KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Wednesday   10.24.13

 

After futures trade resumed after the “pause”, grain futures are mixed – trading either side of unchanged.  Beans are a bit higher, while corn is a bit lower pushing the SX/CZ to 2.97%.  Chi and Mpls wheat are a bit higher, while KC wheat is a bit lower – profit taking after overnight temps in Argentina caused patchy frost but damage not likely.

Domestic cash market basis bids are steady to higher for both beans and corn.  This is odd basis behavior as there is great harvesting weather and bean harvest is at “gut slot” and corn harvest approaching “gut slot”.  Clearly end users want coverage before harvest is over even if they pay basis levels that are historically high.  Domestic markets are paying what they have to in order to buy supplies away from the export market.

This morning export basis levels are steady for corn and wheat, but a tad softer for beans.

This morning the USDA release weekly export sales data or the week ending Oct 3 and say that they will bring weekly data up to date next Thursday.  The market has been rumoring giant corn sales in early October and today’s report confirmed those sales with 428,100 mt sold to Unknown and 170,000 mt to China with total weekly corn sales of 53 million bushels – well above the 14 mln bu needed to hit the USDA yearly target – “buy the rumor – sell the fact”.  Bean and wheat sales were also well above the average needed to hit the USDA yearly target, but in line with their recent pace.  Total bean sales are 74% of the USDA target, wheat at 64%, and corn at 51%.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.41

$13.10

$423

$0.4136

$6.99

$7.67

$7.56

Change

-2

-0

+1

-0.0014

-3

-4

-2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.5%

-0.1%

+0.3%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.3%

  JULY 14

-0.4%

-0.1%

+0.1%

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.4%

+0.1%

DEC 14(or X)

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.6%

-0.3%

-0.4%

+0.4%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.1%

-0.8%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+0.4%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+0 CZ

+3 CZ

+18 CZ

+18 CZ

+100 CZ

+10 CZ

 change

0

0

+8

0

+7

0

 

BEANS

+32 SX

+15 SX

+13 SX

+5 SX

 change

+2

0

+3

0

 

 

 

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 10.03.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-13

53

34

24

Needed to hit USDA target

(14)

(8)

(12)

 

TOTAL SALES

629

1010

705

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1225

1370

1100

 

PERCENT SOLD

51 %

74 %

64 %

5 year average percent sold

40 %

51 %

56 %

 

UNSOLD

596

360

395

UNSHIPPED

537

943

200

 

SHIPPED THIS WEEK

24

31

31

Needed to ship to hit USDA target

(24)

(28)

(18)

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

7 %

5 %

45 %

5 year average percent shipped

10 %

5 %

36 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

15 %

5 %

23 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

14 %

19 %

20 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF

US TOTAL USE

10 %

44 %

46 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 34  corn and beans = 47

 

Corn sales:  Unknown, China, Japan, Columbia, Mexico and others

Beans sales:  China, Unknown, Japan and others

Wheat sales:  Brazil, South Korea, Nigeria and others

 

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

13

5

0.8

3

3

(NEED TO HIT USDA)

(4)

(3)

(0.5)

(1)

(2)

 

TOTAL SALES

262

129

8

218

88

USDA ESTIMATE

405

235

25

285

150

 

PERCENT SOLD

64 %

55 %

32 %

76 %

59 %

 

UNSOLD

143

106

17

67

62

UNSHIPPED

59

45

3

61

32

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

21 %

35 %

26 %

18 %

19 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF USE

43 %

46 %

24 %

49 %

56 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year: 34

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS –

 

Week of 10.21.13

Thur 10.24                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.25                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                                LAST TRADING DAY NOVEMBER GRAIN OPTIONS

 

Week of 10.28.13

Mon 10.28                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.29                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

FOMC MEETING

Wed 10.30                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.31                                         FIRST NOTICE DAY FOR SX FUTURES

FOMC MEETING

7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.01                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 11.04.13

Mon 11.04                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 11.05                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 11.06                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 11.07                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 11.08                    11:00 AM       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

11:00 AM       USDA CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

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