KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Wednesday   10.31.13

 

Grain futures prices went into the “pause” with beans and corn higher, while wheat prices were lower.  Fifteen minutes before the “pause” the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report covering the past three weeks and getting data up to date.  There had been rumors of large sales while the government was shutdown and the USDA unable to share market news, but the big surprise this morning was that there was more corn than beans sold – with Mexico was the major corn buyer.  Yesterday the SX/CZ ratio had cranked up to a recent high of 3.00%, which quickly eroded as the export sales report was unveiled.  Although wheat sales were good, they were dramatically less than corn and bean sales.  This morning the USDA also announced two additional corn sales – 174,000 mt sold to South Korea and 123,040 mt sold to Japan.

The Export Sales report shows 86% of expected bean sales on the books – well ahead of its 58% average, 66% of expected corn sales on the books – well ahead of its 44% average, and 69% of expected wheat sales on the books – a bit ahead of it s 61% average.  This is a big problem for beans as their supply/demand balance is already exceedingly tight.  Also note that bean and corn export sales are at the beginning of their vessel loading programs, while wheat export sales are nearing the end of their program.

Note no SX deliveries today.   – Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.35

$13.93

$411

$0.4182

$6.73

$7.46

$7.32

Change

+5

+6

-1

+0.0020

-2

-2

0

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  DEC 13(or X)

+1.1%

+0.4%

-0.2%

+0.5%

-0.3%

-0.2%

+0.0%

  JULY 14

+0.8%

-0.1%

-0.5%

+0.5%

-0.3%

-0.2%

na

DEC 14(or X)

+0.6%

-0.3%

-0.7%

+0.5%

-0.1%

-0.2%

na

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.3%

+0.2%

-0.1%

-0.7%

-0.7%

-1.7%

-4.1%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+4 CZ

+0 CZ

+18 CZ

+25 CZ

+105 CZ

+15 CZ

 change

0

0

0

0

0

+5

 

BEANS

+18 SX

+10 SX

+15 SX

+9 SX

 change

0

0

+2

+1

 

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – SEE BELOW FOR FIRST NOTICE DAY

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

NOV-JAN

(14)

% FULL CARRY

(80%)

 

DEC- MARCH

11 1/4

(21)

0.0063

11 3/4

1

11

% FULL CARRY

59%

(214%)

94%

59%

4%

54%

 

 

Deliveries

  Thurs 10.31

0

Oldest Long

11.28.12

 

Delivery Stocks

2.5

5.5

59.3

83.5

23.2

 

Registrations

0

0

0

9,930

213

0

Locations

All over

Toledo

 

 

NOV or DEC

OPEN INTERST

693,800

26,906

126,564

130,374

209,379

79,714

27,594

   CHANGE

-89,990

-20,936

-1,1134

+1,216

-2,094

-2,500

+277

SX First Notice Day is Thursday 10.31.13 – Last Trading Day is Thursday 11.14.13

Dec First Notice Day is Friday 11.29.13 – Last Trading Day is Friday 12.13.13

Registrations for Delivery against Futures and Open Interest are in # contracts.

Stocks in Delivery elevators are in millions of bushels.

 

 

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 3 Weeks ended 10.24.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-13

179.3*

174.2

48.1

Needed to hit USDA target

(14)

(8)

(12)

 

TOTAL SALES – 3 weeks

808

1184

753

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1225

1370

1100

 

PERCENT SOLD

66 %

86 %

69 %

5 year average percent sold

44 %

58 %

61 %

 

UNSOLD

417

186

347

UNSHIPPED

634

929

188

 

SHIPPED THIS WEEK – 3 weeks

82

82

60

Needed to ship to hit USDA target

(24)

(28)

(18)

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

14 %

19 %

51 %

5 year average percent shipped

15 %

15 %

42 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

15 %

5 %

23 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

14 %

19 %

20 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF

US TOTAL USE

10 %

44 %

46 %

*There was another 29.1mln bu new crop corn sold

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 31  corn and beans = 44

 

Corn sales:  Mexico (1689), Japan (863), China (778), Columbia (242) and others

Beans sales:  China (2112), Unknown (550), Mexico (284), Russia (270) and others

Wheat sales:  Brazil (393), Unknown (182), Philippines (132), Nigeria (121) and others

 

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

21

11

0.9

2

13

(NEED TO HIT USDA)

(4)

(3)

(0.5)

(1)

(2)

 

TOTAL SALES

282

141

9

220

101

USDA ESTIMATE

405

235

25

285

150

 

PERCENT SOLD

70 %

60 %

36 %

77 %

67 %

 

UNSOLD

123

94

16

65

49

UNSHIPPED

60

49

3

42

35

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

21 %

35 %

26 %

18 %

19 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF USE

43 %

46 %

24 %

49 %

56 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year: 31

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS –

 

Week of 10.28.13

Thur 10.31                                         FIRST NOTICE DAY FOR SX FUTURES

FOMC MEETING

7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.01                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 11.04.13

Mon 11.04                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 11.05                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 11.06                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 11.07                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.08                    11:00 AM       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

11:00 AM       USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

This communication has been prepared by the trading, market making and/or the sales personnel (“Trader”) of Knight Capital Americas, LLC. (“KCA”), a subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”). The information contained herein may be the personal perspective of the KCG Trader and/or commentary compiled from public sources. The information from public sources is believed to be reliable but KCG does not guarantee or represent its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and views expressed by the individual trader do not represent the opinions and views of KCG, its affiliates, officers or other personnel. No responsibility and no express or limited liability is assumed jointly or individually for any losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions, delays in the receipt of the information, or any actions taken in reliance upon the information. The information contained herein does not provide investment advice and is not a sufficient basis for an investment decision. No information contained herein should be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or product. Indications of interest, opinions or views expressed by the trader are not firm orders or quotes and may not be current. No responsibility is assumed to maintain and/or update the information. KCA most likely makes a market in the securities mentioned in this document and its personnel, including those involved in the preparation or issuance of the material may take a position or action which may be inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed therein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or to request a copy of this document should be referred to your KCG Representative.

KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) is comprised of trading and related entities under common control such as Knight Capital Americas, LLC, KCG Europe Limited (a U.K. registered broker-dealer) and KCG Hotspot FX LLC.

© 2013 KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) All rights reserved. Provided by Knight Capital Americas LLC, member of FINRA and SIPC. For additional information about KCG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: Euronext: KCG) please visit www.kcg.com.