KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Tuesday   10.08.13

 

As the futures prices “pause” grain futures prices are mixed with wheat and beans higher, while corn is lower.  US wheat futures are following EU wheat higher with EU wheat making new highs on worries about Black Sea region new crop wheat planting.  Beans are higher as China returns from holiday as prices there edge higher.

Although overnight prices were higher, they seemed to be probing higher price levels rather than finding good follow through buying.  KWZ didn’t trade above Thursday’s high, and SX once again was unable to hold over $13, and CZ found resistance at $4.50.  Analysts think the Fund short in wheat futures has been drastically reduced – now with possibly only about a 8000 contract short position.  Given the bulk of the corn and bean harvest ahead and the big premiums for US wheat over competing nations, it’s hard to see significant follow through buying at these price levels.  On the other hand, new crop wheat futures are continuing to make new recent highs.

The US weather map shows a second day of clear weather allowing farmers to return to harvesting after weekend rains.  US weather is expected to remain clear until another system brings light, scattered rain next Sunday-Tuesday.  Still no general frost/freeze events expected for at least another week.  Although the USDA did not issue a Crop Progress report yesterday analysts believe that corn and bean harvesting is approach 25% complete and winter wheat planting is 55-60% complete.

Overseas weather appears to be improving.  Russia and the Ukraine are expected to be drier and warmer to allow more wheat planting and corn harvesting.

Export and domestic basis levels are mostly steady as recently harvested grain fills the pipeline.  FGIS inspection data available yesterday indicates a big increase in corn and bean export loadings and continued heavy wheat loadings.  Many farmers are reported to be storing grain to earn basis gains or hoping to profit if the South American growing season deteriorates.  On the other hand, analysts expect next year’s carryover to improve dramatically – from a corn C/U% this year of about 15% to about 20% next year – and further weigh on prices as spring planting approaches.

The US government is still in shutdown mode and the USDA has announced that the October Supply-Demand Report will be delayed.  Reports for better than expected corn and bean yields continue.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.47

$12.99

$421

$0.4016

$6.99

$7.62

$7.55

Change

-2

+2

0

+0.0026

+4

+6

+5

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+0.1%

-0.9%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.5%

+0.2%

+0.0%

+0.7%

+0.5%

+0.7%

+0.6%

  JULY 14

-0.5%

+0.0%

-0.4%

+0.7%

+0.3%

+0.4%

+0.6%

DEC 14(or X)

-0.5%

+0.1%

-0.2%

+0.9%

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.9%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.1%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.7%

+0.5%

-0.2%

+0.1%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

Champaign ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-12 CZ

-10 CZ

-10 CZ

+28 CZ

+92 CZ

+0 CZ

 change

0

0

0

-2

0

0

 

BEANS

+20 SX

-5 SX

-12 SX

+1 SX

 change

+2

0

0

+6

 

MGEX GRAIN INDEX

AVERAGE CASH PRICE BID AT MANY ELEVATORS (# elevators included in index)

 

10.07.13

10.04.13

9.09.13

10.8.12

Year’s Low – High

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN (2776)

431.11

425.21

505.87

724.59

421.15 – 753.11

BEANS (2452)

1249.94

1248.08

1402.51

1501.20

1219.87 – 1524.20

SRW (461)

654.72

646.95

598.34

822.72

597.95 – 848.00

HRW (686)

727.37

722.27

667.30

822.78

664.26 – 866.88

HRS (349)

708.79

704.68

667.25

849.95

654.18 – 899.34

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 10.07.13 – USDA reports cancelled until government shutdown is over

Tues 10.08                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.09                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.10                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.11                    11:00 am       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT – delayed

CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

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