%

-1.1%

-2.7%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – LAST TRADE DAY FRIDAY 9-13-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(12)

(38 1/2)

(41.5)

0.0034

12 1/4

(13)

4

% FULL CARRY

(59%)

(221%)

(421%)

51%

60%

(39%)

14%

 

DELIVERIES

 Tues 9.10.03

4

0

0

13

124

0

0

 Mon 9.09.13

4

0

0

31

121

0

0

 Fri 9.06.13

2

0

0

247

159

1

0

 Thur 9.05.13

4

0

0

5

199

8

0

 Wed 9.04.13

4

0

0

376

200

8

0

 Tue 9.03.13

7

0

0

344

0

15

139

 Fri 8.30.13

0

0

0

651

0

19

106

 

Oldest Long

3.28.13

6.24.13

2.04.13

9.05.13

9.06.13

7.15.13

8.26.13

 

 

Registrations

4

0

0

8,380

456

31

Location

Utica

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

7,747

701

933

502

350

420

5

   Change

-2,634

-476

-604

-268

-119

-127

-11

 

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

(-10 CU)

(+38 CU)

(+68 CU)

(+167 CU)

(+102 CU)

(+93 CU)

 

+2 CZ

+50 CZ

+80 CZ

+179 CZ

+115 CZ

+105 CZ

 

BEANS

(+2 SU)

(+37 SU)

(+97 SU)

(+50 SU)

 

+37 SX

+75 SX

+135 SX

+88SX

 

 

2012-13 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

0.716

0.579-0.800

0.719

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.124

0.107-0.130

0.125

0.169

0.215

 

2013-14 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

1.697

1.147-2.000

1.837

0.719

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.161

0.105-0.200

0.220

0.125

0.169

0.215

WHEAT

0.556

0.477-0.600

0.551

0.718

0.743

0.862

 

 

2013-14 US PRODUCTION (billion bushels)

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

1.636

13.33-14.01

13.763

10.780

12,358

12,447

BEANS

3.149

2.98-3.239

3.255

3.015

3.094

3.329

 

2013-14 US YIELD (bushels/acre)

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

153.9

150.2-158.0

154.4

123.4

147.2

152.8

BEANS

41.3

39.0-42.4

42.6

39.6

41.9

43.5

 

 

2012-13 WORLD CARRYOVER (mmt)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

123.6

123.0-125.0

123.1

132.4

127.9

BEANS

61.8

59.7-62.7

62.2

54.9

69.9

 

2013-14 WORLD CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

Sept

Average

Range

Aug

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

148.9

139.3-153.0

150.2

123.1

131.9

127.9

BEANS

71.3

67.1-73.0

72.3

61.21

55.1

69.9

WHEAT

173.4

172.0-175.7

173.0

174.4

199.4

198.0

 

CARRYOVER AS A PERCENT OF USE – From August Report

 

’13-14

’13-14

 

’12-13

’12-13

 

’11-12

’10-11

 

Aug

July

 

Aug

July

 

 

 

WORLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Coarse Grains

13 %

13 %

 

12 %

12 %

 

13 %

13 %

  Beans

19 %

20 %

 

17 %

17 %

 

16 %

20 %

  Wheat

20 %

20 %

 

21 %

21 %

 

23 %

25 %

US

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Corn

14%

15 %

 

6%

7 %

 

8 %

9 %

  Beans

7 %

9 %

 

4 %

4 %

 

5 %

7 %

  Wheat

23 %

24 %

 

30 %

30 %

 

33 %

36 %

WHEAT BY CLASS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  HRW

21 %

22 %

 

34 %

34 %

 

37 %

38 %

  HRS

33 %

36 %

 

31 %

31 %

 

32 %

29 %

  Durum

22 %

19 %

 

19 %

19 %

 

26 %

25 %

  SRW

19 %

20 %

 

25 %

25 %

 

39 %

51 %

  White

19 %

20 %

 

24 %

24 %

 

19 %

31 %

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.09.13

Tues 9.10                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.11                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.12                   7:30 am          Export Sales

11:00 am       USDA SEPTEMBER SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

Fri 9.13                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY SEPTEMBER FUTURES

 

Week of 9.16.13

Mon 9.16                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.17                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Wed 9.18                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Thur 9.19                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.20                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY OCTOBER OPTIONS

 

Week of 9.23.13

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

 

 

 

 

This communication has been prepared by the trading, market making and/or the sales personnel (“Trader”) of Knight Capital Americas, LLC. (“KCA”), a subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”). The information contained herein may be the personal perspective of the KCG Trader and/or commentary compiled from public sources. The information from public sources is believed to be reliable but KCG does not guarantee or represent its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and views expressed by the individual trader do not represent the opinions and views of KCG, its affiliates, officers or other personnel. No responsibility and no express or limited liability is assumed jointly or individually for any losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions, delays in the receipt of the information, or any actions taken in reliance upon the information. The information contained herein does not provide investment advice and is not a sufficient basis for an investment decision. No information contained herein should be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or product. Indications of interest, opinions or views expressed by the trader are not firm orders or quotes and may not be current. No responsibility is assumed to maintain and/or update the information. KCA most likely makes a market in the securities mentioned in this document and its personnel, including those involved in the preparation or issuance of the material may take a position or action which may be inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed therein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or to request a copy of this document should be referred to your KCG Representative.

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