KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Tuesday   10.29.13

 

Overnight futures trade in the grain markets lacked much definition as price ranges were quite narrow with trade either side of unchanged.  “Turn around Tuesday” seems to be “Consolidation Tuesday” as traders focus on profit taking rather than building new positions.

Good northern hemisphere harvesting and winter wheat planting coupled with good rains in South America to support corn and bean planting seem to be shifting ideas on supply-demand balances.  Instead of US corn prices needing to fall to world levels to buy demand, prices in the Ukraine and Brazil have been increasing – to the point where South Korea bought US corn for March for the first time in well over a year.  On the other hand, there has a lot of “bullish” bean news in the last several days, yet the SX-SF is just at a small inverse.  Note that SX open interest has been huge – but is declining rapidly as First Notice Day approaches.  It appears that SX Long open interest became so large that it became its own worst enemy as “investors” really don’t want to take delivery of huge quantities of beans as the South American growing season gets off to a good start.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.29

$13.70

$411

$0.4059

$6.80

$7.50

$7.38

Change

-2

-1

-4

+0.0023

-1

-1

+2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.4%

-0.1%

-0.8%

+0.6%

-0.2%

-0.1%

+0.2%

  JULY 14

-0.3%

+0.1%

-0.3%

+0.7%

-0.0%

-0.1%

na

DEC 14(or X)

-0.3%

+0.3%

+0.4%

+0.5%

-0.1%

na

-0.0%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.3%

-0.1%

+0.1%

-0.5%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.4%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+4 CZ

+0 CZ

+18 CZ

+25 CZ

+100 CZ

+10 CZ

 change

0

0

0

+3

-10

0

 

BEANS

+20 SX

+15 SX

+10 SX

+5 SX

 change

-10

0

-6

0

 

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – SEE BELOW FOR FIRST NOTICE DAY

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

NOV-JAN

(3 1/2)

% FULL CARRY

(20%)

 

DEC- MARCH

12 3/4

(20.3)

0.0070

11 1/2

3/4

11 1/4

% FULL CARRY

67%

(207%)

104%

58%

3%

56%

 

 

Registrations

0

0

0

9,930

213

0

Locations

All over

Toledo

 

 

NOV or DEC

OPEN INTERST

707,995

71,381

130,206

130,844

216,538

84,596

27,292*

   CHANGE

+745

-38,151

-3,313

-795

-7,232

-2,292

+85

SX First Notice Day is Thursday 10.31.13 – Last Trading Day is Thursday 11.14.13

Dec First Notice Day is Friday 11.29.13 – Last Trading Day is Friday 12.13.13

*Not updated

 

 

 

WEEKLY USDA CROP QUALITY AND PROGRESS REPORT

CORN

  • 59 % harvested versus 62% average
  • 98% mature versus 97% average
  • Quality rating at 101% of average – up 1%
    • Iowa 94% quality rating – up 2% – 99% mature  –  55% harvested (60% ave)
    • Illinois 105% quality rating – unchanged, 100% mature – 74% harvested (68% ave)

BEANS

  • 77% harvested versus 77% average
  • 98% dropping leaves versus 99% average
    • Iowa 87% harvested versus 86% ave
    • Illinois 85% harvested versus 77% ave
    • Recent freeze in northern states should help dry down and promote harvest

HRS

  • Harvest complete

HRW

  • 65% emerged versus 64% average
  • Winter wheat condition rating at 101% of normal – down 2% – but well above last year’s 91%
    • SRW in better condition (103% of normal) than HRW (100% of normal)

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS –

 

Week of 10.28.13

Tues 10.29                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Wed 10.30                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.31                                         FIRST NOTICE DAY FOR SX FUTURES

FOMC MEETING

7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.01                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 11.04.13

Mon 11.04                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 11.05                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 11.06                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 11.07                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.08                    11:00 AM       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

11:00 AM       USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

This communication has been prepared by the trading, market making and/or the sales personnel (“Trader”) of Knight Capital Americas, LLC. (“KCA”), a subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”). The information contained herein may be the personal perspective of the KCG Trader and/or commentary compiled from public sources. The information from public sources is believed to be reliable but KCG does not guarantee or represent its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and views expressed by the individual trader do not represent the opinions and views of KCG, its affiliates, officers or other personnel. No responsibility and no express or limited liability is assumed jointly or individually for any losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions, delays in the receipt of the information, or any actions taken in reliance upon the information. The information contained herein does not provide investment advice and is not a sufficient basis for an investment decision. No information contained herein should be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or product. Indications of interest, opinions or views expressed by the trader are not firm orders or quotes and may not be current. No responsibility is assumed to maintain and/or update the information. KCA most likely makes a market in the securities mentioned in this document and its personnel, including those involved in the preparation or issuance of the material may take a position or action which may be inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed therein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or to request a copy of this document should be referred to your KCG Representative.

KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) is comprised of trading and related entities under common control such as Knight Capital Americas, LLC, KCG Europe Limited (a U.K. registered broker-dealer) and KCG Hotspot FX LLC.

© 2013 KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) All rights reserved. Provided by Knight Capital Americas LLC, member of FINRA and SIPC. For additional information about KCG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: Euronext: KCG) please visit www.kcg.com.