KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Wednesday   9.04.13

 

Grain futures continued to back off from highs made Tuesday morning.  SX have pulled back to the middle of the range put in a week ago Monday and are still around $2.10 higher than August lows.  CZ is trading at new recent lows, about 25 cent above their August lows.  WZ is trading at new recent lows, about a dime above their August lows.  All in all, the general price level is easing lower while the bean market is building premiums to ration tight supplies.

The US weather forecast shows very little rain over the next few days, but a possibility of some scattered rains this weekend. There is no US freeze yet forecast – so traders are assuming at least another two weeks in the growing season.

Cash markets are irregularly lower as corn and bean harvest picks up pace in the south.  US and South American farmers will continue to try and capture premiums for quick shipment.

The focus of the futures market may be shifting more toward demand issues than supply issues.  Brazilian trade data for August shows bean shipments at record large and 91% of the USDA projection.  Analyst think the USDA Brazilian export number may be 1-2 mmt too low and suggests Brazil will continue to ship 1-2 mmt per month through the fall.  Corn shipments are also record large and at 27% of the USDA forecast.  Analysts suggest the USDA Brazilian corn export number may be 1 mmt too low and suggests Brazil will ship about 3 mmt per month through the fall and winter.  There is also aggressive competition in the corn market from the Ukraine.

ADM delivered 200 WU in Toledo.  Typically in two tier quality markets as has developed in the SRW cash market, lower quality grain will get delivered.  The SRW has been struggling with test weight below 58 pounds, as well as some high vomitoxin.

The real head scratcher is why the 7 CU contracts sitting on the Illinois River were delivered yesterday or even more mystifying – why 4 were redelivered against the CU today.  Why would someone take delivery versus the CN and then redeliver them against the CU?  Was there never enough premium to truck them to a desperate   processor?

–       Helen Pound

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+20 CU

+105 CZ

unq

+140 CZ

+151 CZ

 

(+86 CU)

(+121 CU)

(+132 CU)

 

BEANS

+55 SX

+170 SX

unq

 

(+7 SU)

(+122 SU)

 

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.72

$13.75

$434

$0.4406

$6.45

$6.97

$7.22

Change

-3

-12

-5

-0.0013

-2

-2

-3

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

-1.5%

-0.9%

-0.9%

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-2.3%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.6%

-0.8%

-1.2%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.4%

  JULY 14

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.9%

-0.1%

-0.5%

-0.4%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-1.2%

-2.2%

-1.4%

-3.5%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – FIRST NOTICE DAY FRIDAY 8-30-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(18 1/2)

(48)

(47.5)

0.0038

11

1

21 1/4

% FULL CARRY

(90%)

(276%)

(482%)

57%

54%

3%

77%

 

DELIVERIES

 Wed 9.04.13

4

0

0

376

200

8

0

 Tue 9.03.13

7

0

0

344

0

15

139

 Fri 8.30.13

0

0

0

651

0

19

106

 

Oldest Long

11.15.12

3.28.13

9.28.12

8.29.13

7.01.13

7.09.13

8.08.13

 

 

Registrations

7

0

0

8,548

456

Location

Ill River

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

19,429

3,328

3,148

2,753

1,973

1,518

335*

   Change

-5,946

-1,997

-932

-1,517

-579

-824

-364

*Not yet updated

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.02.13

Wed 9.04                   3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Thur 9.05                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Fri 9.06                       7:30 am          Export Sales

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report     

 

 

Week of 9.09.13

Mon 9.09                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.10                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.11                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.12                   7:30 am          Export Sales

11:00 am       USDA SEPTEMBER SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

Fri 9.13                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

Week of 9.16.13

 

Week of 9.23.13

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

 

 

 

 

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