KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Friday   9.06.13

 

Grain futures traded a tad higher in overnight trade, but are mixed now that the market has resumed trading at 8:30 am.  Beans and meal are slightly lower, while corn and wheat are slightly higher.  This looks like a bit of end of week profit taking after the bean/corn ratio moved to a new high close yesterday.

Another reason the beans have been gaining on corn is the pace of export sales.  This morning’s Weekly US Export Sales Report showed a continuation of very impressive US bean sales with total weekly sales at 31 million bushels – now at 54% of the USDA sales projection for the year.  In contrast, total corn sales were 8 million bushels- just 37% of the USDA projection for the year.  Clearly Brazil and the Ukraine are eating into US corn export market share.  Wheat sales also continue to be robust, with impressive HRW sales to Brazil.

This morning US domestic bean basis levels are a bit firmer, while corn basis levels are deflating dramatically – especially central Illinois processors and barge loading stations.  Both export and domestic elevator SRW basis levels continue to be soft, while mills continue to pay healthy premiums for good quality wheat.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded  UPDATED 9 AM

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.62

$13.64

$426

$0.4385

$6.41

$6.91

$7.12

Change

+1

-3

-3

+0.0032

0

+2

+1

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

-1.0%

+0.3%

-0.5%

+0.7%

+0.7%

+0.3%

-0.4%

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.2%

-0.2%

-0.7%

+0.7%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.1%

  JULY 14

+0.1%

-0.6%

-1.3%

+0.7%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.2%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.6%

+0.7%

-0.5%

+1.0%

+0.5%

+1.2%

+2.7%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – LAST TRADE DAY FRIDAY 9-13-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(23 3/4)

(61)

(50.7)

0.0034

12 1/2

(12)

5 1/4

% FULL CARRY

(116%)

(351%)

(514%)

51%

61%

(36%)

19%

 

DELIVERIES

 Fri 9.06.13

2

0

0

247

159

1

0

 Thur 9.05.13

4

0

0

5

199

8

0

 Wed 9.04.13

4

0

0

376

200

8

0

 Tue 9.03.13

7

0

0

344

0

15

139

 Fri 8.30.13

0

0

0

651

0

19

106

 

Oldest Long

2.22.13

6.17.13

2.04.13

9.03.13

8.29.13

7.15.13

8.26.13

 

 

Registrations

5

0

0

8,548

456

31

Location

Ill River

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

11,576

1800

2,179

924

644

790

36

   Change

-3,748

-633

-433

-863

-298

-440

-2

 

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

(+22 CU)

(+96 CU)

(+164 CU)

(+114 CU)

(+149 CU)

 

+15 CZ

+140 CZ

+90 CZ

+194 CZ

+135 CZ

+150CZ

 

BEANS

(-6 SU)

(+124 SU)

(+77 SU)

 

+40 SX

+84 SX

+170 SX

+140 SX

 

 

2012-2013 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 8.29.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

TOTAL OLD+NEW WEEKLY SALES

8

31

28

TRADE ESTIMATE

14-27

18-34

17-22

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2012-13

-4.5

-0.1

Complete

 

TOTAL SALES

747

1366

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

715

1315

 

PERCENT SOLD

105 %

104 %

 

UNSOLD

-32

-51

UNSHIPPED

39

35

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

99 %

101 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

6 %

4 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

12 %

17 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

6 %

43 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 0  corn and beans = 0

 

2012-13 MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)             

MEAL

OIL

TOTAL WEEKLY SALES

58

9

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(0)

(7)

 

TOTAL SALES

10090

938

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

9888

975

 

PERCENT SOLD

102 %

96 %

5 yr Average percent Sold

104 %

104 %

 

UNSOLD

-202

37

UNSHIPPED

791

74

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

94 %

88 %

5 yr Average percent Shipped

95 %

93 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

10 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

5 %

7 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

27 %

10 %

#  weeks left in marketing year:  4

 

 

NEW CROP EXPORT SALES

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 8.29.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-14

13

31

25

(NEEDED TO HIT USDA EST)

(14)

 

TOTAL SALES

456

755

581

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1225

1385

1100

 

PERCENT SOLD

37 %

54 %

53%

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

14 %

7 %

23 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

13 %

19 %

20 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

10 %

44 %

46 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year:  39

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

15

1

0.7

6

2

(NEED TO HIT USDA)

(5)

(4)

(0.5)

(2)

(2)

 

TOTAL SALES

206

95

7

205

69

USDA ESTIMATE

405

235

25

285

150

 

PERCENT SOLD

50 %

40 %

28 %

72 %

46 %

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

21 %

33 %

22 %

19 %

19 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year:  39

 

MEAL AND OIL SALES  (in 000 mt)             

MEAL

OIL

WEEKLY SALES

84

-2

 

TOTAL SALES

1923

26

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

8800

590

PERCENT SOLD

22 %

4 %

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

>1 %

8 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

4 %

6 %

 

USDA ESTIMATE  OF  US EXPORTS

AS A % OF US TOTAL USE

24 %

7 %

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.02.13

Fri 9.06                       7:30 am          Export Sales

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report     

 

Week of 9.09.13

Mon 9.09                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.10                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.11                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.12                   7:30 am          Export Sales

11:00 am       USDA SEPTEMBER SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

Fri 9.13                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY SEPTEMBER FUTURES

 

Week of 9.16.13

Mon 9.16                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.17                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Wed 9.18                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Thur 9.19                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.20                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY SEPTEMBER OPTIONS

 

Week of 9.23.13

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

 

 

 

 

This communication has been prepared by the trading, market making and/or the sales personnel (“Trader”) of Knight Capital Americas, LLC. (“KCA”), a subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”). The information contained herein may be the personal perspective of the KCG Trader and/or commentary compiled from public sources. The information from public sources is believed to be reliable but KCG does not guarantee or represent its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and views expressed by the individual trader do not represent the opinions and views of KCG, its affiliates, officers or other personnel. No responsibility and no express or limited liability is assumed jointly or individually for any losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions, delays in the receipt of the information, or any actions taken in reliance upon the information. The information contained herein does not provide investment advice and is not a sufficient basis for an investment decision. No information contained herein should be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or product. Indications of interest, opinions or views expressed by the trader are not firm orders or quotes and may not be current. No responsibility is assumed to maintain and/or update the information. KCA most likely makes a market in the securities mentioned in this document and its personnel, including those involved in the preparation or issuance of the material may take a position or action which may be inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed therein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or to request a copy of this document should be referred to your KCG Representative.

KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) is comprised of trading and related entities under common control such as Knight Capital Americas, LLC, KCG Europe Limited (a U.K. registered broker-dealer) and KCG Hotspot FX LLC.

© 2013 KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) All rights reserved. Provided by Knight Capital Americas LLC, member of FINRA and SIPC. For additional information about KCG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: Euronext: KCG) please visit www.kcg.com.